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| Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) |
Last night had to have been one of the best nights of Joe Biden's life. Not only did Biden carry forward his campaign from South Carolina into other Southern states, with wins in North Carolina, Tennessee, & Alabama, but he expanded the map. Bernie Sanders, for the first time this cycle, lost a state that he won in 2016, and it happened three times (Minnesota, Oklahoma, and Maine). This is a big deal because one of the biggest arguments for Sanders was that he had a hold on pretty much the entire map other than the South, but a state like Minnesota is an alarm-there are states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska that have similar demographics that Sanders also won last time. And let's remember-Bernie didn't win last time-he needs to gain states, not lose them, and last night the only state he took from Hillary was California, and based on preliminary numbers, his win here wasn't big enough to make up for Biden stomping through the South.
The map also poses some challenges for Sanders if it expands because without California, there's not an enormous number of states left that Sanders would be considered a strong favorite. Washington is arguably the largest, but it doesn't compare to Biden, who has both Georgia & Florida left in the South, and with his current momentum, he might be able to shut out Sanders in a place like Mississippi (with the highest African-American population in the country). If western Virginia is any indication, Biden might also be able to do well in Appalachia, putting Pennsylvania, West Virginia (which Bernie famously won in 2016), and Ohio in his reach. At some point Sanders needs to find a way to buck Biden, and if there's one thing that Sanders has proven in his five years in the national spotlight, it's that he's not great at change. Biden's embrace of the big tent strategy appears to be working, though it's too soon to assume he will be the nominee as there are a lot of delegates and variables still left in the race.
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| Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) |
One of the biggest post-Super Tuesday announcements was that Mayor Mike Bloomberg has dropped out of the race and gotten behind Biden. This is a huge deal, as it essentially closes down the "moderate" lane of the primary to just Biden. Bloomberg's exit should largely benefit the former vice president (at least that's the conventional wisdom), and perhaps most importantly, his delegates probably come over to Biden. This isn't guaranteed, but it's largely assumed that the vast majority of his delegates (and Klobuchar's & Buttigieg's) will vote for Biden because the candidate they were loyal to has endorsed him. This isn't guaranteed, but it's worth remembering when it comes to delegate math that there's roughly 100 delegates that Biden might be able to tap into if he needs.
The liberal lane now is now down to Sanders & Warren (technically Rep. Tulsi Gabbard is still running, but has no chance at the nomination, though she now does have a pair of delegates she could give to the Sanders campaign, as would be expected since she seems to prefer Sanders to Biden). Warren has stated that she's reconsidering the campaign, and honestly has very little chance at the nomination. The question is not whether or not she'll eventually drop out, but when at this point, and what she does. Warren's politics more closely reflect Sanders, but she's also one of the few people that would be considered a favorite to run with either Biden or Sanders, and by staying neutral she could also use her delegates if it's a particularly close convention to secure a spot on the ticket. There's also the small fact that Warren's campaign has endured obsessive attacks from the Sanders campaign in the past week, with the latter blaming the former for their defeat. Warren's unlikely to take this too personally (she's an experienced politician), but they've offered little incentive for her to come to their side, and it's not entirely certain that her followers will go uniformly to Sanders. Her dropping out comes with risks for the Sanders' campaign as well as potential gains.
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| Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) |
One of the bigger losses for the Sanders/AOC wing of the party last night was not the Sanders' campaign itself, but a Texas House primary. As we discussed yesterday, progressives had been hopeful that they could beat one of the last anti-choice Democrats in the caucus, Henry Cuellar, but progressive activist Jessica Cisneros came up just short yesterday. Cisneros had the backing of Sanders, Warren, Ocasio-Cortez, and several prominent PAC's, including Emily's List & Planned Parenthood-she was a well-funded challenger, and Cuellar was one of the most likely incumbents to lose this cycle. Combined with Kay Granger stomping to an easy win in Texas (thanks to strong support from President Trump), this year is lending a lot of strength to the idea of incumbents not being vulnerable, despite campaigns from people like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez & Ayanna Pressley gaining lots of press last cycle.
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| Attorney General Jeff Sessions (R-AL) |
In Alabama, former Attorney General Jeff Sessions (R) had a win, but it's one that might be short-lived. Sessions, despite having represented Alabama for 22 years in the Senate prior to his time at the Justice Department, was not able to win 50% of the vote in Alabama to avoid a runoff, instead was forced into a contest against former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville. Donald Trump, who has made no secret of his disdain for Sessions, tweeted this morning, blaming Sessions' lack of a full victory on his time in charge of the Justice Department, and for recusing himself during the Mueller investigation. While Trump has stopped short of endorsing Tuberville, it seems inevitable that he'll appear with him in Alabama, and considering the blood red nature of the state (and the party's devotion to Trump), I'd assume that Sessions would be a heavy underdog in his contest to take on Doug Jones, not even making it out of the primary. It seems Sessions assumed that the state loved him and his decades serving it more than Trump, but that is clearly not the case, and it will add a pretty pathetic end to his career in a few weeks.
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| State Sen. Cal Cunningham |
5. Democrats Target Gains in North Carolina
North Carolina was the other major state with congressional elections last night, and overall the Democrats have to be feeling pretty strong. Despite the Republican Party spending millions to prop up one of his opponents, former State Sen. Cal Cunningham easily avoided a runoff, and will now take on Sen. Thom Tillis in the Tar Heel State. Cunningham had a poll recently from NBC News that showed him up by five over Tillis, a huge victory. If Biden can win the state (he showed staggering strength there yesterday, though primary results do not necessarily correlate with the general), it would only help Cunningham more. Most pundits (myself included) think that North Carolina will be the state that decides who will control the majority of the Senate, so the hopes of millions of Democrats lie now in a little known state senator who has so far run an impressive campaign.
Two other candidates basically started off what Nancy Pelosi hopes will be a trend this cycle-gains in the House. While the general election will not be until November, thanks to mid-decade redistricting, the Democrats are assured a net gain of two seats in North Carolina, and the two nominees they're sending forward are familiar names. Former State Rep. Deborah Ross was the Democratic nominee for the Senate in 2016, and was considered a potential candidate against Tillis before she decided to run for this open seat, and will surely be joining the Democrats in DC this time next year. The same could be said for Kathy Manning, who ran a close race against Rep. Ted Budd in 2018, and will join him next year from a much bluer district. Manning & Ross's likely wins mean that the Republicans need to gain not 19 seats, but instead 21 from the Democrats (or win Justin Amash's seat). Manning & Ross also get added to an increasingly robust list of Democrats that are sitting on the party's bench for the 2022 Senate and 2024 Governor's races.
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