10. Minnesota-In theory, the DFL should never lose a race in this state. The "swing state" status of this state is about as true as Arizona's for the Democrats-the opposite party can win, but only when the dominant party screws up. And this year, the DFL has screwed up big time. Al Franken, despite being a fine orator, exciting, and a solid fundraiser, is not "Minnesotan." His articles about Porn-O-Rama and tax problems are sticking to rural Minnesotans, and they aren't going to forgive, particularly after getting burned with Jesse. It's looking likely that Coleman pulls this off, which is unfortunate because against any other DFL candidate would have been able to pull this off.
9. Mississippi-Much like above, there shouldn't be a way that the Republicans are losing here. The state that elected Trent Lott and Haley Barbour shouldn't have any problem with a mainstream conservative like Roger Wicker. And yet, Wicker's zilch name recognition seems likely to fall victim to the universal name recognition of Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, a conservative Democrat who has held this race at a tie for most of the cycle. Granted, Musgrove will need a lead in the polls to pull this off in November, but he's holding his own, which is why this is in the Top 10.
8. North Carolina-Elizabeth Dole is one of those politicians who runs well as a celebrity, less as a candidate (think Jerry Brown, John Glenn, etc.). Her presidential race in 2000 went nowhere, her race in 2002 was surprisingly close, her tenure as chair of the NRSC handed the Senate to the Democrats, and now she's running even in her reelection race. I still think that she pulls this off, but it's going to be very, very close. State Sen. Kay Hagan may be one of the best candidate recruitments of the cycle, and the DSCC's willingness to shove $5 million into this race shows that Chuck Schumer has recognized this.
7. Louisiana-The only Democratic seat in this list, and one that is probably very much in limbo right now. In a perfect world, a civil servant as outstanding as Mary Landrieu wouldn't have any trouble taking down an empty suit like John Kennedy, but the Republican-tilt of this state, particularly evident when you witness the landslide that Bobby Jindal pulled off last year, is going to keep her on her toes. However, this game is still decidedly hers, and until John Kennedy starts to show the state reasons to vote for him, I think she's going to take it.
Interestingly, with William Jefferson likely to lose or be arrested soon and David Vitter (aka Senator Red Light) likely going down in 2010, this state is going to lose it's seniority hard soon, and so voting out Landrieu, a member of the powerful Appropriations Committee, is going to seem very impractical.
6. Oregon-This is the magical spot on the list where I stop thinking the incumbent-party will keep it, and start siding with the challengers. Oregon's Sen. Gordon Smith is a fine man, and an excellent candidate, but the reality is that this is a state that Obama is going to improve upon John Kerry's margin in, and the presidential candidate will be coming armed with coattails, which means that Democratic House Speaker Jeff Merkley has a very solid shot at taking this seat, even though his campaign has been underwhelming thusfar. This is, in my opinion, going to be the closest race in November, but right now I'm guessing the upset and thinking that Smith will be one of three incumbent Senators to go down in November.
5. Alaska-Another incumbent that I'm guessing goes down is the far more senior Ted Stevens. Stevens, in fact, is the most senior Republican in the caucus, and a legend of Alaska. Stevens, who normally would have no trouble being reelected, is in the middle of a huge indictment scandal, and as the mayor of Anchorage, Mark Begich seems to have run the right race at the right time. He reminds me a lot of Tony Knowles, the state's recent two-term governor, but I think Begich is going to do what Knowles couldn't-get elected to the Senate. A wild card here will be the Palin coattails (there will be some)-will they help or hurt Stevens, whom she has publicly lambasted? My guess is the latter. In an interesting side note, if Stevens does go down, Richard Lugar will become the most senior Republican in the Senate, followed by Orrin Hatch, Thad Cochran, and Chuck Grassley.
4. Colorado-This and Number 3 on the list are both states where McCain's coattails could have an effect, but I doubt it. Colorado, which has seen a solid swing to the blue side of the map in the last four years, looks like it's going to have it's real test this year with a solid liberal facing off against a solid conservative. In the past couple of years, the Salazar brothers, Bill Ritter, and Ed Perlmutter were all fairly moderate Democrats, but Rep. Mark Udall is quite liberal, though from a legendary Mountain State family. While this will be tight, he scored a major coup in running against Rep. Bob Schaeffer, a rather abysmal candidate who couldn't even beat Pete Coors in 2004. I'm going to have to say that Udall pulls this off and becomes this cycle's Sherrod Brown.
3. New Hampshire-Sen. John Sununu is a better candidate than Gov. Jeanne Shaheen. But 2006 proved that the environment in the Granite State is completely toxic for Republicans, and Shaheen has yet to be behind Sununu in a poll in this race. It appears as if Sununu is on borrowed time, but you can bet that he'll have a spot in a McCain Administration.
2. New Mexico-It's a coin toss between this race and the number one being most likely to switch, but the reality is that this seat, left open by retiring Sen. Pete Domenici (R), is headed to the Democrats. The one chance the GOP had to keep this in their corner they turned down when they picked the ultra-conservative Rep. Steve Pearce in the primary over moderate Rep. Heather Wilson. This has left open the seat for Rep. Tom Udall (D, and yes, cousin to Mark) to add Senator to his already impressive resume.
1. Virginia-Gov. Mark Warner will win this, nuf said. Actually, it should be noted his keynote speech was terrible, even if he's a great public servant who will follow in the lines of another great public servant, Sen. John Warner (R-VA). Now nuf said.
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