OVP: Fences (2016)

Film: Fences (2016)
Stars: Denzel Washington, Viola Davis, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Jovan Adepo, Russell Hornsby, Mykelti Williamson, Saniyya Sidney
Director: Denzel Washington
Oscar History: 4 nominations (Best Picture, Actor-Denzel Washington, Supporting Actress-Viola Davis, Adapted Screenplay)
Snap Judgment Ranking: 3/5 stars

Stage-to-screen adaptations are an odd duck for me.  I grew up in a small town in rural Minnesota, so access to movies was tough for me-access to theater was downright impossible.  In fact, some of my earliest memories of plays and musicals were, like so many in my situation, their big-screen counterparts, and two in particular stick out in my mind: A Streetcar Named Desire and Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?.  Both feature some of the finest screen acting of all-time, a fascinating study of what exactly to do when you're being filmed in a medium that isn't the intended medium for your work.  That transformation, though, is difficult to grasp, even for world class actors.  We have seen that with films like Proof or Doubt, where riveting stage works end up falling flat when transformed to the big-screen.  As this was August Wilson's first dance in celluloid, and Denzel Washington is a pretty inexperienced film director, I was curious how this translation would take place.

(Spoilers Ahead) I will admit at the beginning of this article that I, personally, had never seen any of the works of August Wilson on the stage, though I was obviously familiar with his name.  Therefore, the story of Troy Maxson (Washington), his wife Rose (Davis), and his complicated relationship with his past successes and failures (of which he occasionally counts his sons), was one that I had never heard nor didn't know the direction it was going to take.  There's always something to be said for sampling a story for the first time, and if there's nothing else you should take away from this review, it was that I was enamored and mesmerized by August Wilson's dialogue and pacing.  Damn, that man could write.  Seeing Fences unfold was, in some ways, similar to the first time I saw Streetcar or Death of a Salesman or The Crucible for the first time-it's electric, profound, wonderfully scripted.  The original production won the Pulitzer Prize, and it deserved it.  Wilson's insights into the American family and sharp plotting are something to behold-it's hard to argue with the fact that Fences is an American classic in terms of its actual script.  Suffice it to say, I will be seeing August Wilson plays every chance I get from now on if this is any indication of what they entail.

As a result of this scripting, pretty much anything about the film should be interesting, and Washington is smart enough to hire actors who can actually act, and in many cases actors who have stage experience like Davis and Stephen McKinley Henderson as Troy's weary friend Bono.  They can sink their teeth into the script and deliver some of the monologues with a raw intensity.  It's hard to see the film and not think that this was pin-dropping work on a stage.  When Troy comes in and says he's going to be a father or Rose demanding that she had dreams too-that's some fantastic work.

The problem for me was that while Washington smartly keeps the film largely inside the small world of the Maxson's home (only rarely do they leave for a bar or his work place), the performances frequently feel off, as if Washington and Davis aren't quite ready to tone down the work to a cinematic level.  Washington in particular I felt was still pitching for the back of the Cort Theatre with a number of his monologues, and while he's too good of an actor to not land some of the emotionality of the role, this weird lack of modulation makes his Troy seem less like a character we're seeing unfold before our eyes and more like a vehicle for wonderful soliloquies; Washington's Troy doesn't seem like he could possibly be a real person.  This is a problem since Troy as written is decidedly real, someone who has been broken down by bad luck and the racist timing of history.  In another era, he would have been Jackie Robinson, a pioneer, or Hank Aaron, one of the greats, but instead is a garbage collector because he got old too soon.  The cruelty of the writing keeps Washington and Davis in-check in terms of too many bursts of over-acting (and both get wonderful moments, like the quieter ones surrounding Troy's love child and how she is motherless at birth), but only Henderson truly shifts to the cinema, giving the best performance in the film as a someone whose opinion of Troy slowly moves from friendly adoration to pity to distance.  There's a great scene toward the end of the movie where Bono looks at Troy with this fantastic look of "get away from me" after so many years of hero-worshiping him-it's marvelous work from Henderson, and the kind of touch that isn't possible in a giant Broadway house.

So yes, the film is good, but it's only good in my opinion because it seems next to impossible to screw up a script this flawless.  I'm undecided on if August Wilson deserves the Oscar he'll probably be posthumously nominated for (after all, he had no way of knowing this would happen or didn't adapt the film at all to the screen personally), but it's hard to imagine that a better piece of writing will be nominated this year.  I still think, though, that this could have been one for the ages with some tweaking from Davis and Washington, both of whom hit so many runs throughout the film, but never the grand slam that the script gives the opportunity to achieve.

Living Cast Members of Classic Films

Well, in terms of celebrity deaths, few have been crueler than 2016.  We have seen so many classic stars of film, TV, and music pass away, and I thought it was about time that we revisited one of the more popular posts I ever did, recounting the living cast members of the 100 Greatest Films of All-Time.  The rule here that we'll try to stick to is simple-we'll be wanting to keep primarily to cast members that had a speaking role (I'll call out people that were technically against that rule).  If I miss someone, please correct me in the comments as I'd love to be as accurate as possible.

