In the meantime, it's coming close to one of my favorite times of year, when the Tony Award nominations are being announced. I know that not everyone is as into the Tony Awards as they are the Oscars, Emmys, and Grammys, which is somewhat understandable. After all, not everyone can access the New York stage the same way they can a movie, a television set, or their iTunes account. However, even those of you who have never stepped foot in a Broadway theater know the names Sigourney Weaver, Tom Hanks, Stephen Schwartz, David Hyde Pierce, and Cicely Tyson, so hopefully you'll find something to enjoy.
Best Play
My Predictions
1. Vanya and Sonya and Masha and Spike
2. The Assembled Parties
3. Lucky Guy
4. The Other Place
I'm purposefully skipping The Nance, which probably deserves the place being taken by The Other Place, as it's still on Broadway, but I just am not feeling Nathan Lane's return here-the Box Office hasn't been spectacular, and I just don't think it's the sort of play that gets in for the top honor, whereas the reviews for Metcalf in The Other Place appear to be the kind that carries it across the finish line. The reviews for Lucky Guy have also not been spectacular, but the last chance to honor Ephron, who never received a Tony nomination, is probably too good to pass up.
Best Musical
My Predictions
1. Matilda
2. Kinky Boots
3. Motown
4. A Christmas Story
Not what you'd consider a particularly strong year for original musicals. With Cinderella deemed a revival due to the "Classics" rule, that left an opening for one of the year's weaker entries to make it. It seemed like Hands on a Hardbody would be the one to fill it, but its quick closure makes me think that it might be Christmas Story or Bring It On, both long gone on Broadway. With Christmas Story the more likely of the two to be brought back in the future, I'll go with that one for now, but honestly, anything other than Scandalous seems possible there. The first three are locks, and it's going to take a lot of work for Matilda to be knocked off as the winner.
Best Revival of a Play
My Predictions
1. Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?
2. Golden Boy
3. The Trip to Bountiful
4. An Enemy of the People
It's a coin toss between Enemy of the People and the star-studded revival of Glengarry Glen Ross, but I think Enemy, with its better reviews, is probably the safer bet of the two. Who's Afraid, even though it has closed, is still the one to beat though for its nearly perfect reception.
Best Revival of a Musical
My Predictions
1. Pippin
2. Annie
3. Cinderella
4. The Mystery of Edwin Drood
There's only one other possibility (Jekyll & Hyde), and despite it currently playing while the charming Drood has closed, I can't imagine the plagued production will be able to take out any of these locked four. And, for the record, unless Jekyll somehow makes it, I will have seen all of these come next week!
Best Actor in a Play
1. Tom Hanks (Lucky Guy)
2. Tracy Letts (Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?)
3. David Hyde Pierce (Vanya and Sonya and Masha and Spike)
4. Nathan Lane (The Nance)
5. Boyd Gaines (An Enemy of the People)
With so many Tony favorites bubbling right under Lane and Gaines (Alan Cumming, Douglas Hodge), it could very well be that both get ousted, but I think Lane has been in the wilderness for long enough and the voters will recognize that with a nomination. And you should never, ever count out Boyd Gaines (who is always a sturdy presence in his shows), who has a stunning four Tony Awards (this is the only acting category in which he's never won a trophy). And don't let the Hanks position fool you-just because I'm certain that he'll be nominated (that's too much star power to turn down for the Tony Awards), movie stars are very hit-and-miss on Broadway, and Letts and Pierce both have decent shots at the eventual trophy.
Best Actress in a Play
My Predictions
1. Laurie Metcalf (The Other Place)
2. Sigourney Weaver (Vanya and Sonya and Masha and Spike)
3. Cicely Tyson (The Trip to Bountiful)
4. Amy Morton (Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?)
5. Bette Midler (I'll Eat You Last)
Easily the most competitive of all of the Tony categories we're profiling this year, I cannot believe I couldn't find room for Holland Taylor or Fiona Shaw, both of which could be amongst the nominees, but I've got to cut someone (who would have thought a few months ago that cinematic It Girl Jessica Chastain would be completely out of contention for a nomination?). Morton's probably the easiest to cut, but I just don't see Letts getting in while her Martha gets cut. Any combination of those seven names (provided Metcalf and Weaver both make it) wouldn't stun me.
Best Actor in a Musical
My Predictions
1. Billy Porter (Kinky Boots)
2. Anthony Warlow (Annie)
3. Brandon Victor Dixon (Motown)
4. Stark Sands (Kinky Boots)
5. Bertie Carvel (Matilda)
Carvel could be replaced by Jim Norton in Drood (who was so fabulously droll) or Rob McClure in Chaplin, but his Olivier Award coupled with the show's splendid reception makes me think he'll just make it. He won't be able to follow in his Olivier footsteps, though, as I think this is Billy Porter's trophy to lose, as this will likely be the Kinky Boots consolation prize after losing the top prize.
Best Actress in a Musical
1. Patina Miller (Pippin)
2. The Matilda Girls (Matilda) (they'll be sharing the nomination, in a fashion similar to Billy Elliott)
3. Laura Osnes (Cinderella)
4. Lilla Crawford (Annie)
5. Stephanie J. Block (The Mystery of Edwin Drood)
Katie Finneran, what were you thinking? What would have been a surefire nomination in Best Actress has become a bit of a hunt for a nomination in Featured. She could still get in, but this competition is weak enough that she would have basically guaranteed herself a nomination with her 2-Tony pedigree. Without her in, the fight seems to be between Block and Carolee Carmello for Scandalous. Carmello is probably the safer bet (she has been blessed with two Tony nominations in the past), but personal love for Block, who has been a Broadway trooper forever and has never gotten her moment in the sun (but has filled in for other Tony-winning roles) makes me hope the Tony committee decides to finally recognize a talented trooper in a brilliant musical.
Editor's Note: It has come to my attention that the Matilda girls were deemed ineligible for the Tony Award, instead receiving a special Tony Award as a consolation prize. As a result, I'd move everyone up and it now appears that Carolee Carmello AND Stephanie J. Block will be enjoying nominations. And yes, this makes Katie Finneran seem even more foolish, as she'll likely miss out in Featured and could have landed her first lead citation.
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