A Gay Marriage Update

Considering that it's Wedding Week on the blog (if the banner above didn't give you a hint, the tag below surely was a clue), so I thought it would be appropriate to check in where we're at with gay marriage, as several states are getting a whole lot closer and we may have at least one, if not two more states with legalized gay marriage by the end of Wedding Week (a present that we all would register for).  Here's my Top 8 states that are on-track for gay marriage next (and the adorable couple to the left are Larry Choate and Daniel Lennox, the first gay couple to ever be married at West Point, for the curious):

8. Nevada

One of the things I have discovered following the state-by-state battles for these laws to pass (aside from the fact that there is a very brave couple in Mississippi of all places trying to legalize gay marriage-more power to you!) is that states have odd laws.  From what I understand of the Nevada state law, a bill has passed both the State Senate and the State Assembly.  The next step would be that, provided that the legislature remains pro-gay marriage (VOTE!) in 2015, the legislature would pass the bill again and then the initiative would be on the ballot in 2016 (along with Harry Reid, a supporter of gay marriage).  That's a pretty long road ahead, but unlike a lot of other states, at least Nevada has a game plan and a time table, so it stays in eighth above Michigan, Florida, Arizona, and Ohio.

7. Colorado

Like Illinois and Hawaii, Colorado doesn't have same-sex marriage but does have civil unions.  The civil unions, though, do not have the same protections under the law as marriage does, so a court case has been filed in order to try and get the constitutional ban on gay marriage tossed out.  However, there isn't really a legal basis for the constitutional ban to be rescinded under state law (the ban is pretty clear, and was voter-endorsed), so this almost assuredly will require a ballot initiative, and insiders state that it, like in Nevada, will happen in 2016.  Again, this is a pretty long wait for a trending blue state, but like Nevada, it has a ground game.

6. Pennsylvania

Though Tom Corbett may be the most unpopular governor running for reelection next year, I doubt pretty severely that we'll be able to get a legislative victory through Pennsylvania anytime soon even if he loses his reelection race (the Republicans have gerrymandered the state legislative map to the hilt, and could control the legislature for decades unless the state's Democrats plan a well-timed wave in 2020).  The Democrats are pursuing the matter through the courts, though, which has increasingly worked well for them in blue states, and they are emboldened by the Supreme Court decision.  It's worth noting that all four of the states highest-profile Democrats (Rep. Allyson Schwartz, Sen. Bob Casey, Jr., Attorney General Kathleen Kane, and Rep. Joe Sestak) have all become pretty vocal supporters of the measure, which can only help since three of them have high profile primaries coming up and want to gain with liberal voters.  Most states that have passed the measure did so with the help of vocal elected officials.

5. Oregon

Oregon voters are in a bit of a quandary it seems, and unlike most of the other states on this list, they look near certain to pass the bill next year, rather than having a court case or legislative battle this year or further out game plan.  The reason for this appears to be that because the state has a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, they have to get the bill on the ballot, though there are court cases as well, so perhaps the ballot initiative (which has the support of Gov. John Kitzhaber, whom I believe was the first to sign it) will be a safety precaution by then.  Either way, whether by court case or ballot initiative, Oregon will almost assuredly have legalized marriage by next December.

4. Virginia

The Old Dominion is largely going to be influenced as much by a court case currently arguing that the state cannot legally dismiss gay marriages performed in other states as much by Tuesday's elections.  Considering that the Republican ticket is vociferously against legalizing gay marriage (and Terry McAuliffe is a pretty vocal advocate in favor of legalization), the state has a chance to send a clear message of where they want a potential bill to land in the next session.  A win for McAuliffe and down-ballot Democrats would bolster Virginia's position in these rankings.

3. Illinois

Illinois is a solid blue state with a Democratic governor who is practically begging the legislature to get the bill to his desk (Pat Quinn is probably the most vulnerable incumbent Democratic governor up next year, and would love a win in a state that supports gay marriage).  The holdup is in the State House, where a group of socially conservative and influential African-American preachers in Chicago have asserted an enormous amount of pressure on the legislature not to consider the bill.  The public is clearly behind such a measure, though, so this will be an interesting debate.  It's worth noting that this is of course President Obama's home state, and as a president that has supported gay rights more than any other, he surely wants them to have passed this before he leaves office, if not before the midterms.

2. New Mexico
New Mexico is in a unique position not seen anywhere else in the country.  Unlike every other state, New Mexico has no statutes for or against gay marriage, and eight counties are currently issuing gay marriage licenses, though others are not.  The State Supreme Court, at the urging of the state's county clerks, has recently heard a court case and will issue a judgment soon.  Judicial experts have said this is still a tossup, but the tide is clearly turning here.  The gay marriage debate has opened up a clear divide for next year's governor's race, as well, as incumbent Susana Martinez is against gay marriage while her likely opponent, Attorney General Gary King, is in favor of the law.

1. Hawaii
The Aloha State is currently in the middle of a special legislative session just to address the state's gay marriage law.  The State Senate passed a bill overwhelmingly endorsing gay marriage in the state, the governor is 100% behind the bill, major congressional players such as Sen. Brian Schatz and Rep. Colleen Hanabusa have urged the state legislature to pass the bill, and even President Obama has publicly spoken in favor of his home state getting behind the law.  The only things that really seem to be left to do is get the bill through the State House, which is overwhelmingly Democratic.  Hawaii could become the 15th state to legalize gay marriage as soon as Wednesday.

It's worth noting that gay marriage continues to make waves in other states, and I don't necessarily think these are the next eight states to make the jump, just the most likely at this juncture.  Let's keep in mind that Iowa came before a lot of solid blue states due to a random court ruling, and that could happen again.  I have a sneaking suspicion that in the not-so-distant future we're going to see a southern court rule in favor of gay marriage (there are lawsuits filed in almost every state in the union at the moment), making it the first state south of the Mason Dixon line to pass the law, and setting up the "end game" toward all fifty states backing equality.  Democratic representatives keep coming out in favor of gay marriage as well, which certainly helps the cause (Attorney General Roy Cooper, a potential gubernatorial candidate in North Carolina in 2016, was a recent convert).  But the message here is that there's a long way to go, and if you're in one of the 35 states that doesn't back gay marriage, make sure and vote and write your elected representatives urging them to allow us all to have a wonderful wedding week.