In the past few weeks, the big focus for Democratic Senate recruitment has been on getting Gov. Brian Schweitzer of Montana to run for the United States Senate, and while we're waiting on that (it's looking likely that he'll make the plunge, as he's got a great shot at winning and will be a much better candidate nationally after delivering a successful win for his party in what could be a tight battle for the Senate), the larger focus for the Democrats has started to center around four women whom the DSCC is trying to persuade into seats where they would start out as the underdogs, but the recruiters know the Democrats would be in a near impossible position next November if they can't get someone to run.
It's kind of nice that, after years of women being a stunningly small minority in the Senate (the first time the number of women in the Senate hit double digits was 2001, and they still only make up a fifth of the body), that we are now at a place that not only a great deal of potential candidates are women, but for the Democratic Party in particular, they are in such a position of power that they are the best (perhaps only) hope the Democrats have of holding a marginal seat or picking up a GOP-held seat. Let's go through the four women (I'll go clockwise from top left), and what I think are the odds that they run.
South Dakota: One of the biggest and most dire retirements for the Democrats in the past six months was the decision by Sen. Tim Johnson, a three-term senator who won reelection in 2008 by 24-points while Barack Obama was losing by 8-points. Some thought that this opened up a chance for the senator's son, US Attorney Brendan Johnson, to win the seat, but he is likely to decline a run right now, as a former aide to Sen. Tom Daschle, Rick Welland is running, and many think he is doing so with the Johnson family's blessing. Welland, however, is not a good enough candidate to hold this without it being a landslide Democratic year, something very unlikely during the President's six-year itch (in a red state besides). Therefore, the best candidate (better than Brendan Johnson) is very much former Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. Herseth Sandlin, who served in the House for seven years between 2004-11, before losing in a nail-biter in 2010 during the landslide Republican victories of that year, is personally popular, and conservative enough in South Dakota to win over moderate and swing voters while still well-liked enough to win in the blue Sioux Falls area without the risk of a "run from the left" primary loss.
Will She Run? It's kind of hard to say. It's obvious that she's not infallible (otherwise she would have been victorious in 2010), but with the loved-nationally, lukewarm-locally Republican Rep. Kristi Noem also exploring a promotion which could set up a bloody GOP primary against Gov. Mike Rounds, Herseth Sandlin definitely has an opening. The thing about South Dakota, for Herseth Sandlin in particular, is that this may be her last real shot at getting onto the national stage in a big way. South Dakota is ridiculously difficult for Democrats when it comes to the governor's mansion (they haven't won it since 1974), and with John Thune, Kristi Noem, and Mike Rounds all relatively young, there may not be another open seat for the next twenty years. For a woman who was once billed as a potential presidential candidate and who got into Congress before she turned 35, that's probably not something she's going to turn down lightly.
Kentucky: We've written quite a bit about the Kentucky Senate race, as it featured actress Ashley Judd for a short while, and is definitely politically vulnerable considering Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's approval ratings, but the Democrats need a strong candidate to take out an electoral heavyweight like McConnell, and the only one that they seem to have their attentions on is Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes.
Will She Run? Like Herseth Sandlin, Lundergan Grimes comes from a political dynasty and has enjoyed solid success as a Democrat in a red state. Unlike Herseth Sandlin, she's got a couple of additional things going for her-principally, that she won her last election, and that she's currently holding elected office. However, Lundergan Grimes would be in a for a nasty campaign-while she likely would clear her primary easily, Mitch McConnell's Senate races typically get ruthless, and it will take a lot of drive for her to make it through an extremely negative campaign. This will be on-top of the fact that Kentucky regularly elects Democrats as governor, and Lundergan Grimes would be a formidable challenger once Gov. Steve Beshear retires in 2015, though a bevy of top-tier names would certainly run there that she won't have to face in the Democratic Primary. All-in-all, I think the pros slightly outweigh the cons for Lundergan Grimes if she has any ambitions about entering the national stage at some point in her career, and my gut tells me she'll do it.
West Virginia: Democrats have been trying to recruit some first tier candidate in this race for a while, but everyone from Rep. Nick Rahall (the last Democrat in the West Virginia U.S. House delegation) to Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin to former Sen. Carte Goodwin have al turned them down. Suspiciously, though, one final first tier candidate has not weighed in on her decision, Secretary of State Natalie Tennant.
Will She Run? She clearly has her sights set on a promotion at some point in her career, and is not one to let a loss get in her way. After losing the 2004 Secretary of State's primary by just over 1000 votes, she went on to a landslide victory in 2008, and won by nearly 25-points in a state Mitt Romney was carrying by nearly the same margin. Polls have shown she'd likely cruise to the nomination, and would be the most competitive Democrat in the race. However, West Virginia is a much redder state now than it used to be, and Sen. Rockefeller himself would have even had trouble running for reelection, despite having held office in the state continuously since 1977. I want to believe Tennant runs, but of the four here, she's the least likely to make the plunge.
Georgia: Occasionally the DSCC and DCCC are at odds with each other, and there was no better illustration of this than the announcement this past week that Rep. John Barrow will continue to stay on in the House, likely running for reelection in 2014 rather than seeking the Senate seat of retiring Sen. Saxby Chambliss. With this announcement, the Democratic math for 2014 becomes slightly less complicated (no one can hold that seat except for Barrow), but the Senate lost their best candidate. Their attentions now go to Michelle Nunn, daughter of legendary former Sen. Sam Nunn.
Will She Run? Considering that she's been toying with it publicly, I have to believe she will. Of the four candidates listed here, Nunn is the only candidate where it's not certain she'd be the best of the names being bandied about, but she's definitely got an appealing profile. The daughter of the well-respected and still popular former Armed Services Committee Chairman, she has devoted her adult life to volunteerism, a great source for biographical ads, and her father could both cut ads for her and help with raising money. Nunn has never held elected office before, which is a double-edged sword in that we don't know what kind of candidate she will be, but she also doesn't have a legislative record for Republicans to run against.
Those are the four biggest question marks (again, outside of Schweitzer) the Democrats are facing in their quest to hold the Senate in 2014. If they can get the majority of these women into the races, there's a good chance that we'll take at least one seat, probably locking up the Senate majority (the GOP really needs all four of these to have a legit shot). If these four take a pass, the Democrats start the next cycle severely handicapped.
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