John Williams is, without-a-doubt, the most influential composer in movie history. You could make an argument that, with the possible exception of The Beatles, more people have heard his music than literally any other musician. Even if they didn't realize it, if you've seen Star Wars, Jaws, Jurassic Park, Harry Potter, or ET...you've heard the music of John Williams. Williams has more Oscar nominations than any person except Walt Disney, numbering 53 in total, and while he'll never break Disney's record (more on why in a second), Disney pulled off his achievement with virtually no other players in the game (almost all of his nominations were for short films, in an era where Disney's studios were the most important name in animation), while Williams did it consistently against hundreds of other movies each year, all of which had film scores.
Williams is not only influential, but beloved, as those 53 nominations indicate. If you can find me a cinephile who doesn't have a special place in their hearts for at least a dozen of his scores, I will find you someone who is lying. Even more so than figures like Martin Scorsese and Meryl Streep, his name is synonymous with a certain type of nostalgic filmmaking that no one else does as well (despite many imitators ranging from Hans Zimmer to Thomas Newman who are also Oscar institutions). Williams is 91, and as a result will never break Disney's 58 nomination record. The maestro indicated earlier this year that his latest film, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, would be his final movie, but has since rescinded that proclamation, though he has yet to announce another follow-up film. Even so, given his advanced age, and his slowing down (in recent years, he's hard to turn down composing gigs like Bridge of Spies and Ready Player One, which he'd normally have done due to his close partnership with Steven Spielberg, because of health issues that decades earlier he would've pulled off without issue), it's inevitable that we are not far from the end of Williams' iconic filmography coming to a close.
Which brings me back to this year's Oscar nominations. My friend Cody & I have a bet (we made months ago), over whether or not Williams will get a nomination, with me guessing he will and Cody saying he won't. Looking at most leading pundits, I'm in the minority on this one. A lot of people don't think Williams will get in, and there are a few key points against him. Williams didn't get a Globe nomination for Dial of Destiny (though he was cited by the Grammys), the sequel is to a film that he missed for (Kingdom of the Crystal Skull got a Grammy nomination, but no Oscar citation), and it's for a film that not many people liked. The movie was a giant flop, and doesn't even have the Spielberg backing (both Spielberg and George Lucas executive produced it, but neither directed it). It's against a lot of stiff competition, as the Music Branch's shortlist numbered a ton of Best Picture contenders, and we are entering an era where the tech categories are completely dominated by the Best Picture field. Plus, Williams has had some misses recently-not just Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, but he also was skipped for The BFG and The Post.
But here's why I feel like I am right, and that I'm going to win my bet. First, there's only really one "lock" in this category right now, Ludwig Goransson's (very loud) score to Oppenheimer, which will surely win. The rest of the field is influx, and some of the peculiarities of the Music Branch (the most insular branch in the Academy) help Williams a lot. For starters, there's five films that are in the "predicted ten" that are on the shortlist, but have never been nominated for Best Score before; Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, The Holdovers, American Fiction, & Barbie would all have composers getting their first nominations. 1-2 of them might make it through, no doubt, but historically we have not seen that many first-time composers cited here-they like to go with what they know. Beyond that, we have two films that have a better shot at Best Original Song (The Color Purple, American Symphony) and two films with first-time contenders that have no Best Picture heat (The Boy and the Heron, Saltburn) which would number as unusual by Academy standards. Of the remaining four films (save Oppenheimer and Dial of Destiny) that have previous nominees, one is a composer that has fallen-out-of-favor (Society of the Snow's Michael Giacchino hasn't gotten a nomination since 2009), and two are one-time nominees with headaches behind them (Mica Levi's minimalist score to Zone of Interest isn't their usual taste even if she's behind a likely Best Picture nominee, while Daniel Pemberton is scoring a sequel, which they can be picky about if you're not John Williams). The final contender, Thomas Newman's Elemental...probably is getting nominated given Pixar's track record for music & Newman's personal track record with Oscar (15 nominations and counting).
All of this, to use some political terms, gives John Williams an opportunity to split the vote. Williams is going to show up on certain ballots no matter what-even when he misses, I'm guessing he's always close. There's a contingent of the Academy that will back him in the way that they do Meryl Streep or Sandy Powell-they always show up. If there were 3-4 locks and he was competing for fifth place, I'd say that this would be a good time for him to miss, but his making the shortlist and so many Best Picture nominees splitting up quadrants, combined with sentimentality about this being the last (confirmed) score Williams will ever do, and that it's actually a genuinely good piece of music (there's no other film score of the 15 that is doing this type of big orchestra extravaganza save for Oppenheimer)...I think John Williams will have to take his tuxedo out of the closet one more time.
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