Oscars: State of the Race

So, though we’ll likely get some potential buzz components in the next couple of weeks (primarily, box office and guild nominations, though there’s always the wedding, death, divorce, scandal, Russell Crowe hitting someone with a phone sorts of situations), at this point, it seems to me that we’ve got all of the major precursor pieces that we’re going to get for Oscar’s Best Picture, Animated Feature, and Acting races, and so while these are not my final predictions, they are worth noting, as we have our Golden Globe, SAG, and (ugh) Critics Choice Award nominations, as well as the Triple Crown of NYFCC, NBR, and LAFCA.

Best Picture

So far…

Critics Triple Crown: Zero Dark Thirty and Amour

Critics Choice Awards: Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, The Master, Moonrise Kingdom, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty

Golden Globes: Argo, Django Unchained, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Les Miserables, Moonrise Kingdom, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen, Silver Linings Playbook

SAG Awards (Best Cast, but Still): Argo, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Les Miserables, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook

Other Names That Should Be Mentioned: None to speak of-The Hobbit hasn’t received one speck of a mention, which means it’s likely out, and The Dark Knight Rises also seems to be a bit of an afterthought.

What This Means: I think we can all start counting Zero Dark, Argo, Lincoln, Les Miz, and Silver Linings into the Oscar pool, as that is clearly the Top 5. As for the rest of the list, I suspect that with the odd new voting system that Life of Pi will also make it. As for the rest of the bunch, I’m having trouble getting a gage-I think seven seems like the most likely number, but I’m torn between it being Beasts, Django (which no one’s really seen yet-it could be awesome or terrible, and we’d have no way of knowing), The Master, or Best Exotic. For the sake of argument, I’m going with Beasts, because it probably has the most ardent fan base, but the lack of nominations for Wallis in most precursors has to hurt.

Best Actor
So far…
Critics Triple Crown: Daniel Day-Lewis, Joaquin Phoenix, Bradley Cooper
Critics Choice Awards: Daniel Day-Lewis, Joaquin Phoenix, Bradley Cooper, Hugh Jackman, John Hawkes, Denzel Washington
Golden Globes: Daniel Day-Lewis, Richard Gere, John Hawkes, Denzel Washington, Joaquin Phoenix, Bradley Cooper, Jack Black, Ewan McGregor, Bill Murray
SAG Awards: Bradley Cooper, Daniel Day-Lewis, Joaquin Phoenix, John Hawkes, Denzel Washington
Other Names That Should Be Mentioned: Matt Damon’s late-breaking work in Promised Land or Jamie Foxx in Django Unchained both are theoretically possibilities, but neither have the feel of someone who swoops in and lands a nomination out-of-nowhere.
What This Means: I think at this point it would be foolish to bet against DDL, Hawkes, or Washington, and though he’s the lead in a musical (usually terrible news for a lead actor), Jackman feels like the fourth nominee (weird aside, but Jackman may well be the only first-time acting nominee this year). The final slot seems to be a battle between Cooper and Phoenix (with Gere on the outside-looking-in once more), and while I’m guessing Cooper (Harvey is backing that horse, and it’s never wise to bet against Harvey), the Academy has shown that it doesn’t mind nominating people who bash it publicly, and so Phoenix isn’t completely out of the question.

Best Actress
So far…
Critics Triple Crown: Emmanuelle Riva, Jessica Chastain, Rachel Weisz, Jennifer Lawrence
Critics Choice Awards: Quvenzhane Wallis, Emmanuelle Riva, Marion Cotillard, Jessica Chastain, Jennifer Lawrence, Naomi Watts
Golden Globes: Helen Mirren, Rachel Weisz, Naomi Watts, Jessica Chastain, Marion Cotillard, Meryl Streep, Jennifer Lawrence, Emily Blunt, Judi Dench
SAG Awards: Helen Mirren, Marion Cotillard, Jessica Chastain, Jennifer Lawrence, Naomi Watts
Other Names That Should Be Mentioned: Somewhere, Keira Knightley is wondering what she needs to do to get a second Oscar nomination, considering the prestige fare she’s been in since her first: Atonement, Never Let Me Go, A Dangerous Method, and now Anna Karenina have all missed for her.
What This Means: If you take Streep and Smith out of the race, almost any combination of these women seems plausible. I suspect that Chastain and Lawrence are mortal locks by now, and Watts and Cotillard certainly feel that way, which leaves Riva, Dench, Wallis, Mirren, and Weisz to contend for the final nod, though I’m going to throw out Wallis and Dench based on a relative lack of buzz. Weisz is from a very small film, but she’s certainly got a fanbase considering she keeps getting in, so she’s my surprise guess, but I’ll beti it's Riva versus Mirren. Riva’s film is underseen, and the fact Mirren is well-liked by the Academy makes me want to lean toward her, though either she, Watts, or Cotillard could be the “lots of precursors, not a lot of Oscar” and make way for Weisz or Riva.

