November Oscar Predictions: Music & Sound

While our Oscar discussions for 2013 are just beginning (at this blog, Oscar never really goes away), we’ll finish up the November predictions right now with the sound and music categories.  Let’s jump in!

Original Score

Like Costume, there are certain names you check in this category and assume they are going to be nominated.  Perhaps more than any other potential nominee in any category, John Williams is that person to look for-as we’ve discussed before, Williams isn’t nominated every year, but so darn close that you’d be a fool not to predict him.  Williams is straying from Spielberg/Lucas for the first time in eight years to do The Book Thief, but that should hardly matter as he regularly gets in for films not directed by his favorites.  Count this as the first nomination.

Williams is the free space in bingo, but this category more than almost any other loves to re-nominate contenders.  Once you’ve made it to two nods, you’re more than likely going to hit 5-6.  Each year, there’s only one first-timer (who usually wins-it’s best to make it on your first shot).  My first-timer is going to be Steven Price for Gravity.  The score is a big part of that movie (some would quibble too big) and while others are going to try and fill this up with multiple first-timers, that’s not how this branch usually rolls.  Price will be my only one.

12 Years a Slave has shown up in most of my write-ups, and considering it is written by Oscar winner (and 9-time nominee) Hans Zimmer, it’s difficult to see that missing here.  Though I didn’t quite bring myself to put it into the Best Picture race (it’s at about tenth in my rankings), Saving Mr. Banks has Thomas Newman, who has lost eleven times in this category, so that’s enough to make me include him.

The final slot could go a few different ways.  This category can throw in some random films (The Village, anyone?), so some of the other big names that are competing are: Rachel Portman (Diana), Michael Giacchino (Star Trek Into Darkness), James Newton Howard (The Hunger Games: Catching Fire), Danny Elfman (Oz: the Great and Powerful), Alexandre Desplat (Philomena), and Zimmer again (Rush, Man of Steel, The Lone Ranger…and yes, this category does allow multiple-time nominees).  In addition, Henry Jackman (Captain Phillips), Mark Orton (Nebraska), and Christophe Beck (Frozen) all are shooting for their first nomination, and each has the sort of career that they could eventually breakthrough.

My guess, though, is that Oscar will want to acknowledge another of their favorites, even though this is very much a retread of his previous Pixar work: Randy Newman’s Monsters University.  This will be especially true if there’s any indication that this is getting an Oscar win somewhere else-they’ll want a second nomination for cover.

Predicted Nominees: 12 Years a Slave, The Book Thief, Gravity, Monsters University, Saving Mr. Banks

Probably in Sixth: Philomena (Elfman’s film may gain more nominations, but they haven’t gone for him in a few years and Desplat has become a fixture).

Oddly No One is Talking About: A Zimmer double nomination-they happen often enough in this category, and Rush has the pedigree to compete here.

If I Had to Predict a Winner: Price, probably-they love the first-timers once they actually get nominated.

Original Song

Even more than Best Makeup, Best Original Song is impossible to gage.  It’s hard to know, considering the massive number of eligibility issues, what will actually make the cut and which films will actually submit their songs.  Then there are the precursors, particularly the Globes, which are in fact not precursors at all-the Globes favor the bigger pop stars and Oscar likes his traditional composers here (notice how Adele was the first Bond songstress to actually win the award).  So it’s worth mentioning that I might get all of these wrong, but I'll at least name some films if nothing else.

The only films that really feel like they are certain to be included are Frozen and The Great Gatsby, and so in a dense thicket of possibilities, chalk them both up as my first nominees.  Frozen could quite easily gain two (with Idina Menzel, Jon Groff, and Kristen Bell all musically inclined), but since I'm not going to actually select a song title on all of these (I haven't heard the music yet), I'll just say love ballad from Frozen and call it a day.  On the other end of the spectrum, Lana del Rey (...I tell you all the time...) lends her vocal prowess to The Great Gatsby with "Young and Beautiful," and considering she'll look sensational on the red carpet (not to mention that film seems like it'll score a few other places), this is probably going to happen.

This is not a category that minds going there with a sequel even if it didn't go for the original, so both Catching Fire (with a new song by Coldplay) and The Hobbit (with a new song by Ed Sheeran) could be amongst the nominees.  The question for Coldplay, which on paper has the better shot, is whether they consider the film series to adjacent to the Twilight films, which resulted in a lot of hit music but no Oscar nominations.

