Assessing the Debt Ceiling Vote

Rep. Paul Ryan Broke with Leadership and Cast a No Vote on the
Debt Ceiling Bill

So, by 81-18 votes in the Senate (it's a tossup how Sen. Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma would have voted, though I suspect it would have been a no) and by 285-144 in the House, we have averted yet another debt crisis and reopened the government.  Overall, this is cause for celebration, though I think almost all of us believe we'll be back in this same situation in a few months.

That being said, I thought I'd do a little bit of analysis into some of the specific members of Congress and how they voted.  Considering that the bill was widely supported by the general public, and in particular, Obama voters, here's a little analysis of what I found interesting in the results.

No Democrat Voted Against the Bill
Some would claim that this would go without saying, but there are a few red-district Democrats (Sen. Pryor, Reps. McIntyre, Matheson, and Rahall) whom one could argue had a decision to make considering the Affordable Care Act's continued unpopularity in these districts.  The fact that the Democratic Whips in both houses of Congress (Dick Durbin and Steny Hoyer) kept everyone in-line shows that they're two of the less media-celebrated victors of this fight.

All Leading Republican Presidential Candidates Voted No
The line is in the sand with leading presidential candidates: Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Paul Ryan, the four men in Congress most likely to run for President in three years, all were with the conservatives on this vote.  It's questionable whether this was smart politics for Rubio in particular, but this vote could be key in three years during the primary season.  I have heard a lot about how Chris Christie, a Washington outsider, benefited from this shutdown, but if the Republicans in Congress are indicative of the GOP base in three years, it's hard to imagine Christie scoring the nomination with such "moderate" credentials.

Four Blue-State Republican Senators Voted No
We've discussed at length the fact that next year's Senate elections strongly favor the Republicans on paper, but last night's votes provided future candidates with a bit of fodder, though it's hard to imagine voters having long memories three or five years in the future.  The only blue state-Republican up in 2014 is Susan Collins, who not only voted for the bill but actively championed it, but four Obama-state Republicans in the Senate voted against the bill:  Chuck Grassley (IA), Ron Johnson (WI), Marco Rubio (FL), and Dean Heller (NV).  None of these are particularly surprising (but the fact that Heller won by the skin-of-his-teeth last year in a trending blue state sure makes me raise an eyebrow), but all four votes carry a significant risk in future elections.

Blue-District Republicans Who Voted No
The House, considering they are abysmally unpopular and are up for reelection next year, was quite a bit more pragmatic.  Only one Republican who was in an Obama-won district in 2012 voted for the bill: Rep. Jeff Denham of CA-10.  The Democrats have a second-tier candidate there who just caught a HUGE break and has been talking about it on Twitter (Michael Eggman, a Central Valley farmer from a political family), and Denham, whose district went for Obama twice, just made a bold move that could cost him his job.

While Denham is the only Republican representing a 2012-Obama district that voted against the bill, five men representing districts the President won in 2008 voted against the bill: Reps. Sean Duffy (WI-7), Tim Walberg (MI-7), Tom Reed (NY-23), Mike Turner (OH-10), and once again Paul Ryan (WI-10).  While Romney won all of their districts, none of them he won by very much in 2012, and this vote definitely puts their seats on the political radar.  Walberg and Reed both have decent challengers taking them on already, and considering the chance they just took, I suspect that Steve Israel will begin recruiting pretty heavily in Duffy's and Turner's districts (Paul Ryan is a teflon politician).

Vulnerable Republican Senate Candidates Split Their Decision
The leading Senate candidates for the Republicans in 2014's most competitive races took a mixed approach to yesterday's vote.  The only vulnerable sitting Republican senator, Mitch McConnell, voted yes for the bill (he was one of its architects), despite his primary opponent deriding him for it this morning.  Reps. Shelley Moore Capito (WV), Steve Daines (MT), and Tom Cotton (AR) all voted yes on the bill, opening them up for potential primary challenges from the right in their respective states, but making them much more attractive general election candidates (none of them currently have a strong Republican challenger on the horizon, which may have been a factor).  Rep. Mike Simpson of Idaho is facing a strong primary challenger, but voted for the bill anyway.

Meanwhile, the Georgia trio (Reps. Jack Kingston, Paul Broun, and Phil Gingrey), as well as Rep. Bill Cassidy (LA) and Sen. Mike Enzi (WY) all five voted against the bill.  This can only help Enzi, who is leading handily in a primary against Liz Cheney, daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney.  The other four, however, could gain in a primary with this vote, but even in Georgia and Louisiana it's difficult to see this not being utilized by Michelle Nunn and Mary Landrieu in campaign ads.

Those were the things that really stuck out in yesterday's vote-any anomalies or oddities I missed?  Share in the comments!