I am doing a final predictions series for the November 8th midterm elections. If you've missed previous articles, they're listed right here: Alabama-Arkansas, California-Hawaii, Idaho-Louisiana, Maine-Montana, Nebraska-North Dakota
(Note: I'll be doing commentary on every race for Governor & Senate regardless of level-of-competitiveness. I'll only do mentions for the House if I assume it'll be competitive in some way-if the House race isn't listed, I'm assuming an easy hold for the incumbent party)
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| Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) |
Governor: Four years after a relatively close race, and 16 years after he suffered a massive Senate loss, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is cruising to the easiest reelection of his career, based almost exclusively around how he handled the Covid Crisis. At 75-years-old, it seems probable this is the final election of DeWine's decades-long Buckeye State career.
Senate: Arguably one of the most intriguing races of the cycle, the battle for the Senate in Ohio is between author JD Vance (R) and longtime Rep. Tim Ryan (D). If you look at this race on its surface, the campaigns couldn't be more different. Ryan has run the best race of literally any candidate (on either side of the aisle) for the Senate this cycle, a flawlessly-rendered campaign that if he had done it in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, he'd be measuring drapes in the Russell Building already. Vance, on the other hand, has run a pathetic campaign. A lackluster primary that was only saved by an endorsement from Donald Trump, his fundraising has been atrocious, his retail politicking a joke, and even his campaign commercials have been heavily criticized. It's entirely possible that Vance gets outrun by DeWine by 15-20 points this cycle, which is near unheard of in 2022. Polling shows a tight race, maybe a slight edge to Vance based on the cycle's dynamics & the fact that Ohio is not the swing state it once was (again, if this was 2012 Ryan would have this in the bag). I'm going to predict Vance as I've been burned by Ohio too much in the past 6 years, and I'm not willing to take a risk here, but I'm not saying this with confidence-if there's an upset on Election Night that rocks DC (in the Democrats' favor) it's probably that Ryan pulled off the miracle here.
House: Ohio lost a seat in 2022, and while the state is pretty heavily gerrymandered for the Republicans (one could argue illegally given the fact that the State Supreme Court basically tried to force them to redraw but they found a loophole), there are three close races. The most important is in the 9th district, a seat that went for Donald Trump by nearly 3-points, but where the Republicans have nominated a QAnon conspirator who was at the Capitol for the January 6th attacks (though it does not appear entered the building and therefore was, as far as we know, just a member of the rally) who has repeatedly lied about his military record. Majewski is running against Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D), whom if she won would become the longest-serving woman in the history of Congress. Republicans have abandoned Majewski & Kaptur's decades of experience means she's 10:1 in cash-on-hand, and while the conservative tilt of this district could let Majewski win, I doubt it-I think Kaptur wins, Republicans get a better nominee in 2024, and she'll retire with her longest-serving member title intact. Two other seats are easier lifts-on-paper for Democrats: the 1st (which went for Biden by nearly 9-points) and the 13th (which went for Biden by just under 3-points). Both of these seats lean Republican, thanks in part to much better candidate recruitment. The 1st district has battle-tested incumbent Rep. Stave Chabot (R) who has run a better campaign than Cincinnati City Councilman Greg Landsman, while the 13th is a more even-handed race but also much more marginal with former Miss Ohio Madison Gesiotto Gilbert facing State House Minority Leader Emilia Sykes. Both of these races could flip and (I haven't said this a lot, but here it's true) if I'm underestimating House Democrats Landsman or Sykes might win thanks to partisanship, but I'm going to guess the R's keep both. As a result (due to a lost seat in redistricting) this is D-1.
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| State Superintendent Joy Hofmeister (D-OK) |
Governor: If New Mexico is the sleeper governor's race that the Republicans could score in a great night, Oklahoma is the white whale for the DGA this cycle. Gov. Kevin Stitt is deeply unpopular, largely due to the policies of his Education Secretary Ryan Walters, who has gutted schools in the state & is running for State Superintendent. Education policy is centerstage here, and so current State Superintendent Joy Hofmeister, who switched parties last year based largely on Stitt's cuts to public education. Both Stitt & Walters are vulnerable this year (Walters is running against Jena Nelson, a middle school English teacher), but it's 2022 in one of the reddest states in the nation. I'm definitely watching both of these races, but I'm not holding my breath.
