What Steve Bullock & Collin Peterson's Runs REALLY Mean

Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT)

I know we're a couple days behind the Wednesday OVP Ballot (you'll get to weigh in on Adapted Screenplay this weekend, and I'll be back on track next week when we don't have Super Tuesday to contend with), but I wanted to weigh in a little bit on the other major political news of the week, that Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT) appears poised to run for the US Senate despite multiple protestations that he would not pursue the seat currently held by Republican incumbent Steve Daines.  Bullock, while not officially in (the filing deadline is Monday, so he doesn't have much time to get into the race, though sources seem to be relatively confident that he will be entering the race), would be an enormous asset to the Democratic Party.  He is the only candidate in the right-leaning state that would be able to give Daines a competitive contest, and were he to win, he'd be an enormous help to Chuck Schumer's goal of gaining back the Senate next week, arguably the biggest lift for Democrats trying to gain full control in DC in 2021. 

But what I want to talk about today is what Bullock's decision means.  Bullock has repeatedly stated this year that he won't run.  He ran for president, when figures across the public spectrum were basically begging him to run against Daines, and he has point blank refused to consider the contest.  In recent days, he has met with Schumer and President Obama about the run, and while I think they probably helped the cause, if Bullock truly does run, I think the main culprit for the run is less a change-of-heart and more excitement about Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee.  And that makes me excited.

It's worth noting that Bullock isn't the only candidate that has made a last minute change to run since Biden romped to victory on Super Tuesday.  Just this morning, Minnesota Rep. Collin Peterson (D), one of the final incumbents to be considering a run for reelection, announced that he would pursue another term.  Peterson represents the most conservative district in the country currently held by a Democrat, and is basically the only person who could dream of holding it, similar to Bullock.  His decision seems to have been timed with Biden's rise not only on Super Tuesday, but in predictions' markets as the probable Democratic nominee (I think the markets are getting a bit presumptive, but it's clear Biden is in the driver's seat rather than Sen. Bernie Sanders). 

Rep. Collin Peterson (D-MN)

Bullock and Peterson gravitating toward Biden underlines what I have long talked about as one of the hallmarks of a Biden candidacy-coattails.  Joe Biden is not the biggest policy wonk in the Democratic race (Elizabeth Warren, looking at you), nor is he necessarily the most inspiring (Bernie Sanders' supporters seem the most smitten with him compared to other candidacies, though Warren & Andrew Yang also ignite passions).  He is the most qualified, but it's not like the multiple senators and governors he faced in this contest couldn't handle the White House.  No-Biden's best strength is that he's a generic Democrat.  Someone who has largely avoided scandal, and whose scandals are usually endearing flubs rather than more concrete escapades, and as a result he's someone that will be easy for Democrats in purple & red states to run with in a way that Bernie Sanders was never going to be.  Biden is by no means a guarantee to win the White House, but he's also someone who's relatively innocuous, and gives Democrats arguably their best chance of winning-by making the contest not "Bernie vs. Trump" but "Trump vs. No-More-Trump."  This is why you've seen a number of former Republicans getting out for Biden-he's a candidate who is palatable to them in a way that Sanders was never going to be.  And this is why you have Bullock & Peterson running for office.

Because these two men wouldn't run if they didn't think they could win.  And if they do think they can win, then that bodes well for other candidates in similar situations.  I'd wager, for example, that Peterson is just as probable as other representatives like Kendra Horn, Antonio Delgado, and Jared Golden to get another term.  His indicating that Biden will help gives us a pretty sturdy bridge to assume that Biden will help these other Democrats in red territories.  Conversely, Bullock's odds of winning are roughly on-par with that of Democrats like Cal Cunningham, Theresa Greenfield, Barbara Bollier, & MJ Hegar.  If Bullock thinks he can pull off the upset in Montana, it's not too much of a stretch to assume that these other candidates can win with Biden on the ticket.

And with those wins, comes true change.  Steve Bullock's winning would be enormous for him personally-he'd quickly join people like Joe Manchin & Kyrsten Sinema as senators you're basically required to get the "thumbs up" from to get a bill passed.  But the more "Steve Bullock's" and "Collin Peterson's" that a (theoretical) President Biden could get across the finish line, the more likely it is that the legislation coming across his desk will be progressive, meaningful, and frequent.  A Democratic-controlled Senate, House, and White House will certainly pass health care reform, immigration reform, climate change reform, and a number of other progressive reforms.  And the more often you can replace a Steve Daines (a certain "no" vote on all of these) with a Steve Bullock (a more likely 'yes" vote on most of these, even if he needs his own two cents added in), the better off you are.  They might not be as outstanding as what Bernie Sanders has promised on the campaign trail, but they will be real in a way that Sanders couldn't deliver.  Because make-no-mistake-you can't get to a Senate and House majority without a few people that look like Steve Bullock & Collin Peterson.  And if Biden is able to bring them into the fight for control of Congress, that makes it more likely we can hit that majority.