The Selzer Poll Posits: Are Republicans About to Make a Big Mistake?

Gov. Nikki Haley with former President Donald Trump

In politics, it's best to take all political pundits/pollsters/prognosticators with a grain of salt.  Most of the figures that are walked around like Nostradamus are, in fact, fallible (just ask Nate Silver).  But while no one's perfect, if you want a proper political deity, you should go to the Des Moines Oracle herself, Ann Selzer.  Selzer, born in Minnesota, but long associated with the Hawkeye State, has been the contrarian that has been proven right more times than you can count.  She correctly predicted Barack Obama's victory in the 2008 Iowa caucuses, as well as Joni Ernst's win in 2014 for Tom Harkin's open Senate seat.  While other pundits were guessing much closer contests, Selzer correctly called Donald Trump's impressive Iowa victory in 2016 & 2020, and showed that Joni Ernst was not giving us a tossup Senate race in 2020 (which most people had guessed).  Selzer is so accurate that when one of her general election polls are coming out, my parents & brother know to stay away from their phones because I will be having a panic attack if the results are not conducive to a good night for the Democrats.

With Iowa shifting rightward, Selzer's polls don't carry the weight they once did because they aren't telling us a lot we don't know (Iowa is to the right of the nation, not the valuable bellwether it once was); if Selzer wanted to move to Nevada or Arizona, I would be willing to chip so we got better polling there.  But she had one important poll in her this year with Nikki Haley seemingly gaining on Donald Trump leading up to tomorrow's (frigid) Iowa caucuses.  Her poll, released yesterday, showed Trump at 48%, just shy of 50% but well ahead of Haley at 20% and Ron DeSantis at 16%.  But it was in the data that Selzer's poll got a lot more interesting, and might say something about the coming general election (and the state of current polling).

Selzer's poll showed that while most of Trump's and DeSantis's voters remain loyal, Haley's supporters are fair-weather Republicans (that pun is intentional-Iowa is experiencing subzero temperatures right now, and it's possible that having less enthusiastic support in Iowa could hurt her 20% share of the vote...a third place finish by Haley would be hell for her chances in New Hampshire), and many of them (according to the survey, 43%) say they'd prefer Joe Biden to Donald Trump in the general election.

It is doubtful that this is true, but it is possible this number is serving as a proxy for something we've seen all year-both parties have a contingency that don't want a rematch.  The media focus has been on Joe Biden (it's hard not to imagine this is because Trump drives ratings) losing the support of his base, but Donald Trump is basically an incumbent in the eyes of most Republicans...his losing a large swath of voters to Haley indicates that a good chunk of the voters he needs to win in November don't want him as their nominee...a bigger share of the voters that will go for one of the challengers to Joe Biden.

Polling legend Ann Selzer

The biggest argument in Haley's favor the entire primary has been that she polls better than Donald Trump against Joe Biden.  This is demonstrably true-Haley would be a stronger general election opponent against Biden.  Not necessarily unbeatable, but the Democrats would be in for a rough election against her as she'd be the heavy favorite.  But Haley hasn't been able to capitalize on that because Trump has polled decently against Biden, and for MAGA voters (the vast majority of Republicans), why pick someone they don't want when it looks like the guy they do want can win on his own?  Haley's electability hasn't helped because most Republicans see the polls and think that they'll win no matter what (it doesn't help her cause that many don't admit that Trump lost in 2020...and as a result they don't realize that Trump needs to pick up 3 states to get the White House).

But if I may play devil's advocate for a second, while Trump is still the (mild) favorite, I do wonder if the media, in their quest to get a rematch and get Trump back into the headlines, may have screwed over the Republicans' larger chances.  You see that in the interviews that Selzer did with Haley's supporters.  One, a former Republican who now leans Democratic in the Trump era, said, "I'm wanting to caucus for the least of the worst" by picking Haley.  The thought process here is simple-this voter (a 37-year-old woman from the Cedar Rapids area, one of the larger urban areas in the state) is winnable for Haley, but not for Trump.

We knew these types of voters exist, but the devil's advocate part here is crucial-what if they're the deciding factor, just like they were in 2020?  Polls this year have shown not so much Trump winning as Biden losing.  Trump rarely polls better than he ended the race in 2020 in crucial states like Arizona, Michigan, & Georgia (probably Trump's easiest path to the White House right now is holding his 2020 victories and picking up these three Biden states), but instead show him doing roughly the same...while Biden is losing on his 2020 numbers.  This is partially because much of the past few months have put Biden in the headlines (particularly given the situation in Gaza).  That won't be possible in 2024, when people realize that we're getting a rematch-Trump can't avoid the spotlight, and he won't want to even if it'd be politically advantageous as Trump loves being the center-of-attention.  Most polling shows people don't want a rematch, and even that they don't think a rematch will happen.  The media has framed the primaries as much more of a horserace than they actually will be (it's likely both Biden & Trump sweep all fifty states this spring in the primaries).  As that happens, it's probable that Biden will start to regain in these states, particularly for Democrats who don't want him as their nominee, but will reluctantly vote for him when he is.  You've started to see that in national polling, with Biden beginning to rebound in national and swing state polling in the past month.

Which brings us back to these voters who are "Haley > Biden > Trump" that Selzer highlighted.  The assumption amongst many (including me) is that Trump has established enough of a lead in MI/GA/AZ that he can win the general election without these types of voters; that's why I'm comfortable calling him the mild favorite at this juncture.  But if Biden continues to gain in polls, these voters, who got him victories in places like Georgia & Arizona in 2020, will become in-play again.  And in the process, the media's push to make Trump viable could be the Republicans' undoing.  There's a not small chance that we're going to see in November a slim Biden victory over Trump...in a race that Nikki Haley would've won.