2012: The $100-Million Record Breaker?

I’m getting extremely excited for the upcoming fall season, but everyone always seems to focus on the fall season through the lens of Oscar and the summer season through Box Office, so I’m going to look at this in a different way: can 2012 break the record set in 2009 of the most $100 million movies?

It's an interesting conundrum-the last two years in a row, the Box Office has come up with 30-$100 million movies, but the record actually currently belongs to 2009, when 32 films would go on to win $100 million at the Box Office.  Taking a look at 2009, you get a number of guaranteed $100 million movies (Transformers, Harry Potter, Twilight, Pixar, Ice Age, Night at the Museum, X-Men, and Fast & the Furious all had installments in their respective franchises), but you also had a strong cadre of non-franchise hits: romantic comedies were huge (The Proposal, It's Complicated), come-out-of-nowhere gross-out comedies took off (The Hangover, Paul Blart), new franchises were started/attempted/re-booted (Avatar, Star Trek, Gi Joe, G-Force, Watchmen, Sherlock Holmes), animated non-franchise hits (Monsters vs. Aliens, A Christmas Carol, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs), and adult thrillers did surprisingly well (2012, Taken).  In fact, if you look at $90 million-plus, there were four more movies that don't scream $100 million movies just about to get there: Public Enemies, Julie & Julia, He's Just Not That Into You, and Madea Goes to Jail.  And perhaps most tellingly, Academy Award-nominated films were actually watched by people: a grand total of 5 of the Top 10 Best Picture nominees (Avatar, Up, The Blind Side, Inglourious Basterds, and District 9) all passed $100 million.  Compare that with last year where The Help was the only Best Picture nominee to make over $100 million, and the next closest was War Horse at $79 million.

So currently, in 2012, we have seventeen films that have crossed that $100 million point, and we may see why 2009's record could stay intact.  We do have a stunningly high list of franchise hits for either new, rebooted, or ongoing franchises (ten in all, eleven if you count Pixar as a franchise).  You do have a couple of surprise non-franchise hits (Denzel can still pack them in with Safe House, Ted was a come-out-of-nowhere film that is still packing them in enough to score $200 million by the end of its run, and the magic that is Channing Tatum has elevated 21 Jump Street, The Vow, and Magic Mike to $100 million).  Throw in the stand-alone hit of The Lorax, and those are the seventeen.  Unless The Watch explodes this weekend (doubtful), there are no films in theaters that will join them-the closest was Think Like a Man at $91 million (a solid hit, for sure, but there's no way it gets another $9 million).

 

So now's when we look at the upcoming films; I’ll sort them into four remaining categories.

Films that are Guaranteed to make $100 million: Skyfall, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey,

These films could be in the $100 million column, depending on audience/critical reaction: Total Recall (August action movies either flame out spectacularly or are money machines running on the remaining summer cash of teenage boys), The Campaign (if the duo can sell something other than elves and drunken frat parties gone horribly wrong), Hope Springs (don’t mock, Meryl’s Box Office Gold lately), The Expendables 2 (the original, though a hit, only made $103 million so I’m not guaranteeing anything here in a Twilight/Bond sort of way), House at the End of the Street (horror films sometimes surprise, and Lawrence is a big star as of late), Taken 2 (the first was a surprise hit-will this be a one-and-done sort of situation, or will audiences want more?), Here Comes the Boom (like it or not, Kevin James is a Box Office Draw), Paranormal Activity 4 (like The Expendables, it toes the line pretty closely with $100 million, so it’s not guaranteed), Cloud Atlas (once-upon-a-time people liked Tom Hanks, and this actually sounds strong as a stand-alone hit),  Flight (Denzel may be the most consistent Box Office presence still left from the 1990’s-Safe House proved that), This is 40 (a strong bet, though Funny People proved he can falter at the Box Office), Jack Reacher (will Tom be affected by the divorce?),

These Films are Mainstream and Animated, and Therefore Are Always a Threat for $100 million (there is no genre that consistently hits $100 million more often these days than animated, mainstream hits): Paranorman, Hotel Transylvania, Frankenweenie (there’s a lot of spooky-themed animated films this year-weird trend considering that isn’t where animated studios have gone with this lately), Wreck-It-Ralph, Rise of the Guardians

If they get a Best Picture nomination, they could pull a “King’s Speech” and get in: Won’t Back Down, Argo, Killing Them Softly, Anna Karenina, The Great Gatsby, Lincoln, Life of Pi, Hyde Park on Hudson, Les Miserables, Django Unchained

So looking at the list, there’s a lot of possibility, but in reality, I just don’t see 33 in the cards.  Adding in the guaranteed three hits, you’re at twenty.  If you gently peruse the possible $100 million hits and if I were forced to make a prediction, I’d say that Total Recall, Taken 2, Paranormal Activity 4, Cloud Atlas, Flight, and This is 40 will all take in $100 million, getting us up to 26.  Looking at the Best Picture lineup, the only three that scream $100 million are Django Unchained and Les Miserables-Ang Lee and Steven Spielberg have both made $100 million movies before, but the last time they did it with a non-franchise/blockbuster film was 2000 and 2002, respectively.  For the sake of argument, let’s say there’s a Blind Side/The Help still left in the year, and that brings us up to 29.  That would mean of the five remaining animated films of the year, four of them are going to have to make $100 million to break the record.  An extremely tall order, especially since three of the films seem incredibly similar.  I suspect that we may be in for yet another 30-$100 million film year.  And it’s said every year, but it can never be said enough-the way that Hollywood could repeat the success of 2009 is to trust audiences that aren’t teenage/college-age boys or children under 10, along with the parents that are dragged with them.  Looking at 2009, you saw films for nearly every age or gender demographic represented.  And yet, in the upcoming months, despite the huge hits that were The Blind Side, The Help, and Bridesmaids, do you see a large number female-ensembles or female-led movies?  No, you don’t, and wouldn’t you think some smart studio head would see that and start consistently filling that hole that pops up in every Summer and Fall calendar lineup?

Anyway, we’ll be back to the Oscars soon enough, but what about you?  What are you most looking forward to in the second half of 2012 (for me, it’s The Hobbit, Anna Karenina, Life of Pi, Django Unchained, and To the Wonder)?  Do you think that 2012 can produce 33-$100 million movies?  And when will Hollywood start marketing big pictures to all age and gender demographics, instead of just two?