It might shock you to hear if you've been hiding under a rock, but there's currently a presidential primary going on for the Democrats. What might actually be eyebrow-raising, or at least is under-reported, is that there a plethora of a congressional primaries that are being waged across the country with extremely meaningful outcomes, a number of which pit incumbent legislators against members of their own parties. Today I thought it'd be fun to take a look at these, and in particular the eight races that appear (to me) to be the most likely to have an incumbent lose election to a member of his or her own party.
I have decided to list these alphabetically after considering ranking them. We are just too far out (with races like those in Massachusetts & New York still getting settled), to call one of these the "most" competitive. Rest assured, though, that none of these people should be resting on their laurels and are in tough fights for their seats.
Georgia Senate
The Incumbent: Kelly Loeffler (R), who just recently was appointed to the seat after the resignation of Sen. Johnny Isakson.
The Challenger(s): Rep. Doug Collins, a hard-right conservative in the state who has extensive ties to President Donald Trump (he's one of his biggest champions in the House).
Why the Race: This one's easy, and I almost didn't include it since Loeffler is only an appointed incumbent, but it bares repeating. Loeffler is a longtime businesswoman (she made a fortune in Bitcoin) who seems attractive to Republicans (because with $500 million between she and her husband, they can self-fund), but also who comes with the sorts of bipartisan ties that are basically required of someone at her financial level. Loeffler has given to her now-Senate colleague Debbie Stabenow (D), for example, in past campaigns, and her husband gave to both Georgia Rep. David Scott (D) and even Hillary Clinton's 2008 presidential campaign. This is easy fodder for Collins, who, while not necessarily getting the endorsement of President Trump, seems likely to be able to stave off an endorsement of Loeffler. This is a jungle primary, so it's possible both candidates advance to the general (unless the Democrats can winnow down their field a bit), or it's possible Collins or Loeffler gains the upper-hand in November, but it's definitely one of the most vulnerable races for an incumbent this cycle.
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| Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) |
The Incumbent: Kelly Loeffler (R), who just recently was appointed to the seat after the resignation of Sen. Johnny Isakson.
The Challenger(s): Rep. Doug Collins, a hard-right conservative in the state who has extensive ties to President Donald Trump (he's one of his biggest champions in the House).
Why the Race: This one's easy, and I almost didn't include it since Loeffler is only an appointed incumbent, but it bares repeating. Loeffler is a longtime businesswoman (she made a fortune in Bitcoin) who seems attractive to Republicans (because with $500 million between she and her husband, they can self-fund), but also who comes with the sorts of bipartisan ties that are basically required of someone at her financial level. Loeffler has given to her now-Senate colleague Debbie Stabenow (D), for example, in past campaigns, and her husband gave to both Georgia Rep. David Scott (D) and even Hillary Clinton's 2008 presidential campaign. This is easy fodder for Collins, who, while not necessarily getting the endorsement of President Trump, seems likely to be able to stave off an endorsement of Loeffler. This is a jungle primary, so it's possible both candidates advance to the general (unless the Democrats can winnow down their field a bit), or it's possible Collins or Loeffler gains the upper-hand in November, but it's definitely one of the most vulnerable races for an incumbent this cycle.
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| Marie Newman (D-IL) |
Illinois-3
The Incumbent: Dan Lipinski, a conservative Democrat who has been in Congress since 2005.
The Challenger(s): The primary one is Marie Newman, who ran against Lipinski in 2018, but there is also local community activist Rush Darwish and frequent candidate Charles Hughes.
Why the Race: Lipinski is an anomaly in the Democratic Party. He's anti-choice, anti-gay marriage, and is frequently a relic of an old cronyism in the Illinois Democratic Party that has, in recent years, started to evaporate (or at least get pushed further into the backrooms). In 2018, he nearly lost his primary against Marie Newman, a marketing consultant, winning by less than 3000 votes. This year, Newman is back, and in fuller force, with Emily's List and a number of high profile Democrats (including Elizabeth Warren, Kirsten Gillibrand, Bernie Sanders, and Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot) all getting behind her campaign. I'd say Lipinski was a goner were it not for Darwish & Hughes, who may not win many votes, but could siphon precious anti-Lipinski support that Newman needs to win (he still has a sizable base in the district). The general election isn't competitive (Hillary won here by 15-points), but Newman's entire political career is resting on winning this race. If she doesn't, it's hard to see her getting another shot at Lipinski, and redistricting could make this a completely different ballgame against the incumbent in 2022.
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| Rep. Steve King (R-IA) |
Iowa-4
The Incumbent: Controversial Republican Rep. Steve King, who has held office since 2003
The Challenger(s): A few prominent Republicans are running, chief among them State Sen. Randy Feenstra
Why the Race: King is arguably the biggest pariah in Congress right now. The Iowa congressman in January of 2019 was stripped of all of his committee assignments after widespread condemnation of remarks he made that seemingly supported white supremacy. King's history of racist comments are decades long (so it's a bit eyebrow-raising it took until 2019 to go after them), but despite having virtually no power in Congress (he can vote in all floor votes, but has no say in committee where most of the power & work is done in the House), he's still running for another term. Feenstra is a solid candidate, and would remove an embarrassing member of the House GOP, but there's already three other candidates in the race to take out King, and could be more. Feenstra could probably beat King one-on-one, but there's at least some base that won't move away from King here-it's likely below 50%, but if it's not much lower Feenstra is going to miss his opportunity even against a toothless incumbent.