Best Supporting Actor

So far…

Critics Triple Crown: Matthew McConaughey, Dwight Henry, Leonardo DiCaprio
Critics Choice Awards: Alan Arkin, Javier Bardem, Robert de Niro, Matthew McConaughey, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Tommy Lee Jones
Golden Globes: Alan Arkin, Tommy Lee Jones, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Leonardo DiCaprio, Christoph Waltz
SAG Awards: Alan Arkin, Javier Bardem, Tommy Lee Jones, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Robert de Niro
Other Names That Should Be Mentioned: John Goodman and Bryan Cranston both have a lot going for them, and at least one person usually makes it without any precursor support-if that’s happening this year, I suspect it’s one of these two, though I don’t think I’m guessing either of them at this point.
What This Means: This category tends to be the most “by-the-book” with its first four nominees, and rarely
snubs a frontrunner, so I am going to say that Jones, Arkin, Hoffman, and de Niro are all making it. It’d be wild if Henry, McConaughey, Cranston, or Goodman made it, considering the surprise factor (and that they’d all be getting a first-time nomination), but something tells me that this is DiCaprio. The Bardem thing is bizarre to me, and I’m going to disregard it, though a SAG and a BFCA-nominated performance cannot be dismissed completely out-of-hand. Also, who is the frontrunner to win here-Jones, Hoffman, or de Niro?

Best Supporting Actress
So far…
Critics Triple Crown: Sally Field, Amy Adams, Ann Dowd
Critics Choice Awards: Amy Adams, Sally Field, Helen Hunt, Anne Hathaway, Ann Dowd, Judi Dench
Golden Globes: Amy Adams, Sally Field, Helen Hunt, Anne Hathaway, Nicole Kidman
SAG Awards: Maggie Smith, Sally Field, Helen Hunt, Anne Hathaway, Nicole Kidman

Other Names That Should Be Mentioned: Kerry Washington, Kelly Reilly, and Jennifer Ehle all have their reasons to be nominated, and late-breaking support for either Django or ZDT could sway this race, but I’m not feeling any of them right now.

What This Means: Field, Hunt, Hathaway, and Adams all feel like nominees. I know that Adams hasn’t cleaned up everywhere, but the Academy adores the girl, and this field is empty enough that she should

score a fourth Supporting Actress nomination (getting her that much closer to the record) which leaves Kidman, Smith, and Dowd fighting it out for the final slot (again, the Dench thing I can’t get my head around-a Bond film for Oscar?-so I’m disregarding it). Smith is the traditional choice, Kidman is the precursor choice at this point (who would have thought that last week?), and Dowd feels like the nominee (based on this category’s history of always nominating at least one first-timer). I’m going with Dowd, but any of the three would make complete sense to me at this point.

Best Animated Feature

So far…

Critics Triple Crown: Frankenweenie, Wreck-It Ralph

Critics Choice Awards: Brave, Frankenweenie, Wreck-It Ralph, Rise of the Guardians, Madagascar 3, ParaNorman

Golden Globes: Hotel Transylvania, Brave, Frankenweenie, Wreck-It Ralph, Rise of the Guardians

Other Names That Should Be Mentioned: A strong year for animation, but I wouldn’t discount GKids, a recent stronghold at the Oscars, with either The Painting or From Up on Poppy Hill. Also, The Lorax made a mountain of cash, and therefore deserves at least to be mentioned, though its reviews will cost it. 

What This Means: Frankenweenie and Wreck-It Ralph are battling it out for the win, and Brave gets in by default (Pixar has only missed once, and this has too good of reviews to miss). The final two slots are hard-Rise of the Guardians has a lot going for it, but its box office hasn’t been strong, and it seems like an also-ran, though I’d be foolish to not predict something that’s scored this many precursors, so I’m guessing it’s in. That leaves ParaNorman, Hotel Transylvania, and the two GKids films, and of the four, despite ParaNorman’s stellar reviews, I’m going with The Painting-you’d be hard-pressed to find a recent year that didn’t honor a foreign film, and this seems like the buzzier of the two. If Rise falls, ParaNorman and Poppy Hill both could sneak in for that slot.