2013 Emmy Predictions

We’re in a better late than never situation with the Emmy Awards, as most of you won’t read this until tomorrow morning, when you’ll see how wrong I was.  But for posterity’s sake, here are my Emmy predictions, ranked from most to least likely.  For Miniseries, check here.

Best Comedy Series

Modern Family

The Big Bang Theory

Girls

Louie

30 Rock

Veep

I’m aware I didn’t include Arrested Development, but I’m just not quite feeling it.  The old guard votes on the Emmy Awards, and while AD will certainly have one of the best-ever runs for an online show, I’m just not quite there yet for a show that is broadcast by such a non-traditional outlet.  AD could make it, of course, taking out likely Veep, which had a better-than-its-first season, and I’m not entirely sold that The Office is out of the running for its strong final season.

Best Actress in a Comedy Series

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

Lena Dunham, Girls

Tina Fey, 30 Rock

Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie

Zoeey Deschanel, New Girl

This race is really seven women wide, as stunningly a tie resulted in seven nominees last year, with the other contender being Melissa McCarthy.  McCarthy has a lot of goodwill in Hollywood (she’s a bonafide movie star at this point), but her show doesn’t have the critical backing to get her in again.  My guess is she’s gone, though if The Heat is too big to ignore,  don’t count out Falco or Deschanel missing.  Also, wouldn’t you love to see Sutton Foster nominated here?  I am so depressed that that show hasn't been renewed yet (and looks likely for that big syndication deal in the sky)

Best Actor in a Comedy Series

Louis C.K., Louie

Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock

Don Cheadle, House of Lies

Jason Bateman, Arrested Development

Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men

Bateman’s enough of a big screen star at this point for me to think he pulls this off, despite the Netflix handicap.  Matt LeBlanc was once in Emmys good graces, and is an outside possibility for Episodes, as is Jake Johnson for New Girl (though if both he and Deschanel and Greenfield make it, could it be the surprise contender in Best Comedy Series?).  However, Emmy loves what they already have, and the gargantuan ratings that continue to be seen for Two and a Half Men may leave Jon Cryer with an eighth nomination for the critically-lambasted series.  And with Big Bang on the cusp of winning the big prize, a third trophy for Parsons is not out of the question (and this year he can actually fully acknowledge his life partner.

Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Julie Bowen, Modern Family

Sofia Vergara, Modern Family

Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory

Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock

Jessica Walter, Arrested Development

Kaley Cuoco, The Big Bang Theory

Honestly, I have large reservations about the final three (the first three seem certain)-Walter has the Netflix handicap, Krakowski gets nominated every year and never wins (and Emmy isn’t always nostalgic for final seasons), and Cuoco doesn’t have the acting pedigree that some of the others have.  Merritt Wever is a possibility to replace one of them, but despite critical love for her work, she was a surprise last year.  Betty White is also a possibility, but Hot in Cleveland seems to be in the sunset.  Allison Williams is also a possibility, but her character is intensely unlikeable, so I don’t quite think she’s there yet.  I’m fully expecting one of these women to be wrong, and this is the category I have a feeling I’ll be saying, “duh, of course that would hit” tomorrow morning.  And I pictured Sofia because, though I feel like Bowen or Bialik are probably going to win here, Vergara's work in the series is one of the show's best performances, and if she doesn't win this year, I think that the ship may have sailed.

Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family

Ty Burrell, Modern Family

Ed O’Neill, Modern Family

Max Greenfield, New Girl

Will Arnett, Arrested Development

Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live

Jeffrey Tambor is my guess for another Netflix-related casualty, so I’m just going with the television-favorite Will Arnett for Arrested.  Jesse Tyler Ferguson has always seemed like Emmys weak link of the four Modern Family guys, even though Stonestreet was always my opinion of the weakest acting link of the bunch, so I’m guessing that he manages to miss this time and that they continue to honor Hader instead, though that is not what smart money should be bet upon.  And finally, if my beloved Adam Driver gets a nomination tomorrow, I promise not to complain about any other nominees…for at least the first two paragraphs of my rant.  And am I the only one who is feeling Greenfield vs. O'Neill for the win here?

