Best Actress: Will There Be a Rooney Mara?

At some point, like my quarrel with Hilary Swank years ago, I'm going to have to put aside my differences with Rooney Mara.  Yes, I wasn't a fan of her work in The Girl with a Dragon Tattoo, and yes Sasha Stone's relentless, constant praise of her that year was probably part of it (I have since given up Awards Daily as a blog to visit, which has helped my disposition tremendously).  But she's a lovely woman and her work in The Social Network was aces, so perhaps there is hope for me.  I'll be seeing another of her films in the not-so-distant-future (Ain't Them Bodies Saints) and will hopefully have something new and pleasant to write about her.

However, this article isn't about me coming to terms with a one-sided feud.  Instead, it's about this year's Best Actress race and the odd way that it was similar to 2011.  Best Actress, more than any other category, tends to favor precursor nominees.  Once a list of five women becomes indented into the Academy's minds, they very rarely will stray from that list.  Think of 2002 or 2006 or 2009-years like 2012 where the nominees are all-over-the-map are rare things indeed.

This year on-the-surface seems like one of those years.  It's hard to argue that Judi Dench, Emma Thompson, Meryl Streep, Sandra Bullock, and Cate Blanchett are all five in a great position to scoop up the five different acting slots.  They're all well-respected in the field, they're all indisputably talented, and they've all been supported by Oscar in the past.  However, a field with five former winners isn't something that comes along every day-the only time it's ever happened, oddly enough, was last year.  Additionally, a year with all of the actresses over forty is a blue moon on top of a blue moon-I don't know if this has ever happened in either of the female acting categories, which tend to favor the ingenue over the seasoned thespian.

This brings me to the Rooney Mara question.  In 2011, five former nominees were considered the frontrunner for the Oscars: Meryl Streep, Viola Davis, Glenn Close, Michelle Williams, and Tilda Swinton.  All five had dominated the precursors, were former Oscar nominees (he likes to repeat, our golden man), and were charming the awards circuit.  Oscar, though, couldn't be denied a first-timer and Tilda was replaced by Rooney Mara.

To be fair, Mara had done all-right with the precursors (scoring a Globe nod due to Williams moving to Comedy/Musical) and Williams was also under forty at the time, but the question remains the same-is there an actress we're underestimating right now who could make this lineup and pull a Rooney?  I've ranked my guesses at the Top 5 who could give it a shot:

5. Brie Larson (Short-Term 12)

Reason It Could Be Her: Larson gives an impassioned performance in Short-Term 12 as Grace, and has had critics across the country ecstatic about her future possibilities.  She recently picked up the Gotham Best Actress award and is nominated for Best Actress at the Spirit Awards-she's definitely got support.  Plus, there are some shades of when Jennifer Lawrence was nominated a few years back for Winter's Bone, and she's the perfect age (24) for when Oscar usually starts taking notice.
Reason It Won't Be Her: The film is SO small, and there is very little focus on it outside of the Indy Awards, which we all expected.  With the Globes being so star-focused (and this is a year heavy with stars), will she get lost in the shuffle?  And for every Jennifer Lawrence, there's an Elizabeth Olson in Martha Marcy Mae Marlene giving an exceptional performance that gets lost in the Oscar crowd.

4. Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Enough Said)
Reason It Could Be Her: Unlike the Best Actor category, women in romantic comedies regularly nab nominations in Best Actress, and Louis-Dreyfus is the most likely contender this year in a romantic comedy.  Her film has gotten raves, and provided that genre fraud doesn't take too much hold at the Golden Globes, it seems very likely she's going to be cited there.  If Gandolfini gets a bigger position in the Supporting Actor lineup, he could have coattails.
Reason It Won't Be Her: This sort of brings into the question of the Rooney Mara-am I looking for a first-time nominee or someone under forty, because at 52, Louis-Dreyfus can hardly be considered an ingenue even if she's much better known for television.  She couldn't score a Spirit nomination despite the film making it elsewhere (an ominous sign for her chances at more competitive awards shows).  Could this be all sizzle but no heat with the rest of the awards season?

3. Julie Delpy (Before Midnight)
Reason It Could Be Her: Delpy has continued to receive universal raves for her brilliant portrayal of Celine in what most assume is the final chapter in Richard Linklater's Before series.  She picked up a Spirit nomination, and many (most?) people think that with the genre fraud she's about to be entered into the Best Actress race at the Globes.  She's been pretty heavily promoting the DVD release, which means either she or the studio knows that this could happen.
Reason It Won't Be Her: Delpy technically doesn't check either of our boxes (in fact, only Larson and our next contender check both-this is slowly proving that Best Actress will have five former nominees next year if not former winners)-she's nominated for the screenplay, and something tells me that that might be her consolation prize again this year.  Celine is not an easily likable character in these films, and in particular during this movie.

2. Adele Exarchopoulos (Blue is the Warmest Color)
Reason It Could Be Her: Oscar isn't as intimidated when women are sexualized on film (heaven forbid a beautiful man ever prove he's a sexual being though), and she's terrific in this movie.  Anyone who actually sees the movie will be able to understand all the fuss around this performance, and she's helped by being in every scene.  She's already picked up numerous awards.
Reason It Won't Be Her: At this point she's in seventh place, and my hunch is that she won't be eligible at the Globes for an acting nomination (they get odd about foreign language films, though Marion Cotillard proved last year that they can make exceptions).  That means she's got to score a surprise win with either LAFCA today (her best bet) or steal away the sixth nomination from the Critics Choice Awards (I have to assume that in a six-wide field Amy Adams takes this).  This nomination isn't far-fetched, though, if anyone starts to fall.

1. Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Reason It Could Be Her: Because it's almost always Amy Adams.  With one exception, every time that Adams has received the slightest of awards heat for cinema she has made it to the Oscar race, and this film is positioning her in a major way-it just picked up Best Picture at the NYFCC Awards, virtually guaranteeing it a place in the top race with Oscar.  That sort of exposure, coupled with likely nominations from both the BFCA and the HFPA, means she's a strong shot at sixth and maybe fifth place.  Plus, after four nominations without a win, there's an argument to made that Adams, who is still under forty for a few more months, is overdue.
Reason It Won't Be Her: Adams has never made it to the Best Actress race (her only obvious miss with Oscar was her Golden Globe-nominated work in Enchanted), and there's the fear that she's upstaged, actress-wise, by her younger Oscar-favored costar Jennifer Lawrence.  The real question in this race is why Adams hasn't been able to upstage Dench or Streep, neither of whom has a film that is as destined for other nominations as Adams.  She's the only nominee on this list who wouldn't really be considered an "upset" if she took out one of the Big 5, but she's still in sixth place.

Those are my thoughts-what are yours?  Who is the biggest potential spoiler in the Best Actress category, and whom would she take out?  And what are your thoughts on Rooney Mara?