Senate Time Capsule

Well, it seems that the Democrats have won back the U.S. Senate, and much congratulations have to go out to all of the new senators, as well as those that have been reelected.

Two years ago, one wouldn't have expected any sort of race for George Allen, Mike DeWine, or Lincoln Chafee, and yet they will soon be collecting unemployment. Which is why this exercise may seem silly, but I want a Senate Outlook Chart that I can mock myself for in two years, so here's a preview of what to look for two years from now.

It should be noted that this will be a much easier cycle for Democrats, as there are more Republicans up for reelection than there are Democrats. This is why you will hear that Republicans will have trouble taking back the Senate in 2008.

1. Colorado-No state in the last four years has best illustrated a state that Democrats can turn purple: it's given the Democrats the governor's mansion, a Senate seat, two House seats, and both chambers of its state legilature. This will be a top target in more than one way in 2008-expect the Democratic nominee for president to be gunning for its nine electoral votes, the Democrats will continue gunning for CO-4, and of course this seat. Rep. Mark Udall is already running for this seat, and his tenure in the House, plus his golden last name, make him a good candidate here. Wayne Allard may run for reelection, or could potentially retire. Allard's not very popular, but only Bill Owens would guarantee any sort of victory for Republicans in an open seat. Either way, Udall will be a major player in the battle for the Senate 2008.

2. New Mexico-If Pete Domenici retires, this becomes a marquee race that NM politicos have been talking about for years: Rep. Tom Udall (yes, another Udall-I believe they are cousins) will take on moderate Rep. Heather Wilson. The Dems best candidate would be Gov. Bill Richardson, who would even be able to defeat Domenici, but Udall is a good follow-up. If the statewide races of 2006 (which went almost exclusively blue) are any indication, Wilson could be in trouble, but she's a legendary campaigner and will definitely give Udall a run for his money.

Update: Domenici has announced that he will run again, which I still think could change (remember Jeffords and Nighthorse Campbell). However, if he does run again, this race starts to drop for a while. The Dems won't be able to get Udall, but Schumer will likely target Gov. Bill Richardson or Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, who would be better candidates than Udall. Also, if those two fail, he may try the retiring Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron.

3. Louisiana-If there's one Democrat who is accustomed to close races, it is Sen. Mary Landrieu, who happens to be one of the few Southern Democrats still left in the U.S. Senate. There are two factors that are both terribly hurting and potentially helping Mary Landrieu. Hurting her terribly is Hurricane Katrina, and the question mark of whether or not black voters have dissipated to the point where this is a state that will be impossible for Democrats to win in. The goverenor's race will provide some clue. Helping her is the fact that her top opponent, Rep. Bobby Jindal proved before that he has trouble being elected statewide. Expect to hear a lot more on this race later.

4. Minnesota-Norm Coleman has the same problem and blessing of Mary Landrieu. He is in a state that recent trends show will make it damn near impossible for Republicans to win statewide. Coleman isn't popular, and will be seriously overshadowed by the well-liked Amy Klobuchar. However, I can't figure out who will run agaisnt him. Mike Hatch will consider it, but he's the Bobby Jindal equivalent in Minnesota-he just won't be able to win. Lori Swanson, Rebecca Otto, and Mark Ritchie are now the Dems rather impressive bench, but they were just elected to their positions, so they're likely out. Senate Leader Dean Johnson lost reelection, For. Auditor Judi Dutcher just lost the Lt. Governor race, and the House bench features a novice (Tim Walz), two partisan liberals (Betty McCollum and Keith Ellison), and two aging House chairmen (Collin Peterson and Jim Oberstar). The Dems are going to need to find another Klobuchar lying around: perhaps they'll go with popular mayor R.T. Rybak, a female from the House leadership like Connie Bernardy or Ann Lenczewski (who is pro-life), or risk it with the waiting-in-line Betty Mccollum? Once those questions are answered, then we'll know about the challenge to Coleman.

5. New Hampshire-If this past cycle showed anything, it was that New England Republcians are an endangered species, and one-term Senator John Sununu has to be shaking in his boots. This is one of those races where it all comes down to one candidate: if fantastically popular governor John Lynch runs against him, he will start the race a severe underdog. Otherwise, Sununu would have to be favored. Expect a Draft Lynch movement to begin soon. Sununu has spent his first term keeping a well-balanced, moderate record, and will be able to honestly run as a centrist.

Update: Lynch claims that he won't be running for this seat. Granted, he could go after Gregg's seat in 2010 (that may be smarter, as, if Sununu loses in 2008, he'll likely retire). That severely limits the Democrats for 2008, as their best candidate is Jeanne Shaheen, who lost in 2002 (anyone know the last time a Senate rematch changed a seat)?

6. South Dakota-Like Sununu, this is a race that depends all on one governor, in this case Mike Rounds, the popular Republican incumbent. If Rounds runs against Tim Johnson in his quest for a third term, this will be the barn-burner of the cycle. However, if Johnson can avoid the Rounds challenge, he should be able to cruise to victory ala Stephanie Herseth this cycle.

7. Oregon-Gordon Smith is moderately popular, but Dems seem on a quest to purge blue states of Republican senators, and this certainly would be toward the top of blue state Republicans. John Kitzhaber, the former governor who remains popular, would be a fine candidate here, and would make this a tossup instantly. However, if Kitzhaber stays out, Smith will have a major advantage, as he is well-liked not only by the public, but also by fellow Sen. Ron Wyden (D).