Best Drama Series

Homeland

Breaking Bad

Downtown Abbey

Mad Men

Game of Thrones

Boardwalk Empire

I’m aware that skipping House of Cards is probably a fool’s errand, but I just don’t see it scoring this high, and am a bit perplexed by everyone’s confidence in it.  If it, in particular, shatters the glass ceiling I suspect that I will have no qualms about guessing web-based series in the future.  In the meantime, Boardwalk looks incredibly weak from an awards-perspective, and so if it isn’t House of Cards that takes it out,  could it be the TV Critics Award favorite The Americans?  I definitely need to get on that series (I’m aware that my not watching the first three series on this list makes me a bad person, but in the case of the first two you can only hear “it’s the best thing ever” enough times before it starts getting annoying, and for some reason I never gave Downton a try).  If network television somehow pulls the miracle and gets a nomination here, it will be for either The Good Wife or Scandal.

Best Actress in a Drama Series

Claire Danes, Homeland

Kerry Washington, Scandal

Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife

Michelle Dockery, Downtown Abbey

Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men

Connie Britton, Nashville

Keri Russell, Vera Farmiga, Glenn Close, and Robin Wright are all perfectly respectable guesses for the final slot, and I’d normally agree with you, but they have to throw something at the best (perhaps only) critically-and-commercially successful freshman network drama, and Emmy favorite Connie Britton seems like your best bet for a reward.  I’m starting to feel like Kerry Washington’s win is inevitable despite a strong argument in favor of Danes, aren’t you?  Washington would make history as the first African-American woman to win in this category, and with the huge word-of-mouth success for her show, a rarity in network television, is something to be admired. 

Best Actor in a Drama Series

Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad

Damian Lewis, Homeland

Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

Jon Hamm, Mad Men

Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom

Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire

This may be the lineup I am most confident in for tomorrow’s announcement.  Cranston, Lewis, and Hamm are mortal locks, Daniels is a movie star breaking out in a television series, Kevin Spacey has two Oscars and no Emmys, and Buscemi is an Emmy perennial.  Hugh Bonneville at least needs to be mentioned considering his nomination last year, but I don’t think he has what it takes to return with a field this marquee.  And the winner also seems the most certain-despite strong competition, it's hard to imagine Cranston not winning this yet again.

Best Supporting Actress in a Drama

Maggie Smith, Downtown Abbey

Christina Hendricks, Mad Men

Christine Baranski, The Good Wife

Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad

Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife

Monica Potter, Parenthood

I really don’t want to put Monica Potter.  This isn’t because she’s not good (I don’t watch the show, but critics seem to be pretty uniformly in favor of her), but because it doesn’t make sense for Emmy to go so out on a limb for a mid-series performance with a character that was already established on the show.  A repeat nomination for Elizabeth McGovern makes way more sense, but pundits seem uniformly behind Potter.  If Potter does break the glass ceiling, however, don’t be surprised if she can ride that to a win: The Good Wifers seem intent on splitting the vote, Breaking Bad doesn’t usually highlight women at awards shows, Mad Men never wins acting trophies, and the Emmys are probably pissed that Maggie Smith always gets nominated and never shows up.

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama

Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad

Mandy Patinkin, Homeland

Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones

Sam Waterston, The Newsroom

Jonathan Banks, Breaking Bad

Corey Stoll, House of Cards

I really am not seeing Stoll getting nominated, but do you have someone?  Mad Men, Homeland, Game of Thrones, and Breaking Bad likely have a plethora of challengers, but none really scream to mind, and so I’m going with Stoll, despite having little confidence in this pick.

And those are my selections-what about you?  What are you most hoping to see tomorrow morning?  Share in the comments!