No Globe? No SAG? No Problem!

This morning we saw the SAG nominations, and with the Globes held this weekend, that means we get to write one of my favorite recurring annual articles on the blog-our annual look at the few performers whose dreams of Oscar glory have seemingly been dashed by not getting in with either of these high-profile precursors...who still could be in for a wonderful night in a few weeks at the Dolby Theater.  Every year since 2006, at least one actor has gotten a nomination for an Oscar without being cited by either the Globes or the SAG Awards, with a much larger number in the past two years:

2022: Brian Tyree Henry, Andrea Riseborough, Judd Hirsch, & Paul Mescal

2021: Penelope Cruz, Jesse Plemons, JK Simmons, Judi Dench, & Jessie Buckley

2020: Paul Raci & LaKeith Stanfield

2019: Florence Pugh

2018: Marina de Tavira & Yalitza Aparicio

2017: Lesley Manville

2016: Michael Shannon

2015: Charlotte Rampling, Tom Hardy, & Mark Ruffalo

2014: Bradley Cooper, Marion Cotillard, & Laura Dern

2013: Jonah Hill

As a general rule, the best way to get another nomination is to get in as a result of your film having heat for either Best Picture or another acting race.  Last year, we saw this with someone like Judd Hirsch, who was starring in a film that was on-track for Best Picture & Actress, and then carried him along with the show.  Last year saw a disproportionately large number of people (Andrea Riseborough, Paul Mescal, & Brian Tyree Henry) who were their films only Oscar nod, which does happen, but this is generally hard to pull off, especially in the ten-wide Best Picture era.  Generally, the new name is someone from a Best Picture nominee that Oscar liked a little bit more than the rest of the season.

I say each year that I'm worried this trend won't continue, but this year I'm especially nervous because of the expansion of the Golden Globes.  This is the first year that the Globes had six nominees for each of the acting races, rather than five.  You can best see how this will hurt this stat by looking at Best Actor in a Drama.   This featured three Oscar frontrunners (Cillian Murphy, Bradley Cooper, & Leonardo DiCaprio) along with three "on the bubble" nominees (Colman Domingo, Andrew Scott, & Barry Keoghan).  In a normal year, one of those "on the bubble" nominees wouldn't have gotten mentioned, and if it had been Scott/Keoghan, would've been in my Top 5 here given the heat off of those films peaking at the right time (Domingo got a Globe nod).  This year, none of them are in the Top 10, and so I had to scrounge a little bit to get a plausible Top 10.  Still, a 14-year streak is going to be tough to beat-one of these names (#1 being the most likely) probably gets on Oscar's radar in two weeks.

Honorable Mention: I'm just going to list a few names that need to be mentioned.  I am still catching up on a few contenders (hence why own personal Top 10 lists haven't been revealed yet), so a couple of performances that I haven't seen include Erika Alexander (American Fiction), Christian Friedel (The Zone of Interest), Aunjanue Ellis (Origin), Jamie Bell (All of Us Strangers), & Juliette Binoche (The Taste of Things).  These all have their champions (and Binoche & Ellis are former nominees, which helps), but without seeing them I don't know if they make sense or even how substantial their roles are...so I'm just naming them for posterity.  Florence Pugh (Oppenheimer), Jesse Plemons (Killers of the Flower Moon), John Magaro (Past Lives), & Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) have large supporting parts in Best Picture contenders, but they've been ignored all season, and save for Magaro, they're all former nominees so if they were going to get in...why not get mentioned by SAG or the Globes?  Lastly, I do wonder if AMPAS will like Ferrari more than most, and Penelope Cruz's surprise SAG inclusion means that Adam Driver (a two-time nominee) deserves a mention in this list even if this is probably a miss for him.

10. Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret.)

