Emmy Predictions: The Miniseries

Note from John: We are extremely excited to announce our very first guest star on Many Ranting of John, Luke from Journalistic Skepticism!!!

Luke here, ready to talk up the miniseries/TV movie nominees for this Sunday’s Emmys. For this year’s crop, it’s a little bit of business as usual, with a healthy mix of traditional big-event miniseries, HBO original one-offs and this genre’s own form of category fraud – the series masquerading as a miniseries. But let’s take them for what they’re worth – and maybe get a few fresh angles on the chosen few. Namely, how would these telepics fare in Oscarville?

Best Miniseries/TV Movie

Let’s kick things off with the big one. In the best-off list we have Behind the Candelabra, HBO’s Liberace biopic and the odds-on favorite; Top of the Lake, the Sundance sensation with the cable-drama pedigree; American Horror Story: Asylum, Ryan Murphy’s season-two outing pretending to be just another step in the anthology; The Bible, the massive History Channel event series; Phil Spector, the “other HBO movie” that proved to be a quiet blip on the radar; and Political Animals, USA’s failed attempt at a non-procedural drama that was branded a “limited series” as a just-in-case-of-ratings-failure.

Who Will Win? With Liberace’s ivory-tickling all but a certainty for the big win, it seems as though the low-key pot-boiler Top of the Lake will have to be a bridesmaid all season long. There’s no question that the Globes and SAGs will, as tradition fairly often suggests, follow suit come year’s end. There’s an outside shot at the classically concocted The Bible might spoil here due its ratings behemoth status, but it’s incredibly unlikely.

What Would Oscar Say? In order to make this judgment call, I’ll have to first imagine that all the entries – namely Top of the Lake, Asylum and The Bible weren’t hours-long epics but two-hour-long theatrical outings. With that in mind, Behind the Candelabra is cinematic enough in its energy and pacing that if it weren’t so gay it might have an outside shot at some Oscar love. TotL would perhaps see some screenwriting adoration, but the subdued tone and female-centric plot would be trouble to overcome with stuffy Oscar voters. Yet, it’s a beauty to look at, and Jane Campion isn’t any slouch with awards bodies. Then there’s AHS, which while wildly entertaining, is not at all Oscar’s cup of tea and wouldn’t stand a shot. Phil Spector suffers from an over-the-top narrative, and Political Animals is far too “TV” to translate well into theaters. And with The Bible chockfull of bizarre and horrendous performances and strangely low production value, it seems Candelabra would be the only near shoo-in.

Best Lead Actress

Inspecting this year’s leading ladies, name recognition should be no trouble. With now-perennial favorite Jessica Lange headlining AHS this time around, and awards darlings Helen Mirren (Phil Spector) and Sigourney Weaver (Political Animals) showing up, this could be a heated race. Rounding out the competition is “can’t get no love” Elisabeth Moss (Top of the Lake) and Laura Linney finishing up her stint as Cathy Jamison in The Big C: Hereafter.

Who Will Win? With a few category fraudsters in play (Lange, Linney, arguably Weaver), it’s a tough call. Hereafter’s minimal additional nods tell me Linney’s down for the count, and Mirren’s film hasn’t made enough of a splash, especially considering the subject matter. And with Weaver’s PA deemed a cancelled failure (though I must say I thoroughly enjoyed it), Lange and Moss will duke it out, with Emmy’s penchant for regifting leading me to believe Lange has this one.

What Would Oscar Say? Imagining these as theatrical performances, Moss’s even-tempered turn as a believably New Zealander detective would at least be in the conversation come Indie Spirit time. Imagining the much-improved final season of The Big C as a film, there’s no doubt in my mind that Linney would be campaigned for Oscar – it was a beautiful ending to a once-great show. Lange’s saddled with a tough genre, so I doubt she’d have much luck sneaking her way in. The nature of Weaver’s role (Hillary Clinton-esque politico) would lend itself well to a film, so a Globe nod doesn’t seem out of the question. And though Mirren has slipped through for less, her turn in Phil Spector isn’t nearly enough of a stretch for Oscar love.

