November Oscar Predictions: Picture, Director, and the Actors

So, to get us back into the swing of blogging (well, me at least), I figured I’d tackle a project that I’ve been putting off for a while: the pre-precursor Oscar predictions.  Some may quibble that the Gotham Awards have already kicked off the year, but how much do the Gotham Awards predict anything for anyone?  Really, it’s the Triple Crown of Critics Awards, the Golden Globes, and the (ugh) BFCA Awards that kick off awards season, and so I figured I’d take a hand at predicting before we can all basically guess who is going to be nominated.  With the increase in the number of precursors, there are less-and-less surprises on Oscar nomination morning, and we’ll soon learn who the Melissa McCarthy’s (the people who are obvious on nomination morning but no one would have guessed months out) and the Leo DiCaprio’s in J. Edgar (people who can land all the precursors but still miss) are.  In the meantime, let’s take a true stab in the dark at the guesses, so that I can look both omnipotent and utterly foolish with this time capsule post.  We’ll do a few posts throughout the week, starting with the Big 6 (Picture, Director, and the Actors).

Picture

The interesting thing about predicting Best Picture is the way that we don’t know how many films will be nominated.  Some people (almost all people) cheat and just guess ten and then claim they got everything right.  I’ll be speculating on the number of nominees as well, because that requires a bit more skill

12 Years a Slave and Gravity are the only two films that seem assured a nomination at this point, and both have moved on to the winner’s competition (I feel pretty strongly that 12 Years is headed to a Hurt Locker-level landslide year).  Both films, though, have everything in their corner when it comes to playing Oscar’s game-quality, strong performances, and box office.

The rest of the race, though, is filled with films that look like Best Picture nominees but don’t quite have the grand slam-level scorecard that 12 Years and Gravity do.  Still, American Hustle with its director-of-the-moment (David O. Russell is beyond hot with AMPAS right now), Captain Phillips with its Oscar-beloved star and strong box office, and August Osage County with its thousands of stars all would be foolish to bet against, despite each having its detractors and potentially being “too tired,” “too 90’s,” and “too staged,” respectively.

The rest of the field is a question mark, and I’m feeling like we won’t quite hit nine this year-I’m guessing eight (I have a hunch that seven is the floor with these sorts of things, and so I’ll add one more because I figured we’d miss one last year).  Therefore, I’m going to go with Inside Llewyn Davis (the Coen Brothers tend to dominate this category with the new rule), Blue Jasmine (Woody has a solid film here, and they may want to over-reward Blanchett), and let’s say The Wolf of Wall Street, which has a major director and a late release date, both of which occasionally add up to a nomination regardless of critical reaction.  The Dallas Buyers Club, Saving Mr. Banks, and particularly Nebraska all seem like they could be in the game, but I don’t quite feel like they’ve established themselves enough to make it to the top race.

Predicted Nominees: 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, August Osage County, Blue Jasmine, Captain Phillips, Gravity, Inside Llewyn Davis, and The Wolf of Wall Street

Probably in Ninth: Nebraska (Payne has done well here before, even if this isn’t as starry as The Descendants)

Odd No One is Talking About: Fruitvale Station, which was so topical and well-received earlier in the year.  Could there be stealth fans?

If I Had to Predict a Winner: 12 Years a Slave

Director

I have trouble believing that, considering their current status as the helmers of the Best Picture frontrunners, Alfonso Cuaron and Steve McQueen will miss here (Ben Affleck was a very unusual situation that won’t be duplicated a year later).  In fact, I wonder if the director’s branch won’t be a bit gun shy with handing out their nominations, and so they may also go with David O. Russell and Paul Greengrass, the only two guys who have Best Picture nominees that could potentially sneak in and win the show.  The fact that both are former nominees helps.

