Chris Christie Leaves...Is this Nikki Haley's Moment?

Govs. Chris Christie (N-NJ) & Nikki Haley (R-SC)

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has dropped out of the Republican Presidential race just days before the early primary states of Iowa & New Hampshire prepare to vote.  Christie, with this campaign, is likely ending his political career.  At one point, he was the shining star of the Republican Party.  He defeated a Democratic incumbent (in New Jersey!) in 2009 when he was elected governor, and was reelected by a landslide in 2013.  His luck ran out in 2016, when his presidential campaign didn't catch fire.  In retrospect, it's pretty clear he ran four years too late; presidential politics is all about finding your moment, and Christie was the sort of Republican (conservative-but-practical, gruff-but-likable) who would've been a good chess move against Barack Obama, not against an open seat.  

But in that 2016 election, he made a calculated move-he decided to align himself with Donald Trump.  Christie, after years as a US Attorney, was by far the most-skilled debater in the 2016 presidential field, and eviscerated Sen. Marco Rubio at a time when Rubio seemed poised as a potential threat to Trump's chances in New Hampshire, the Republican Party starting to rally behind him.  With that blow, Christie got rid of the last roadblock in Trump's campaign.  Many (including me) assumed this would result in Christie being in Trump's presidential cabinet, either as Vice President or as Attorney General, neither of which materialized (though a number of reports have said that Trump wanted Christie as his running-mate, even after he picked Mike Pence).  In the years that followed, this action haunted Christie, who became increasingly disillusioned by Trump.  By the time he was campaigning for the 2024 presidential nomination, he was doing so less as a viable option, and more as a way to feel out just how many Republicans wanted to stay in the party...but clearly hated Trump.

It does not appear likely that Chris Christie will endorse before Iowa or New Hampshire (though as of right now that doesn't appear to be off-the-table, as this is all sort of happening in real time), but it's very clear what Christie does not want-he does not want Donald Trump to get a second term.  Christie is a conservative Republican, but it's pretty clear he's at the Liz Cheney/Adam Kinzinger end of the party at this point, someone who is actually willing to back anyone, including a Democrat, if Trump is the nominee (he hasn't said it, but he's gone beyond a Susan Collins-esque hemming-and-hawing).  The thing is-Christie's dropping out opens a (small) window for another candidate in the race: Nikki Haley.

Haley's campaign is about as well-situated as any to take on Donald Trump, certainly the best-positioned a Republican has been since Rubio going into that debate eight years ago to defeating the former reality TV host.  She is polling well in New Hampshire, and gaining in Iowa; rumor has it that there will be a Des Moines Register poll from legendary pollster Ann Selzer before the Iowa caucuses-know that I will be waiting for it the same way I wait for the Oscar nominations each year given Selzer's reliability.  Her Republican opponents are either dropping out (Christie) or are polling so badly they're becoming nonentities (Ramaswamy, DeSantis).  This is as close to a two-person race as Trump has experienced in Republican politics.

The path for Haley would be simple-right now, polling in Iowa shows her in a closer race for second place against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose presidential campaign is dead but his Iowa campaign isn't.  Haley would need to beat DeSantis, and hold Trump to a non-impressive number (let's say, 50% or less).  That would give her momentum headed into New Hampshire, where she would need to score a surprise outright victory (she is close in polls...she has yet to lead one there against Trump).  Those two would rearrange the Republican chess board, and the next major contest (Nevada is so badly constructed this year I don't know that anyone gains from it) is South Carolina, where Trump is polling very well, but this is Haley's home state.  She can activate much of her old network, and knows the state like the back of her hand (she won it twice).  Also, people like a winner-if Haley starts looking like a viable option, any of Trump's support that's built on sand and not bedrock will shift.

Trump remains the presumed frontrunner, but it's clear based on some of his recent comments going after Haley on substance (attacking her position on the retirement age), that he is nervous.  This is exactly the sort of inside straight hand that Haley would need to get the nomination.  But Trump is still the dominant force in politics, and she has to clear several hurdles.  It's going to be subzero temperatures next week in Iowa, likely impacting turnout...it's hard to tell whether Trump, DeSantis, or Haley is hurt more in that situation, but it's definitely a factor.  Trump also remains insanely popular nationally, and given his poll position (he leads Biden in most swing state polls, though his position appears to have softened in the past 6-7 weeks), Haley can't bludgeon him with the "I'd win and you won't" card even if she's definitely polling better.

Which brings us back to Chris Christie-why isn't he endorsing her?  The reality is that if you asked anyone who the next Republican nominee is going to be, they'd still say Trump.  Haley's odds are still long, and even if she did pull off that inside straight, it'd probably only put her even with the former president, not beating him.  I think Christie is less concerned about Haley being forgiving of Trump's past discretions (I think his main goal here is to make sure that a president who respects America's international alliances like NATO and will honor the rules of law (i.e. she'd concede the election if she lost), not to get rid of every Republican who ever liked Trump)), and more that Haley is 100% going to endorse Trump if she loses, and would be a top option for the vice presidential spot.  Why would he endorse a woman who is probably going to be the face of Trump's campaign for the entire fall, and repeat the mistakes of 2016?  Christie leaving gives her an opening...but I don't think he'll open it wider by endorsing her before she's proven herself.