Each year, I put together an election night preview for my own personal
perusal, and this year, I thought, “why not put it on the blog?” So let’s dive into my annual mildly
psychotic (congressional election years this write-up can hit something like
twenty single-space pages) election night forecast.
Off-year elections are a little bit difficult to digest, primarily
because there’s no national headwind, and even if there is, it isn’t likely to
affect a large number of races.
The “I didn’t know” attitude coming from the Obama administration
and the less-popular-than-cockroaches
opinion of Republicans coming off of the government shutdown sends a bit of a
missed message this year. Therefore,
I won’t be weighing too strongly in favor of one party, though my gut tells me
that if congressional elections were held today the Democrats would win seats,
for whatever it’s worth (and for those who think that I’ll favor Democrats
because I am one, you are sorely mistaken-I’m famously pessimistic about
Democrats in tossup races, and usually end up over-predicting Republican wins
if I’m wrong).
I will warn you before we dive in that I make predictions in every
race. I think it’s cheating and totally
wimpy to not predict a race just because it’s a coin toss. I have in the past literally tossed a
coin, but I always make a guess.
That’s about all of my usually addendums, so let’s take a look at some
of the highest-profile races (I will stick to the Top 40 most populous cities,
plus a couple from my home state for the mayoral write-ups). If there are races I missed (and there
will be), share them in the comments and I’ll weigh in!
Alabama
Alabama-1 Runoff: Though
there are currently four vacancies in the U.S. House, the only one that is
having a primary, runoff, or general on November 5th is in Alabama’s
first district, where State Sen. Bradley Byrne will face off against businessman Dean
Young in a GOP runoff after Byrne won the initial primary handily, but not by enough to hit 50%. Conventional wisdom states that Byrne,
with political experience and establishment support/money, should take this,
and my gut says he will, but those two words have been anathema to the GOP
lately, and I wouldn’t be stunned by a Young victory. Since this is the first establishment vs. Tea Party primary
since the shutdown and Sens. McConnell/Alexander have called out the movement,
expect the RNC to have their fingers crossed that Byrne will win. Whomever emerges victorious here will
cruise to winning the general, as this is a seat Mitt Romney won by 25-points.
 |
| Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed |
Georgia
Mayor of Atlanta: Mayor
Kasim Reed, a rising star in the Democratic Party recently received an
endorsement from President Obama in his quest for a second term. On Tuesday, he’ll receive the
endorsement of all of Atlanta as he will easily be re-elected.
Massachusetts
Mayor of Boston: With
legendary Boston Mayor Thomas Menino retiring after five terms, this has become
a tight race between City Councilor John Connolly and St. Rep. Marty Walsh,
both Democrats. Connolly is the
preferred candidate of moderates and Republicans, and has held a mid-to-high
single digit lead over Walsh for most of the past few weeks, so I’m guessing he
takes this race.
Michigan
Mayor of Detroit: I don’t think
there is a political office I could want less than being mayor of Detroit, so
bravo to the two men (both Democrats) who are running to try to clean-up this
mess. Businessman Mike Duggan has
really established himself in this race after an impressive write-in campaign
to make the runoff, and has wildly outspent his opponent Wayne County Sheriff
Benny Napoleon. Duggan would
become the first white mayor of Detroit in forty years, and while the polls
seem a little bit too one-sided in his favor, I feel confident that he’ll end
up winning here.
Minnesota
 |
| City Councilor Betsy Hodges |
Mayor of Minneapolis: So,
since it’s my home state, I’m going to cheat and include Minneapolis and St.
Paul even though they don’t meet the population cutoff. Minneapolis has what may be the most
wide-open election of Tuesday night, considering they are launching RCV for the
first time ever and over thirty candidates are on the ballot. My fingers are crossed for City
Councilor Betsy Hodges (for what it’s worth, if I lived in city limits I’d be
casting my ballot for her), though I honestly have no idea. Since I don’t believe in not
predicting, I’m going to guess Don Samuels takes it, but this could be any
number of 4-5 candidates (including Dan Cohen, who hasn’t held political office
in decades).
Mayor of St. Paul: Mayor
Chris Coleman (my other Minnesota endorsement) should coast easily to a third
term in office, but the real story here is the insane recent debate all of the
candidates participated in-you have to check out this clip.
New Jersey
Governor: New Jersey Gov.
Chris Christie has become the great hope of both local and national
Republicans. Despite doing roughly
what I would have recommended in such a situation (going after him on social
issues and his clear national ambitions), State Sen. Barbara Buono (D) has not
been able to make a dent in Christie’s margins, and though she may come the
closest ever to electing an all-female Democratic ticket, Christie will still
handily win reelection.
State Senate: With Christie
at the top of the ticket, it appears likely that the Republicans will be able
to gain seats in the state legislature.