Best Lead Actor

Should any other network even try anymore? HBO sweeps the category with the Liberace boys, Michael Douglas and Matt Damon, landing themselves (thankfully) in the correct category for Behind the Candelabra, Al Pacino riding an array of ridiculous wigs into the category with Phil Spector, Toby Jones trying to outdo Anthony Hopkins in his take on Hitchcock in The Girl, and Benedict Cumberbatch (Parade’s End) landing his more than likely second of many more nominations to come.

Who Will Win? Will it really be a Douglas/Damon fight to the death on this one? The Behind the Candelabra stars will officially decide which one of the two of them will subsequently win the SAG and Globe later this year on Sunday night. And though Pacino is a big name here, his internal competition from fellow HBO stars could be too much to overcome. Cumberbatch is having a moment, to be sure, but he and Jones have the same problem – both in HBO films that barely got noticed on their release.

What Would Oscar Say? It’s kind of interesting to see how Emmy definites can change so much when switching out the voting Academy. Something tells me Jones’s mimcry and Cumberbatch’s costume drama-ing would read well with Oscar voters, and I could see both connecting. Pacino’s Spector is probably too subversive and outlandish for AMPAS tastes. And while Douglas would almost certainly land a spot in the Oscar lineup, Damon would definitely find himself in supporting. Because Oscar simply can’t help himself.

Best Supporting Actress

The category features a couple of relentless mainstays in Ellen Burstyn (Political Animals) and the darling of the Emmys Alfre Woodard (Steel Magnolias), as well as a British invasion in the form of Charlotte Rampling (Restless) and Imelda Staunton (The Girl). And it wouldn’t be a miniseries category without your AHS entry, this year’s model Sarah Paulson. Quick question though – how the heck did Emmy avoid Debbie Reynolds’ sneaky turn in Candelabra, the opportunity to recognize Phylicia Rashad (Steel Magnolias) and Holly Hunter’s wispy weirdo in Top of the Lake? All seemed like intensely likely players on paper but missed out.

Who Will Win? With seemingly no urgency to reward Woodard’s scene-stealing Ouiser or Burstyn’s colorful mama in PA, this feels like the Brits versus Paulson. Restless’s one-off nature looks unlikely, but Rampling’s had a memorable stint on the Emmy-popular Dexter this season. Staunton’s part is very small in The Girl but she has her Emmy scenes to be sure. This should theoretically be Paulson’s to lose – she was magnificent in Asylum, though it’s hardly fair, as she was the clear lead in the horror series’ second outing.

What Would Oscar Say? Disregard Horror once more here, but the other four are all entirely possible. Steel Magnolias perhaps wouldn’t play as well in theaters these days, and Burstyn was maybe too hammy for a surefire nod. Admittedly, I haven’t seen Restless so I can’t speak to its prospects, though the Academy has never shown much interest in Rampling. Staunton, though, seems like the likeliest of entries here, unless The Girl’s hypothetical theatrical run went by way of Hitchcock.

Best Supporting Actor

Closing out the big five categories for the miniseries genre, AHS put up two nominees this time around in James Cromwell and Zachary Quinto; Peter Mullan came out as the sole TotL man in the lineup; John Benjamin Hickey landed a surprise nod for the final season of The Big C; and Scott Bakula outdid Rob Lowe’s goofy plastic surgeon for Candelabra’s final nomination of the list.

Who Will Win? Though Candelabra will win the night and Damon’s not in play as many suspected, Bakula is a longshot. Mullan will be a part of the across-the-board loss I suspect Top of the Lake will suffer, and Hickey hasn’t had much luck throughout The Big C’s run, so I’m not sure it would start now. This looks to be a battle between Quinto and Cromwell, and, though the former’s star is rising, veteran Cromwell will win the day.

What Would Oscar Say? For some reason, Cromwell’s role in Asylum feels like the only one that could transcend genre bias to possibly get some awards love in theaters. If Mullan had a more recognizable name, his edgy character choices would move beyond just an Indie Spirit mention. It’s the Linney show this season on Big C, so Hickey wouldn’t see much golden guy. And Bakula could have an off-chance coattails moment if Candelabra were a big Oscar sweeper, though his bit part would be a tough sell.

So there you have it – how do you think the chips will fall come Sunday? How do you think these flicks would fare with AMPAS? And how strange is it that Emmy gave up the opportunity to nominate Hunter and Reynolds?