Oscar loves a diva belting it out on his big night, so I am going to include Gladys Knight's "You and I Ain't Nothin' No More" from The Butler (I want to say Lenny Kravitz wrote this song), as it's both a big number and because this category likes to honor films that are also nominated elsewhere when it can.  Also, after last year, I have this funny feeling that Oscar is going to be a little bit more modern, giving nominations to films that also tore up the charts a bit (this may be a silly hunch).  With apologies to those of you who have Harry Styles tattoos, this doesn’t mean that One Direction will be performing at the Oscars, but I kind of think that Taylor Swift might be a solid compromise with One Chance.  She writes her own music, is one of the biggest acts on the planet, and clearly is gunning for an Oscar.  The question is can she beat Beyonce to getting a first nomination?

The final slot will probably go to one of the rockers: Eddie Vedder (Out of the Furnace), Alex Ebert (All is Lost), and Arcade Fire (Her) are all getting some mad props, but does anyone think this is where Oscar randomly discovers his love of biopics again (he does in the oddest places) and goes with U2 for Mandela: A Long Walk to Freedom?  That’s my guess, anyway.

Predicted Nominees: The Butler, Frozen, The Great Gatsby, Mandela: A Long Walk to Freedom, One Chance

Probably in Sixth: Out of the Furnace

Oddly No One is Talking About: This list is a mile long-inevitably no one has thought of one of the nominees yet.

If I Had to Predict a Winner: Probably Frozen-they haven't gone for a Disney musical for a while (or a musical in general for a while), so this is the perfect time to make the plunge.

Sound Mixing

For the curious, Kevin O’Connell does have films out this year, but it is wildly doubtful that The Hangover Part III, 47 Ronin, or Last Vegas will get him a shot at his trophy.  Therefore, we have few hints on the “check the actual names behind the film” rule for this category.

Louder and more confident Best Picture nominees frequently factor into this race, so Captain Phillips and Gravity are both sure things.  I also think we’ve got 12 Years a Slave here, though the sound editing category won't happen.

For the final two nominees, this category frequently goes with musical films, of almost any ilk, so Inside Llewyn Davis, with its Best Picture status, seems like a strong enough contender to scoop up a fourth nomination, though this could be vulnerable if they decide it’s time to go with bigger and more action-oriented pictures.  Those pictures could include All is Lost (all that water), Man of Steel, Iron Man 3, and perhaps even World War Z.  In Contention lists Lone Survivor unusually high here, though I cannot tell if that’s an inside joke Kris Tapley is playing or not.

My final film is going to be the car chases of Rush.  The film is positioned for a number of tech categories (even if it’s oddly not in the Best Picture race), and at some point it’s going to get in.  I’m guessing this will be one of the spots.

Predicted Nominees: 12 Years a Slave (I just realized that I’ve predicted this for fourteen nominations, which would tie the record-this, Makeup, or Paulsen are the most vulnerable to losing out on that title), Captain Phillips, Gravity, Inside Llewyn Davis, Rush

Probably in Sixth: All is Lost

Oddly No One is Talking About: Ender’s Game has to make a shortlist somewhere-it’s probably stronger in Sound than anywhere else.

If I Had to Predict a Winner: Gravity is getting the SM/SEE/VFX trifecta this year.

Sound Editing

You take out the musical and the “prestige” pictures in this category and replace them with action films (no matter the quality), films with explosions, and films with submarines (oh lord how Oscar loves his submarines here).

Therefore, 12 Years and Inside Llewyn can take a hike while we keep Rush, Gravity, and Captain Phillips in the mix (Captain Phillips basically has a submarine, so consider it a surprise winner).  I think here’s the place where All is Lost, which I just barely cut in the past write-up, finds its footing and gets a second nomination.  There’s no submarines (probably-I haven’t seen it yet), but there is a lot of water.

I’ll believe more so the Lone Survivor push here, as this category has frequently gone with films no one's particularly talked about (remember when Unstoppable made it?).  I’m not there on actually predicting it, though, and I think I’m going to throw Iron Man 3 another bone here.  That final fight scene is a sound editing dream, and while Man of Steel, Pacific Rim, The Hobbit, and Oz: The Great and Powerful could all serve as spoilers, I think that Iron Man’s robots keep this in the competition.

Predicted Nominees: All is Lost, Captain Phillips, Gravity, Iron Man 3, Rush

Probably in Sixth: Could someone in the comments explain why Lone Survivor is apparently a real contender here?  I’m willing to put it in this position, but for now it’s Man of Steel.

Oddly No One is Talking About: Remember when Pixar got nominated here every year?  Brave bests Monsters U by leaps and bounds in this category and couldn’t make it, but who knows if Pixar will suddenly be in Oscar’s good graces again.

If I had to Predict a Winner: Gravity once more.

And there you have it-I short shifted the Shorts and Documentaries, and Original Song is a hot mess, so the comments section is begging for you to click-what do you think is going to be nominated this year at the Oscars?