The last slot, though, will not go to John Wells (that film screams “actor picture,” and that’s usually a death knell for this category).  Martin Scorsese, Woody Allen or the Coen Brothers would be perfectly respectable nominees-they’ve been there before, honored them before, and they have films that are in the Best Picture hunt.  However, I can’t help but feel that the fanboys of one are similar to the fanboys of the others, and that could split the vote unless one (probably the Coen Brothers) breaks out.  Spike Jonze has surprised here before when his film wasn’t in the Best Picture lineup, but the film seems a little too odd for Oscar (though so was Being John Malkovich, so what do I know?).  Ryan Coogler is too young-and-hot, John Lee Hancock too Ron Howard-redux, and Stephen Frears too small.  Therefore, I’m going to go with Nebraska’s Alexander Payne, which almost makes me want to go back and predict Nebraska as a Best Picture nominee, but I’ll resist for now, as eventually the Director’s branch is going to miss a Best Picture nominee again.

Predicted Nominees: Cuaron, Greengrass, McQueen, Payne, Russell

Probably in Sixth: The Coen Brothers (they’re always close by)

Odd No One is Talking About: Ron Howard, who had a relatively well-liked film out earlier this year in Rush and is clearly favored by AMPAS

If I Had to Predict a Winner: Steve McQueen

Actor

Now we get to one of the categories that feels “complete.”  Despite the year being far-from-over, the dust appears to be settling around five men in particular: Robert Redford (All in Lost), Bruce Dern (Nebraska), Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips), Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave), and Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club).  They provide plenty of biopics, Best Picture frontrunners, former winners, legendary nominees, and not a man under 35-just how Oscar likes it.

There are of course other men in this race.  Chiristian Bale is in the hunt for American Hustle (and Out of the Furnace, which could either split votes or help bolster him), Forrest Whitaker has Oprah backing him, Michael B. Jordan has my heart (and probably someone else’s), and Leo DiCaprio has his Oscar backers, but none of them (save perhaps Bale, who is the biggest unknown of the race considering we don’t know reaction to his picture) have the drive and critical hosannas yet to take down one of the big five.  It’s worth noting that there will be at least one more Drama actor mentioned at the Globes with Dern likely to go comedic-if it’s Bale or Joaquin Phoenix (three nominations in, he’s also well-liked), this could get more interesting.

Predicted Nominees: Dern, Ejiofor, Hanks, McConaughey, Redford

Probably in Sixth: Bale

Odd No One is Talking About: Hugh Jackman, who got strong reviews (though not from me) the year after his first nomination, and one could expect a halo effect which sometimes happens to Oscar nominees.

If I Had to Predict a Winner: Ejiofor.  McConaughey probably needs to get past his first nod before he can claim this (though he’s my silver and could move to gold if he aces an early acceptance speech).  Otherwise, Ejiofor’s brutal physicality in 12 Years probably cemented his win here.

Actress

Like Best Actor, the internet has slowly coalesced around five actresses to be their frontrunners.  Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine), Sandra Bullock (Gravity), Judi Dench (Philomena), Meryl Streep (August Osage County), and Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks) all have the history with the Oscars (all five have won, in fact), the prestige, and the momentum in this race.  They are also helped by having, with one big exception, their competition being foreign actors (Adele Exarchopoulos, Julie Delpy, Berenice Bejo), Indy Queens (Brie Larson, Greta Gerwig), and a television star (Julia Louis-Dreyfus).  Even Kate Winslet, another fellow Oscar winner, can’t seem to crack this lineup.

However, Amy Adams appears to be going for lead actress for American Hustle, and a four-time Oscar nominee in a likely Best Picture nominee is nothing to scoff at, especially considering she lost on all four of those nominations and one could make a pretty solid case that she’s “due.”  I think that the most vulnerable nominees would be Thompson and Dench, with the latter looking increasingly likely to miss, but we’re going to have to wait a while as all six of these women are sure to be competing for the Globes and possibly the BFCA’s (they go with six nominees right-I don’t like this awards show so I never pay attention).

Predicted Nominees: Adams, Blanchett, Bullock, Streep, Thompson

Certainly in Sixth Place: Dench

Odd No One is Talking About: Felicity Jones, who has gotten some praise for The Invisible Woman, and is right in Oscar’s PYT wheelhouse for this category.