Senate: Due to the resignation of Sen. Jim Inhofe (R), both of Oklahoma's Senate seats are up for reelection this year. Both will go red, but I am curious to see the margins in each race. On one side you have an easy reelection for Sen. Jim Lankford (R), while on the other side you have an open seat race between sitting Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R) and former Rep. Kendra Horn (D). Kendra Horn (both Democrats have the last name Horn, though no relation), is the best candidate Democrats have run for Senate in at least a decade, and has run a decent campaign (even if it's one she's sure to lose), so I'm curious to see what that's worth in terms of her margins to the Lankford race.
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| House Minority Leader Christine Drazan (R-OR) |
Governor: One of the "Coin Toss 5" governor's races this cycle (along with Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, & Wisconsin), Oregon is by far the bluest state of the bunch. Gov. Kate Brown (D) is deeply unpopular in the state, and that has reflected on State House Speaker Tina Kotek, who is running against House Minority Leader Christine Drazan (they actually served against each other, so in some ways this would be the equivalent of Pelosi & McCarthy squaring off for the White House). Drazan has led for most of the fall thanks to a third party bid by Independent State Sen. Betsy Johnson, formerly a moderate Democrat. Johnson has stolen enough moderate or disaffected Democrats to put Kotek in trouble, but as we approach November 8th, Johnson's support has cratered (as is oftentimes the case for third party candidates who don't have a chance at a win). This has pulled the race into a tie, and it's clear at this point that Kotek has the momentum. I had originally predicted that the Republicans would win here-it's clear that Kate Brown is widely disliked, Johnson was stealing from Kotek's votes, and the crime rates in Portland are going to be a problem for the Democrats if they can't find a way to get around them in the next decade. But it's also obvious that Drazan is scaring disaffected Democrats, and I think that leads to Kotek getting a win.
Senate: That uncertainty doesn't extend to the Senate race, where Ron Wyden (D) will easily get another term, extending his time in Congress to nearly fifty years if he serves to the end of his next term.
House: Kotek's biggest claim to fame before her poorly-run campaign for Governor was pulling off a seemingly successful gerrymander for the House. Oregon gained a seat this cycle, and despite some dealings with Republicans to have a more fair-minded map, Kotek was able to pass an aggressive gerrymander that should've shored up the 5th district while winning the Democrats the 6th. Neither of those two things seem assured now, and Democrats also appear to have trouble in the 4th district. Democrats have rushed in to save State Rep. Andrea Salinas in the newly-drawn 6th district, and while I think she'll win at the end of the day, it's clear the Democrats have a real problem on their hands with Portland's rising crime rates which most Republicans in the state have made into a tangible issue (crime rates in general appear to be a weak point for Democrats, but Portland's 200% increase in homicides since 2019 is one of the largest in the country) that they'll have to fix in coming elections or risk the state going purple. I also think that State Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle (4th) will also win, but that means that the 5th district (the only one that Biden won by less than 10-points) is going to go red. There will be a lot of handwringing, in my opinion correctly, that Democrats badly misjudged their position here by throwing out moderate Rep. Kurt Schrader in the primary for progressive Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D) (perhaps we should rethink challenging from the left in remotely marginal districts going forward if McLeod-Skinner can't win), but I think Republican Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R) takes a checkmark due to the Democrats' mistakes. R+1
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| Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D-PA) |
Governor: No contest in the nation has so totally decimated a winnable race for the Republicans more than the Pennsylvania governor's battle. Despite the Keystone State's proclivity to swap the governor's mansion every eight years, Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D) is cruising to a first term in the race against State Sen. Doug Mastriano (R), who has been all but abandoned by the national Republican Party. This is due to Mastriano's political beliefs, as he's an ardent supporter of both QAnon and 9/11 conspiracy theories, and also attended the January 6th riots at the Capitol. Shapiro deserves credit for running a good campaign, but the Republicans gifted him this race when they nominated Mastriano.