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| Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA) |
Massachusetts Senate
The Incumbent: Ed Markey, a second-term Democratic senator who has spent decades on Capitol Hill (initially in the House)
The Challenger(s): Rep. Joe Kennedy III, a four-term incumbent whose main claim-to-fame is his family name, as he's the grandson of former US Sen. Robert Kennedy and the grand-nephew of former President Kennedy.
Why the Race: Honestly, I don't know. I've talked about this race in the past, and the best I can tell is that Kennedy is running against Markey simply because he thinks Markey is "too old" to still be able to represent his constituents. This seems not just a gross description, but an inaccurate one. Markey is deeply relevant on Capitol Hill, and in fact was the chief Senate sponsor of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's Green New Deal. Were it not for his last name, one would assume that Kennedy would be considerably behind, but recent polling has shown him with a significant advantage over the incumbent, so Markey has work to do to prove that he's more valuable to the state than a man who brings a famous name to the conversation, if little else in terms of substantive legislative achievement.
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| Rep. Lori Trahan (D-MA) |
Massachusetts-3
The Incumbent: Rep. Lori Trahan, a first-term Democratic incumbent
The Challenger(s): Dan Koh, a town selectman who lost to Trahan in 2018 in the primary by just 122 votes.
Why the Race: Trahan won a very, very tight race in 2018 against Koh. Not only did she only win by 122 votes, but she only got 21.6% of the vote since there were a dozen candidates in the contest. Since then, Trahan's first term has been marred in scandal, and she's currently being investigated by the House Ethics Committee for violating campaign finance laws in 2018. Koh is (currently) the only candidate in the race, which should help him, but he's gone back-and-forth on running (likely wanting confirmation that Trahan is guilty to help his case), and in the meantime Trahan has been stockpiling cash awaiting a potentially bloody primary. This should be competitive, but I wonder if Trahan will be able to beat back accusations against her campaign as long it's mostly smoke and not fire. Still, her middling margin in 2018 and Koh's presence as a high-profile challenger means she stays on this list.
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| Rep. Yvette Clarke (D-NY) |
New York-9
The Incumbent: Democratic Rep. Yvette Clarke, who has served in Congress since 2007.
The Challenger(s): Two stand out-one, Adam Bunkeddeko, a Brookyln Coummunity Board member who ran against Clarke in 2018, and Chaim Deutsch, a famously homophobic NYC Councilman.
Why the Race: Lost in the whole Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez hammering Joe Crowley thing in 2018 was that Yvette Clarke also almost lost out-of-nowhere. Clarke is prepared this cycle, but appetite in communities around New York to kick out old members appear strong, and her best best (like that of King & Lipinski) is to split the vote, particularly considering Bunkeddeko got that slim margin against Clarke in a one-on-one race. Even if Deutsch is going to be a questionable candidate for a left-leaning district, his presence might hurt any anti-Clarke sentiment, and if he does well, the local Democrats may rally around the incumbent to ensure a progressive makes it through, even if she's not a "new" progressive.
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| Rep. Kay Granger (R-TX) |
The Incumbent: Kay Granger, a longtime (since 1997) member of the House GOP who is currently the Ranking Member on the House Appropriations Committee.
The Challenger(s): Chris Putnam, a former Colleyville City Councilman
Why the Race: Granger is hardly what a typical person would refer to as a "liberal Republican," (she has voted with President Trump 97% of the time and has already endorsed his reelection bid), but that's exactly where Putnam is going against her. Particularly Granger is getting attacked for her son's involvement in a failed (federally-funded) infrastructure project called Panther Island (which has seen a troubled history in Fort Worth), and for supposedly not being pro-life enough, particularly since she won't sign onto Steve King's Heartbeat Protection Bill. This feels disingenuous, though, as Granger's evolution to being completely pro-life happened at least ten years ago, but it might work. The stench of scandal with the Panther Island project combined with even a hint of not being hard right enough in a district this red could be the end of a very long career for Granger.
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| Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) |
The Incumbent: Rep. Henry Cuellar, a conservative Democratic congressman, particularly on abortion, who has been in the House since 2005
The Challenger(s): Jessica Cisneros, an immigration attorney and progressive backed by the Justice Democrats
Why the Race: I initially wondered if the Justice Democrats would simply start going after any Democrat who'd been in office for a while, regardless of their politics (Diana DeGette, for example, was someone who looked like she'd be in for a tough primary earlier this year despite being a textbook liberal). But they seem to have set their sights on two of the last anti-choice Democrats in the party, and two that represent districts Hillary Clinton won. Like Marie Newman up-top, Cisneros is making abortion a key part of her campaign against Cuellar, but unlike Newman, she has the race to herself. She comes armed with endorsements from Julian Castro, Elizabeth Warren, & Bernie Sanders, and has raised over $1 million. Cuellar isn't as obviously vulnerable as Lipinski (he seems more personally popular in the district), but the lack of a splintered field should help Cisneros. If both Cuellar & Lipinski lose (and no other anti-choice Democrats emerge), it's entirely possible Collin Peterson would be the last Democrat in the House who opposes abortion rights (and that's assuming he makes it through the general election).
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