8. Maine-I include this not because Collins is unpopuar, or, to be honest, all that vulnerable (she isn't). I put this in because Collins had stated in the past that she would only serve two terms in the Senate, and she may retire to become governor of Maine. If this happens, the Republicans have no bench in this state to run a candidate, and Rep. Tom Allen, the very liberal congressman who has been waiting patiently for one of the twins to leave office, will cruise to an easy victory here, giving another New England seat to the Democrats.

9. Virginia-John Warner is not going to lose. Despite Virginia's clear friendliness to vote Democratic as of late (Warner, Kaine, and Webb can attest), Warner is an institution in the state. However, if he decides that this is the time to retire, all eyes will be on For. Gov. Mark Warner, who will begged and pleaded with to run for the seat (Kaine would be a very strong, but definitely second place, choice). For the Republicans, Rep. Tom Davis has been waiting patiently for his turn at the Senate. Mark Warner would be the recruit of the cycle, and don't think that Chuck Schumer, who may chair the DSCC again, isn't already thinking about what committee slots he could dangle in front of his face.

Update: Rumors are swirling fast and hard that Warner will retire this cycle; if Schumer drafts Mark Warner to run here, consider it the biggest draft win of the cycle, the equivalent of Bob Casey, Jr. last cycle-otherwise, the Dems will have a slightly harder time picking this seat up.

10. Montana-Two things about this race could skyrocket it or push it into safe territory. If Max Baucus retires, Rep. Denny Rehberg will run for this seat, and this seat will in all likelihood be perched at number one for the rest of the cycle. However, if Baucus stays in office, he may be the only person who could take on a Rehberg challenge. If Rehberg doesn't challenge, this will drop off the top twenty, and Baucus will be as safe as can be.

11. Michigan-One of the Dems most vulnerable seats that became a lot less vulnerable after the latest election-Levin will likely run for reelection, and, as can be witnessed by Stabenow's recent strong win, the Dems have a stronghold with their incumbents. If Levin does retire, the Dems are scrapped; Granholm just won a tough reelection, which will make the bid for a Senate seat so soon seem opportunistic, John Cherry, her Lt. Governor, has been invisible most of this career, and Bart Stupak's the only congressman who could make a legitimate claim on this. Meanwhile, the Republicans have Rep. Candice Miller, Attorney General Michael Cox, and Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. All in all, the Dems better pray that Levin stays in office.

12. Arkansas-I put this in, but I think in the next round, this will drop dramatically. Huckabee seems intent on running for president, and Pryor is more popular than Lincoln. Plus, Republicans just missed out on all four statewide offices, so their bench is completely tapped. The only reason this seat is so high is that if the GOP truly wants to regain the Senate, they will have to look at red state Dems like this.

13. New Jersey-Lautenberg, if he knows what's good for the Dems, would retire this cycle. The Dems could not be in a better position to pick up this seat: Bob Menendez just clobbered Tom Kean, Jr., the Republicans best candidate, and there's a great bench in Reps. Pallone, Andrews, and Holt. The Republicans have Charlie Cristie, the only GOP member who could actually win in New Jersey. As it is, though, Lautenberg will win, have a ten-point instead of the should-be twenty point victory, and New Jersey will continue to have two of the lowest-approved Senators.

14. North Carolina-Elizabeth Dole should have no trouble, should she stay in office, and avoid one candidate: Gov. Mike Easley. Sen. John Edwards won't run here, but I suspect Easley could be coaxed into it. Expect Chuck Schumer to go here, especially if New Mexico can't yield a candidate of quality.

15. West Virginia-Once again, expect a chorus of, "Shelley Moore Capito! Shelley Moore Capito!" Had the Dems not won back the Senate, Rockefeller would have retired and this would have been yet another Southern state that elected a Republican. However, Rockefeller will continue on, chairing his committee, and the Dems will win this again (and Moore Capito will have to wait...and wait...and wait).

16. Iowa-It's technically a red state, but I suspect that will be changed in 2008 (especially after the Culver/Braley/Loebsack/Boswell punch of 2006). Harkin won't retire now that he's a chairman, and though Republicans could put up defeated gubernatorial candidate Rep. Jim Nussle or Rep. Steve King, this will be an uphill fight for the GOP.

17. Delaware-I include this only because, should Joe Biden retire and Rep. Michael Castle run for the seat, the GOP could pick this up. Should Castle retire or Biden announce his reelection, this will drop easily out of the Top Twenty. As it is, I'll keep it simmering, seeing what seats may rise into the Top Twenty. FYI, if Biden does retire Treasurer Jack Markell or Atty. Gen. Beau Biden (his son) will be the frontrunners for the Dems.

18. Mississippi-Thad Cochran's at the top of the retirement lists, and while I can't imagine that the Dems could ever pick up a Senate seat in Mississippi, Atty. Gen. Mike Moore has been so bragged up through the years, I'm kind of curious to see what sort of margin he would receive. The Republican frontrunner would be Rep. Chip Pickering, but purportedly Rep. Roger Wicker, especially in the minority, doesn't want to sit around and crown Pickering, so we could be looking at a primary.

19. Oklahoma-In normal situations, Republicans wouldn't have a prayer of losing a federal race in Oklahoma, but if the Dems could convince Drew Edmondson or Brad Henry to run here, and if Inhofe lives up to his potential, we could see a Conrad Burns/Jim Bunning situation here. The Republicans lose (or almost lose) because of a truly awful incumbent.

20. Alaska-Only if Ted Retires will we see anything wrong here. However, Ted looks to be running again, so I'll just wait for another race to enter the Top Twenty. Look for this to drop next time.