Senate: And now we get to the single race I am most dreading giving a rating to of all of the seats. Both sides have royally botched this race, though in the Democrats' case this was entirely outside their control. Just days before the primary that he was cruising to win, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman suffered a severe stroke that (by his own admission) nearly killed him. Fetterman's campaign for the past few months has suffered greatly during his recovery. While they've had a robust digital strategy and Fetterman's wife Gisele has proven herself to be a truly gifted public speaker & politician (the Democratic Party should see if she's interested in running for office at some point), it's hurt the campaign that he hasn't been able to pound-the-pavement the way you normally would in a race like this, which resulted in a widely-panned debate performance where Fetterman struggled against his opponent, TV personality Dr. Mehmet Oz (R). Fetterman's saving grace has been Oz has run one of the worst campaigns in recent memory, showing himself to be an out-of-touch, out-of-town (the Fetterman campaign has made a big deal of him being from New Jersey) candidate that has given him mile-high negatives, and until the debate, kept the race out-of-reach. Since the debate, Oz has rebounded (though it's worth noting not a lot of high quality polling has come out of the contest), and the question here is who wins in a race of two bad campaigns. I will be honest, up until Friday, I had Oz predicted to be an upset here, but a combination of Fetterman leading in pretty much every nonpartisan poll, Oprah Winfrey's surprise endorsement of Fetterman (I assumed she'd stay out of it given her longtime professional collaboration with Oz) and Oz suffering from Mastriano's bizarre hatred of early voting (which is allowing Fetterman to get an early lead that could be critical if this is close), has my gut & head agreeing on this race. I cautiously say Fetterman gets D+1, but I do not say it confidently.
House: Pennsylvania has a large number of House seats that could swing, so let's run through them. The people saying Summer Lee (D) might lose because her GOP opponent is named Mike Doyle (which is the name of the Democratic congressman she's replacing) are overreacting, and she'll win (though that was a neat trick for the Republicans to try & pull). Democrats will take Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick's seat if he ever retires, but he'll win his Biden seat easily if he can get victories in 2018 & 2020. The three races that are genuinely close are the 7th, 8th, & 17th, all currently held by Democrats. Of the three, weirdly the one I feel the most confident in is the 8th, the only one that Donald Trump won. Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) appears to be the inverse of Fitzpatrick, and he probably wins. The 7th & 17th went for Biden by 0.6 and 6.0-points, respectively. I think the 7th is a goner for Rep. Susan Wild (D), who is facing a rematch against Lehigh County Commissioner Lisa Scheller. Wild could win (this is a Biden seat), but a win by her would imply a plausible path for the Democrats to keep their majority, and I don't buy that right now. I'm also going to guess the Republican for the 17th district. Had Rep. Conor Lamb ran for reelection rather than making an ill-advised campaign for Senate, Democrats would've held this seat, but attorney Chris Deluzio (D) has not run the kind of campaign that I think can take on a Republican headwind, and this seat goes to Town Commissioner Jeremy Shaffer (R). With Pennsylvania losing one seat already, this is a brutal D-2/R+1 situation for the left.
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| Mayor Allen Fung (R-RI) |
Governor: Incumbent Gov. Dan McKee is facing voters for the top job for the first time (he became governor when President Biden appointed Gina Raimondo to his cabinet), and while he's quite unpopular, that doesn't seem to be able to help his Republican opponent Ashley Kalus in the polls. McKee wins, and his low approval ratings likely stick as is the lot of a New England Democratic governor.