For Her: McAdams has received some of the best reviews of her career for this Judy Blume adaptation, and there's a lot of passion surrounding her performance, despite it coming out in April.  She even won a surprise inclusion from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association.  Sometimes underestimated when it comes to what screeners get the "Play" button pressed is whether you can watch a movie with your kids-Margaret is far more "let's all sit in front of the couch" friendly than May December or Saltburn.  She's also a former Oscar nominee-AMPAS has liked her before.

Against Her: The film has no shot in any other categories and it's a coming-of-age movie about a girl getting her period that was released almost a year ago.  No matter how good McAdams may be, that was always going to be hard to get past, especially without some help from something like SAG which is more the audience for this style of film.

9. Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers)

For Him: I mean, he did it last year.  Mescal was able to take a small, family drama last year and ride it to the Oscars, what's to stop him this year?  All of Us Strangers is not necessarily in the Best Picture running, but it does have the kind of heat & interest that would make it a surprise inclusion in the 9th or 10th spot if heat for something that feels more like a "required" nominee (like Maestro) that no one really loves doesn't get in.  Additionally, everyone who sees the movie loves Andrew Scott, which makes him a stealth contender for the competitive fifth Best Actor slot.

Against Him: I haven't seen the movie, but literally any internal competition from Jamie Bell is going to cost him this, as it's already a small film...will Bell split his support?  Additionally, this is a film that Oscar voters aren't required to see-will they get to it, or is it just a move they're still saying "I've heard that's good" about come nominations time.

8. Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest)

For Her: She's having a helluva a year.  Huller didn't get in with SAG, but she managed a Globe nomination for her work in Anatomy of a Fall, which I think will score her her first Oscar nomination in Best Actress.  Weirdly, she's also an option in supporting for Zone of Interest, which like All of Us Strangers is in the hunt for 9th or 10th in the Best Picture field.  Huller's supposedly good, and a significant part here.  Could she get double the love?

Against Her: Unlike a lot of past double nominees (like Scarlett Johansson or Al Pacino) she's not super famous headed into the night, and usually you come armed with all of the precursors if you're going to be cited twice.  It's possible, but I'm assuming on her first go-around AMPAS will think Best Actress is enough.

7. Zac Efron (The Iron Claw)

For Him: Efron checks two of the Academy's favorite boxes.  One, he's a matinee idol transforming himself physically for a role, and two, he's in the middle of something of a comeback, giving his most lauded performance to date after years as a teen idol.  A family drama and a biopic, this is in Oscar's wheelhouse (Mickey Rourke got nominated for a similar film a few years back), and it has a lot of fans.

Against Him: Efron is the sort of contender that the Globes normally would've gone for (not sure if that's because we're in a post-HFPA world or not, but a celebrity like him normally would've been able to sneak in over Andrew Scott).  Will enough people see it...and will enough respond given Efron's otherwise shallow acting resumé (unlike Rourke, Efron didn't spend a decade giving critically-acclaimed, edgy performances before Oscar noticed).

6. Ben Affleck (Air)

For Him: Affleck is a strange beast in Hollywood-someone well-loved by the Academy behind-the scenes (he has Oscars for writing and producing, and directed a Best Picture winner), but who has never been nominated for an Oscar for acting despite matinee idol good looks and appearing in many of his movies.  His latest directorial effort, Air, is a film I think is going to get into Best Picture (I haven't written my final nominations yet, but it'll be on there as my surprise guess unless something bizarre happens with the PGA/DGA/BAFTA citations), and since no film has only gotten a Best Picture nomination since 1943, if it gets in one place, it'll probably get in another.

Against Him: I think that most agree that Affleck, unlike his buddy Matt Damon, is better behind-the-scenes than in front of the camera, and while this is a showy part, there's a more traditional role for the Academy to cite in Air if they feel so inclined.  Also, Best Supporting Actor is already bursting at the seams without adding someone like Affleck into the conversation.

5. Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers)

For Her: Foy is one of the most recognized actresses on television, she's British (the Academy loves British actresses), and she works in a lot of prestige films that have gotten on Oscar's radar (First Man, Women Talking).  Her work in All of Us Strangers as the main character's mother isn't work I've seen yet, but from what I've heard it's strong, scene-stealing stuff, and if the film is peaking at the right time (which it is), like Paul Mescal, I could see her being in the running.

Against Her: At this point, Foy has been turned down by the Academy twice.  Similar to Emily Blunt (who after two decades is finally going to get an Oscar nomination in two weeks for Oppenheimer after basically begging the Academy every year for it), it's possible she's just not their cup of tea?  If she can't get in for a Best Picture nominee, why this?

4. Viola Davis (Air)

For Her: As I mentioned above, there's a more traditional option in Air if AMPAS wants to nominate it for an acting trophy than Ben Affleck, and that's Oscar-winning actress Viola Davis.  Davis gets a showy supporting part as Michael Jordan's mother, plays well off of Matt Damon (whom, it is worth noting, did get a Golden Globe nomination for this film), and we know Oscar loves her.  They also might feel they owe her after she missed last year for an expected nomination for The Woman King.

Against Her: She still has a trophy, so it's not like ignoring her for The Woman King was a major crime.  More importantly, it's possible I'm overestimating Air's strength.  It came out last spring, and hasn't shown up on a lot of year-end lists.  Maybe it's just one of those movies people liked, but doesn't score with Oscar, in which case Davis is a non-entity.

3. Matt Damon (Oppenheimer)

For Him: Our top three contenders I'm going all in on movies that all of the Academy's acting branch will have seen by the time the nominations start, but feature three performers with prominent roles in those films that haven't gotten mention yet.  Damon's lack of a nomination has perplexed me all season.  In a sea of options, he and Downey are the only two supporting actors who are clearly prominent enough in terms of screen-time to stand out from the crowd.  Given his personal popularity (as well as love for Oppenheimer), why isn't he showing up?

Against Him: Damon's problem is twofold.  One, his internal competition, particularly from Robert Downey, Jr. who is going to win this category with Oscar, means that spreading-the-wealth feels like the correct choice (Oppenheimer isn't hurting for love).  Second, the supporting actor race is stacked this year, the strongest contenders and the most quality options of any of the four acting races.  This would feel like a "weak field" filler nomination, not needed for 2023.

2. Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)

For Him: The Holdovers is an acting trio, one that features two people who are surefire nominees (and potential winners): Da'Vine Joy Randolph & Paul Giamatti.  Their counterpart Dominic Sessa, though, has gotten plenty of good notices for his screen debut in The Holdovers.  It's a lead performance that is being passed off as supporting (that always helps), and if you're a fan of the movie, you might just want to put down one actor for each category.

Against Him: He's so young.  This is his first film, and in a category where they tend to nominate longtime veterans (like Willem Dafoe or Mark Ruffalo, both also on the edge for this category), they might want to make him pay his dues.  Plus, given The Holdovers didn't get into Best SAG Cast (usually a prerequisite for a Best Picture nomination), this might be a movie that voters more like than love.

1. America Ferrera (Barbie)

For Her: Everyone loves Barbie.  Even if you aren't a fan of the movie itself, in an industry town that had a lower-than-expected box office last yeaer, everyone knows that Barbie is a movie they should be grateful for.  Ferrera is a longtime character actress who weirdly (despite the large female cast) will be the only Supporting Actress option from the film.  People love her monologue scene in the picture, and she's been pushing the movie hard.  These are all things that usually add up to a surprise inclusion.

Against Her: Unless Jodie Foster or Danielle Brooks fall (both are on shaky, but likely, ground), this is really a fifth slot play against Viola Davis (Air), Julianne Moore (May December), Penelope Cruz (Ferrari), and Rosamund Pike (Saltburn).  None of those are Best Picture nominee locks like Barbie is, but unlike Ferrera, they're all former Oscar nominees/winners who come armed with precursors (save Davis).  Still...I think I'll probably guess Ferrera because her math feels really good in this scenario.