The question is, can they win enough seats to take back either
chamber? The Democrats have the
majority in both, and most pundits assume that if one falls, it’ll be the
Senate, where the Republicans would need four seats to win the majority. One of the premiere races includes District 38, where State Sen. Bob Gordon is running in a race he won by
6-points in 2011 (Gov. Christie has cut ads for the Republican, proving he is better at down-ballot campaigning than our current Commander-in-Chief). My guess is that while Gordon goes
down, Christie won’t quite have the pull to take back either chamber (New
Jersey is an oddly coattail averse state, as people like Frank LoBiondo and
Diane Allen have proven for decades).
 |
| NYC Public Advocate Bill de Blasio |
New York
Mayor of New York City: Despite
what you may have heard, the mayoral election didn’t end when Bill de Blasio
bested political joke Anthony Weiner in the primary a few months ago, though it
might as well have. De Blasio has
become a massive frontrunner, and will almost certainly defeat Joe Lhota on
Tuesday. It’s worth noting that,
though this is a blowout, this is a major pickup for the Democrats, who have
not held Gracie Mansion in twenty years, and is part of a larger trend toward major
cities in the country not having Republicans in charge, or Republicans even
being competitive in elections in major cities (the largest city in the country
to have a Republican mayor will be Indianapolis after Tuesday).
North Carolina
Mayor of Charlotte: Charlotte’s
mayoral election has been a low-key affair, with Mayor Pro Tempore Patrick
Cannon looking likely to carry the day for the Democrats, giving them a young,
potential star mayor in the state’s largest city.
Texas
Mayor of Houston: Though
Mayor Annise Parker (running for her third and final term as mayor) barely
avoided a runoff four years ago, it doesn’t appear likely that she’ll have much
issue taking out Ben Hall in this campaign. The only real question is whether she does it on Tuesday or
whether the campaign continues for another few weeks if Parker can’t hit 50%,
and then she bests him in December.
 |
| DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe |
Virginia
Governor of Virginia: The
marquee race of 2013, this has definitely seen its turns in the past few
weeks. Though Attorney General Ken
Cuccinelli (R) hasn’t led in a poll in months, the momentum has shifted to his side
over former DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe.
The ground game with the base will be key here, and the Democrats in
particular are aware of how embarrassing it would be for McAuliffe to lose just
a few weeks after the Republican-led shutdown and McAuliffe holding a sizable lead here (Virginia, because of its
proximity to DC, is much more affected by a government shutdown than the rest
of the country). The Clintons,
President Obama, and Vice President Biden have or will be a presence on the
campaign trail in the last days of the election, and while I’m going to say
McAuliffe wins, I’m not at all confident in that prediction anymore (two weeks ago,
this would have been a blowout for him).
Keep your fingers crossed…
Lieutenant Governor of Virginia:
The governor and lieutenant governor are elected separately in the Old
Dominion, though the result should probably be the same in both races. Minister E.W. Jackson (R) looks likely
to lose due to his heinous views on gay people to State Sen. Ralph Northam (D). This race has particular importance due
to the Lieutenant Governor’s position as a tiebreaker in the State Senate
(which is currently evenly-divided between Republicans and Democrats). Like the Governor’s mansion and the
Attorney General’s office, if the Democrats were to win this, it would be a
pickup and Northam would be well-positioned to run for Governor of Virginia in
2017 (McAuliffe is limited to one-term).
Attorney General of Virginia: If
you want the one seat that is a true tossup headed into election night, it
would be here. Unlike the rest of
his Republican ticket, State Sen. Mark Obenshain hasn’t been bogged down by his
conservative views (though he has them, so I’m not sure what that’s about), and
has a mild edge over Democratic Rep. Mark Herring. The big question in this race is can McAuliffe gain any
coattails with his mild lead in the governor’s race. If McAuliffe loses or is only winning by 1-3 points,
Obenshain probably takes this. If,
however, the Democrat can win by 6-8 points at the top of the ballot, Herring
may gain big from people straight-ticket voting for the Democrats. This office has alluded the Democrats
for twenty years, and were Northam/Herring to both win, the Republicans would
be severely handicapped by having no statewide officials ready to run for
governor in 2017.
Virginia
General Assembly: Republicans have a massive advantage in Virginia in the
House of Delegates, and so there is no risk for the Republicans to lose here.
However, there are a few seats that could swing to the Democrats here denting
the Republican majority (and giving a theoretical Gov. McAuliffe a bit more
breathing room). State Reps. Mark
Dudenhefer (2nd district), Bob Marshall (13th district),
Scott Lingamfelter (31st district), Jackson Miller (50th
district), Richard Anderson (51st district), Tom Rust (86th
district), David Ramadan (87th district), Mike Watson (93rd
district), and David Yancey (94th district) all represent seats
where Barack Obama not only beat Mitt Romney, but cleared 50%. These are the seats to watch on
election night, particularly if McAuliffe is doing well.
Washington
Mayor of Seattle: In perhaps
the only race in the country where a major incumbent is set to lose, Mayor Mike
McGinn is certain to fall to State Sen. Ed Murray (both are
Democrats). McGinn has struggled
with his approval ratings his entire term in office (last year SurveyUSA gave
him a 50% disapproval rating, an impossible to bounce back from benchmark for
an incumbent), and his poor relations with labor and the tech industry add up
to him losing on Tuesday in potentially epic fashion.
That appears to be all she wrote from me-I’ll be checking back on
Wednesday morning to see how I did and what surprises erupted around the
country. In the meantime, what are
your predictions and who are you supporting on Tuesday? Share in the comments!
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