House: Similar to Conor Lamb, had Democrats kept their incumbent Rep. Jim Langevin (D) in this seat, we'd be seeing an easy reelection battle in the 2nd district. However, Republicans have arguably their best candidate in Cranston Mayor Allen Fung (universally known in the district thanks to his campaigns for governor), who is running against a lackluster campaign from State Treasurer Seth Magaziner (D). Polls have shown Fung in the lead but not approaching 50%, and in many ways this is kind of what you've seen from Tim Ryan in Ohio. However, if we were looking at a Democratic midterm I'd be predicting Ryan for the upset, and I'm going to do that here-I think Fung wins a single term in Congress, but the blue nature of this seat (it went to Biden by 13-points) makes him a heavy pickup target in 2024. R+1
South Carolina
Governor: Joe Cunningham, like Kendra Horn above, lost a 2020 House race as an incumbent and now is making a longshot bid for statewide office. It won't pay off, however, and Gov. Henry McMaster (R) gets another term.
Senate: Sen. Tim Scott (R) also gets another term, and sets up an almost certain bid for President (that will more-likely lead to him being a heavy favorite for the VP slot in 2024 for the Republicans, which is what he's really going for).
South Dakota
Governor: Despite some polls at one point showing incumbent-Gov. Kristi Noem (R) vulnerable (similar to Stitt, she's not well-liked in her deep red state), the Republican has rebounded and should cruise to a second term.
Senate: Sen. John Thune at least has a Democratic opponent this cycle (in the last midterms he ran in the Democrats couldn't even manage that), but he'll win another term, and probably become Republican Senate Leader at some point in the next six years.
Tennessee
Governor: Gov. Bill Lee will cruise to another term in one of the reddest states in the nation.
House: There are no competitive races in Tennessee, but thanks to gerrymandering that's because Rep. Jim Cooper's (D) seat was sliced into pieces to get the Republicans another pickup. This means Davidson County (home to Nashville) will be represented by only Republicans despite going for Joe Biden by over 100,000 since it is now split into three congressional districts, with Nashville literally cut in half. It's almost certainly the grossest and most undemocratic gerrymander in the country, and I have to say SHAME on Joe Manchin & Kyrsten Sinema for letting it happen & not overturning the filibuster to prevent this abuse of power. R+1
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| Rep. Mayra Flores (R-TX) |
Governor: Gov. Greg Abbott has spent the past four years causing literal catastrophes to befall Texas & doing nothing, particularly watching a power outage cause millions in property damage & cost people their lives. Texas, though, seems impervious to change and will reelect him despite the Democrats having an obviously good alternative in former Rep. Beto O'Rourke, who with a third loss in as many cycles, will watch his meteoric career end with this loss.
House: While Tennessee has, in my opinion, the most heinous gerrymander in the country (since it completely disenfranchises one of the state's largest commerce areas for political gain), Texas's gerrymander is not far off of the list of ruthless gerrymanders in the Republicans' favor. Unlike Tennessee, which I think holds for the remainder of the decade, Texas's will be risky by decade's end if the massive suburban areas around Houston, Dallas, & Austin continue to shift blue. But in 2022, this is probably the state that gets the GOP their House majority. There are only three competitive seats: the 15th, which went for Trump and the 28th & 34th, which went for Biden. All three are in southern Texas, which unlike the metropolitan areas is shifting fast to the right. I think the 15th only goes blue in a good cycle for Democrats at this point, and while I think Rep. Henry Cuellar's (D) personal popularity in the 28th keeps him afloat (if he retires, this seat goes red as I predict Biden will struggle to win it again in 2024), I'm going to do something I didn't expect to do when I started today and predict Rep. Mayra Flores (R) to beat Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D). This shouldn't be competitive, and maybe I'm drinking too much Red Wave Koolaid today, but Gonzalez has run an abysmal campaign and Flores is clearly a talent. This district went to Biden by almost 16-points, so I totally own that this is an upset, but I'm thinking that one of only two member vs. member general elections (the other is in Florida) goes to the Republicans here. Proving how effective the Texas gerrymander is, this state went to Trump by only 5-points, but Republicans will end up with 14 more House seats for an R+2 result.
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