Well Apparently EVERYBODY'S Retiring...

Rep. Jim Matheson (D-UT)

Meatloaf's famed lyrics "two out of three ain't bad" couldn't have been more fitting with today's announcements out of Washington.  The Democrats got two excellent pieces of news coupled with a devastating one.  Below we'll take a look at the three House retirements coming just before Christmas and the state of the races there:

Jim Matheson (UT-4): Let's get the bad news out of the way first.  There's no way on earth the Democrats hold the seat that Jim Matheson has somehow managed to keep for a decade.  The seat has a PVI that favors the Republicans by 16-points, and Barack Obama lost it decidedly twice.  One of the great (possibly the greatest) mysteries of the 2012 elections is how Jim Matheson managed to win in a presidential year, against a credible candidate (who had national exposure) while a Mormon Republican ran at the top of the ticket.  Mayor Mia Love, who barely lost to Matheson last year, will surely win this seat next year if she can make it through the primary.  The Democrats now need eighteen seats to win the majority (hopefully Alex Sink will bring it back down to seventeen in a couple of months).  Hopefully Matheson isn't done in politics in the state-it'd be nice to see him make a play for governor or the Senate in 2016, though it's doubtful considering his decision to retire without a game plan for a promotion.

Frank Wolf (VA-10): Once you swallow the coal, the Democrats had a decent day in the other two retirements.  While there is a list of candidates a mile long on the GOP side that have been waiting for Wolf to run (seriously-I can think of ten Republicans off the top of my head who could run here), this is a seat with an R+2 PVI and only went to Mitt Romney by one point in 2012 (and Obama won it in 2008 by three points).  Fairfax County Supervisor John Foust is a decent candidate and will particularly benefit if he keeps the Democratic primary clear.  This is not a slam dunk for the Democrats (Terry McAuliffe lost it by a point as well as Obama, though Ralph Northam won it in his Lieutenant Governor's race, so it is winnable), but it's exactly the sort of seat we need if we're going to make some plays in the House.

Tom Latham (IA-3): The final announcement of the day came from a congressman who represents one of the only districts with a neutral PVI, Rep. Tom Latham of Iowa (a Republican).  Latham was quite popular in the district, but with him out of the race, this is a pure Tossup (it's also perhaps the canary in the coal mine about John Boehner retiring at the end of the Congress-Latham is one of his closest allies in the House).  Democrats have a solid candidate in former State Sen. Staci Appel, but it's hard to imagine the laundry list of Democrats in the district (this is the only race where we have the better bench) will pass up the chance for a promotion, particularly in a district that President Obama won by 4 and 5 points in 2012 and 2008, respectively.  State Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, in particular, seems like a prime contender for the Democrats.

So there you have it-a lively day in Washington, for sure, and one where three veterans of the House packed up their bags.  While Matheson is a surefire loss, the Democrats will need to pick up both of the other two seats if they want a shot at winning back the House, a proposition that has the seats now to happen if the Democrats can reshape the national narrative on the ACA.  President Obama, you definitely owe that to congressional Democrats for Christmas-just saying...