America's Next Top Nobel Laureate

The British oddsmakers have started to take bets on the biggest literary prize of the year.  Ladbrokes has named Haruki Murakami, the 64-year-old Japanese writer of Kafka on the Shore and Norwegian Wood as the frontrunner for the prize, and he seems to be in the mold of their recent wins-someone known to a small sect of international circles, and yet wildly celebrated in his native country as a literary pioneer.  The Nobel Prize in Literature is frequently one of the most discussed and overly dissected awards in the known universe, and even if they go with the frontrunner Murakami, you can bet that there will be a number of articles saying, “why can’t it be…”

And this isn’t quite going to be one of them, but it is going to be a brief question of which Americans have a shot at the prize, and how long will we wait until an American wins the prize again.  The United States is second only to France in the number of laureates, but we haven’t had a recipient win in twenty years, the last person being Toni Morrison in 1993.  This is the longest stretch since our first win in 1930 that we’ve gone without taking the prize, and so it has to be asked-will this year be the year?  I’m going to dissect below the six men and one woman I think have the best shot at upsetting this trend in 2013 (six of whom you could argue is the greatest living American novelist), though I will state that Murakami makes the most sense of the bunch.

7. E.L. Doctorow

Doctorow recently picked up a top honor from the National Book Awards-could a Nobel be far behind?  Doctorow's bibliography seems about right (they never want too many or too few), and he has several classic novels to draw back from (Ragtime, Billy Bathgate), but he hasn't been as active in the past decade, writing just a pair of novels, and he never seems to get the press push that someone like Roth or Pynchon does.

6. Bob Dylan

Don’t scoff-several years ago this seemed like a very strong possibility.  Dylan, certainly the poet laureate of the American music scene, has long been celebrated for his ability with lyrical works, and one could hardly argue that his presence in a number of political movements in the 1960’s and 1970’s wouldn’t help with the occasionally politically-charged Nobel Committee (they don't court too much controversy, but they like solid liberal politics).  Dylan’s moment, though, like several authors on this list, seems to have passed.  All of the buzz was there for him in 2011-two years later, it seems to have subsided, and perhaps the Nobel committee will seek out a more relevant political songwriter in the future to receive this “first-time” distinction.

5. Don DeLillo

DeLillo is probably the least well-known author of this bunch, but he has the bibilography (White Noise, for example) and the critical prestige (he's one of Harold Bloom's "Big 4") to warrant inclusion here.  DeLillo's work may not seem to have the intellectual "prestige" that guarantees you inclusion here, but his name is one of the biggest in American letters, and I wouldn't be stunned if it was him who breaks the streak.  DeLillo is one of three men on this list who have a reputation as a recluse, so giving him the award could result in a no-show for the Committee, which they might not want to risk.

4. Thomas Pynchon
Thomas Pynchon is, with Gravity's Rainbow, V, and The Crying of Lot 49, one of the most acclaimed and celebrated authors on the planet.  His work has scooped up the National Book Award and he still is active (his eighth known novel, Bleeding Edge, comes out next week).  We also have no idea what Pynchon looks like.  While DeLillo and McCarthy are reclusive when it comes to the public, they at least have appeared in interviews.  Pynchon, there is literally no way that he'll show up to accept his Nobel (unless this whole loner thing has been leading up to a big entrance in Stockholm), so the Academy would be forgoing a lot of their press and prestige by giving it to a man who wouldn't accept the prize in person.

3. Philip Roth
Roth is regularly cited not just as the greatest living American author, but as the greatest writer on the planet.  He has won the National Book Award (twice), the National Book Critics Circle Award (twice), and the Pulitzer Prize.  With novels like Goodbye Columbus, Portnoy's Complaint, and Sabbath's Theater in his bibliography, he is one of the greatest men of letters and recently celebrated his 80th birthday.  Roth will be on this list until he dies or wins, as people have been pressuring the Nobel committee for decades to give him their top honor, but I sort of wonder if they haven't done it now, will they ever do it?  Roth would have made more sense after the critical acclaim of The Plot Against America in 2004-has his time passed?  And has his pessimism about the future of literature put him in a negative light amidst people whose goal it is to celebrate the art?

2. Cormac McCarthy

The final author on this list that would be a challenge to get to show up (though maybe if Oprah promised to be there), McCarthy, who also turned eighty this past year, seems to be in the perfect position to win the trophy, though he's a tad on the popular side for the Nobel committee these days, with his books regularly being turned into films (No Country for Old Men, The Road, The Sunset Limited), and his work in Hollywood in general (he wrote The Counselor, his first cinematic script since 1976's The Gardener's Son).  That's a small complaint for the committee, though, and I think if an American wins it will be either McCarthy or our number one...

1. Joyce Carol Oates
The young teacher from Lockport, New York, has come to be the First Lady of American Literature.  Oates still regularly writes, and in fact still teaches (though she has stated she'll retire after 2014, when she'll be 76), and considering the Nobel Committee likes a dash of the political and the "come-from-nowhere," it's a wonder that she hasn't won before.  About the only thing to complain about with Oates is that her bibliography is so extensive (she's written over 50 novels), far more extensive than most other authors (I wouldn't be stunned if she's written more novels than Roth, McCarthy, DeLillo, Pynchon, and Doctorow put together).  This makes her more difficult to pin down in a literary sense (where to begin?!?), but her reputation is so strong I think that the Nobel Committee would give her a pass.

And that is my (admittedly amateur) list of the Americans most likely to be the next Nobel Laureate.  Though America has had a bit of a drought, several other countries have highly acclaimed candidates for the prize: Britain is always a possibility, though they've recently won, with Salman Rushdie (who has sacrificed quite a bit for his art) or Ian McEwan their best known candidates.  Canada has never won the prize so Alice Munro or Margaret Atwood would make a lot of sense as well.  But I'll leave it at that, as I've already listed enough authors and I need to go and fill some bibliographic holes in my reading list as a result (I suspect you might too-the library, it's free!)

But also please share your thoughts!  I know we live in a post-literary world, but I'm guessing that a number of you have read some of these authors (anyone got them all)?  Are these the right seven, or do you think perhaps Maya Angelou, Tom Wolfe, Marilynne Robinson, Ishmael Reed, or the next generation Jonathan Franzen would be more likely for the US?  Share in the comments!