Political Flip-Flopping: How Much Should It Matter?

Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-HI)

As part of my research for my Mike Michaud article earlier this week, I of course read the open letter that he wrote to the Bangor Daily News, and one bizarre thing stuck out to me-Mike Michaud was talking about how the other side was distorting his record on women’s reproductive rights.  I further researched, and learned that Michaud had come out as pro-choice a few years back, despite being relatively social conservative on the issue when he first joined Congress.  Several prominent columnists had written that he had “come late to the party” and that he couldn’t be trusted on this important social issue.  Which got me questioning-how much does one’s past on issues truly affect one’s present political circumstances?

It’s a question worth asking, for multiple reasons, not least of which is because this upcoming year there are a few races where Democrats that have made a migration leftward on a host of issues have to contend with calls from the left that they aren’t “true believers.”  In addition to Michaud, you have someone like Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, who is running a very strong primary against Sen. Brian Schatz in Hawaii.  Hanabusa and Schatz are relatively similar on most issues, but one big one that Schatz has been a longtime supporter of and that Hanabusa has been a very (I want to say toward the end of December was when she reversed her stance) recent convert is on gay marriage.  Hanabusa said in an interview with Project Vote Smart in September of 2012, “I have always believed that marriage should be between a man and a woman.”  That’s just over a year ago, and despite her sharp reversal (she’s made a point of driving the passage of gay marriage in Hawaii this past week), those quotes still haunt her as Schatz tries to find some ground to gain votes in a tight Democratic primary.

Next year also has one of the largest shifts in recent memory, that of Charlie Crist in Florida.  It was less than four years ago that he was the Republican governor of the Sunshine State, and now he is the frontrunner to be the Democratic nominee for the same office in 2014.  Crist was not a Lincoln Chafee-style Republican, either.  He was pro-life, anti-gay marriage, Chamber of Commerce-style Republican as governor, and it’s difficult to see him having ever switched parties were it not for the royally idiotic move he made in 2010 to run for the Senate instead of reelection (still one of the stupidest moves I’ve seen in recent political memory).

Michaud, Hanabusa, and Crist all three have, at best, shaky progressive credentials when it comes to these issues, but the question is-does this matter, and will it affect their races, particularly their primaries?

In a way, it doesn’t matter, of course.  It’s almost impossible to see Hanabusa shifting to a more conservative stance on gay marriage again in her congressional career, and Michaud is the same with abortion rights.  Though Crist probably has a few positions that will stay conservative (likely some economic issues), he’ll be a solid supporter in most key issues, I would imagine, as a Democrat.

But on the flipside, it does matter.  One of the things that has truly stuck out about Republican primaries with the rise of the Tea Party movement is a shift away from traditional incumbent-and-party-leader candidates in favor of ideological purity.  This has been as a whole a downward spiral for the party, but it has also shined a light on something that we don’t usually think about in politics: primaries should be treated in the same way as general elections.  People frequently complain about term limits and about how “nothing ever changes,” but one of the missed opportunities is in a primary.  Using primaries as a way to get rid of members of your own party that you don’t like can be a risky business (just ask Indiana Republicans), but when it’s a race that you’re certain to win, it’s something to take into consideration.

This isn’t the case with Michaud, who is clearly a candidate that can navigate the waters of the Maine gubernatorial election.  Maine has a significant third-party presence, and Michaud is the rare Democrat who can snap up moderates and independents, while still sporting the party label that should carry over devoted Democrats (Michaud’s third party challenger is from the left, and likely cost us the governor’s mansion four years ago, as Gov. Paul LePage is too conservative to win in such a blue state).

However, this is something of the case with Charlie Crist and certainly the case with Colleen Hanabusa.  Crist, had he been challenge by Alex Sink in the primary, would have been considered the underdog-both had enough name recognition and connections to take on Gov. Rick Scott, a somewhat unpopular incumbent with unlimited financial resources.  With Sink out, there isn’t a candidate aside from Crist who can compete on a financial level, but considering Florida’s status as a blue state, if one emerges, it might be worth exploring tossing Crist to the curb, as his lack of party loyalty could be the most significant difference he has over his opponent.

Colleen Hanabusa, though, represents perhaps the best point of using a primary pragmatically to reflect your personal beliefs.  Both Hanabusa and Schatz are loyal Democrats, would make strong senators, and have the credentials to easily win the general (neither of them is a Sharron Angle who would put the seat in jeopardy, nor are they a Ted Cruz that would embarrass the party label while in office).  Therefore, it comes down to issues like Hanabusa’s unenthusiastic backing of gay marriage that should drive the narrative in the primary (like all elections, personalities, geographical allegiance, and demographics inevitably play into this conversation).  It’s reasons like that why I hope that Schatz wins the race, even though I’d have no trouble voting for Hanabusa.

So now I’ll turn it over to you-do you think that the recent ideological shifts of Michaud, Hanabusa, and Crist should make the difference in the primaries?  Should the Democrats go for a more liberal alternative in Maine and Florida, even if it risks us having a weaker general election candidate (the answer is no, but I’d love an argument for yes)?  And are you supporting Schatz or Hanabusa in Hawaii?  Share in the comments!