If I Had to Predict a Winner: This is clearly Blanchett, though does anyone find the stampede here odd?  This is an unlikable character, in a summer film that’s pretty light drama, and she’s already won.  This is no knock on Blanchett (she's terrific), but this doesn't feel like Oscar's raison d'etre.  I know she’ll sweep the critical prizes, but doesn’t it feel like Bullock or Adams could play the spoiler here?

Supporting Actor

Unlike the lead races, the supporting races seem all over the map.  The only guy that’s certain to make it here (and is probably already being crowned the winner) is Michael Fassbender for his nasty, horrifying slave-owner in 12 Years.  Jared Leto looks like he’s stuck the landing for Dallas Buyers Club, and considering the role appears to be a co-lead from the commercials, I think he’ll make it as well.

The hook of a first-time actor with Barkhad Abdi keeps him in the race, but I’m just not sold yet-if the film does well across the board, he’ll make it, but I wasn’t into this performance and I suspect I wasn’t the only one.  Despite the film having largely disappeared, Daniel Bruhl continues to be on everyone’s predicted list for Rush, but that film is fading and it’s not like he’s Tom Hanks and can continue the momentum.

Speaking of Hanks, he and Matthew McConaughey both have film roles that could get them doubly nominated, and Hanks in particular seems to be gunning for a major comeback this year (he likely saw Meryl and DDL win their third trophies and thought he better do it too).  Other names float in the race (Bradley Cooper, Jeremy Renner, Jonah Hill, John Goodman), but until we get a better crowd reaction to their movies, I don’t know if I’ll predict them.  Actually, I’ll go with one just for the heck of it.

Predicted Nominees: Bruhl, Fassbender, Hanks, Hill, Leto

Probably in Sixth Place: Barkhad Abdi

Odd No One is Talking About: I’ve never read the play, but the Academy liked Chris Cooper once upon a time and he factors relatively significantly in the commercials for August Osage

If I Had to Predict a Winner: Oscar loves a villain in this category, and Fassy is oh-so-charming.  This seems like a sure thing.

Supporting Actress

Both Oprah Winfrey and Lupita Nyong’O have so much critical acclaim, and that extra something (unrivaled star power for the former and a Best Picture frontrunner for the latter) that gets you an Oscar nomination.  They’re both certain in a field where no one else is.

This category tends to favor two actors from the same film more than any other, and Sarah Paulson’s nasty, vicious turn in 12 Years is both scene-stealing and damn fine acting.  Unless this race for some reason forgets her (there’s one performance every year that somehow gets left in the cold despite making complete sense on paper), I think she’s our third nominee.

Considering Winfrey and Nyong’O are battling it out for the win, the final two slots are just honored to be nominated, and five women appear to be fighting for them: Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale), June Squibb (Nebraska), Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine), Julia Roberts (August Osage), and Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle).  My gut is telling me that Lawrence’s win last year will be deemed “enough” for such a young performer.  Hawkins has been overshadowed by Blanchett, though Woody is like a magnet in this category.  Julia Roberts is so clearly the lead in her film that I think she’ll accidentally make lead for the Globes which will destroy her chances here.  Therefore, I’m going with Squibb and Spencer to fill out the final two slots, though any of the other three women could pounce if their campaign works well.

Predicted Nominees: Nyong’O, Paulson, Spencer, Squibb, Winfrey

Probably in Sixth Place: Julia Roberts, an Oscar-winning star who is trying for a major comeback, something AMPAS won’t ignore lightly

Odd No One is Talking About: Margot Robie and Cristin Milioti, as Marty is nearly as good as Woody at getting women nominated in this category.

If I Had to Predict a Winner: With me going with 12 Years in both men’s categories, I’m going to give this to Winfrey, though Nyong’O is a very real threat.

Those are my first pass at the Picture, Directing, and acting nominees.  I'll work on most of the rest later this week, but in the meantime-what are your thoughts?  Who are your predictions?  And what do you think is about to be a surprise nomination-sweeper?  Share in the comments!