1. Citizen Kane (1941)

No living cast member of the greatest film ever made is still with us.  Sonny Bupp was the final actor to have a speaking role in the film to still be alive-he played Charles Foster Kane III in the movie, and died in 2007 at the age of 79.  It’s worth noting that his sister Ann had a non-speaking role in Gone with the Wind, but she died in 2005.

2. Casablanca (1943)

Unfortunately the last living cast member of Casablanca, Madeleine LeBeau who played Rick's beautiful mistress Yvonne, passed away earlier this year at the age of 92.  LeBeau's finest scene in the film, the beautiful "La Marseillaise" scene, was genuine-many cast members in the film were in fact French refugees, and the movie was filmed during the heart of World War II.

Diane Keaton

3. The Godfather (1972)

Some of these films are obviously more recent than others, and while the godfather himself is no longer with us (Marlon Brando died in 2004), major stars of the film Al Pacino, James Caan, Robert Duvall, Talia Shire, Diane Keaton, and Gianni Russo are still with us.  Sadly, though, Abe Vigoda who played Tessio, passed away in January.

4. Gone with the Wind (1939)

We celebrated a major centennial this past year when Olivia de Havilland turned 100 in July.  She won an Oscar nomination for her work as Melanie Wilkes, but lost to costar Hattie McDaniel who died in 1952.  The only other living actor in the film is the man who played her son Beau, Mickey Kuhn, who is 84.

5. Lawrence of Arabia (1962)

The last major character to still be alive was Omar Sharif, who died in 2015.  However, I can still find  some living cast members, most significantly Michel Ray, who played the young Farraj in the movie, and is 72.  

6. The Wizard of Oz (1939)

Dialogue gets tricky here, as the last person with actual dialogue to still be alive was Meinhardt Raabe (he played the coroner), who passed away in 2010.  However, Jerry Maren, a member of the Lollipop Guild, did sing in the film and at 96 is still with us.

7. The Graduate (1967)

Mrs. Robinson passed away a few years back, but most of the major players in this film are still alive, including Dustin Hoffman (Ben), Katharine Ross (Elaine), and William Daniels (Mr. Braddock).  Hoffman and Ross both won Oscar nominations for their work in the film.

Eva Marie Saint

8. On the Waterfront (1954)

Karl Malden’s death in 2009 put a hit on a few of these films, but one major character in the film is still alive: Eva Marie Saint, who won an Oscar for her work as Edie.  This role was Saint’s debut, and she was pregnant when she won the Oscar.

9. Schindler’s List (1993)

By my count, all major actors in this, one of the newest films on the list, are still alive, including Oscar nominated actors Ralph Fiennes and Liam Neeson.

10. Singin’ in the Rain (1952)

With the passing of Debbie Reynolds this past week, the only major actor who gets screen credit in the film is Rita Moreno, who plays Zelda and is 85 as of a few weeks ago.  It's debatable whether or not Jimmy Thompson, who sings the song "Beautiful Girl" is still alive (the internet is not conclusive on that front), but as he gets a full song he'd count.  Any ideas people?

11. It’s a Wonderful Life (1946)

While every major adult actor in the film has passed away, a number of the Bailey children are still alive, including 76-year-old Karolyn Grimes, who played Zuzu and said the classic line, “every time a bell rings, an angel gets its wings.”

12.  Sunset Boulevard (1950)

The only major cast member from the film still living is Nancy Olson, who is 88 as of this writing.  Ms. Olson won her sole Oscar nomination for the film playing Betty Schaefer, the woman scorned by Joe Gillis.  Olson is largely retired from acting but makes occasional appearances, including in the TV show Big Love and the recent film Dumbbells.

Geoffrey Horne

13. The Bridge on the River Kwai (1957)

One of the interesting things about researching all of these write-ups is that it seems like most films have one actor that hung on long past the rest.  In the case of this David Lean classic, it is Geoffrey Horne, who at 83-years-of-age is the only principle member of the cast still alive.  Horne played Lieutenant Joyce in the films, and would go onto a number of character parts before retiring from acting after starring in (of all things) Adam Sandler’s Big Daddy.

14. Some Like It Hot (1959)

With Marilyn long gone, and Tony Curtis recently passing away, the only major character I can find (film fanatatics-take to the comments if I’m missing someone obvious for any of these) is Nehemiah Persoff, who plays Little Bonaparte in the film.  Persoff is 97-years-old.

15. Stars Wars (1977)

Of course this past week we lost one of the biggest stars of the film, Carrie Fisher, but there are still a number of cast members in the film, including Harrison Ford, Mark Hamill, and Denis Lawson, that are still with us.

16. All About Eve (1950)

With the death of Celeste Holm in 2012, I can find no one in this impressive cast still alive.

17. The African Queen (1951)

Theodore Bikel, who won an Oscar nomination in 1958 for The Defiant Ones, made his screen debut opposite Hepburn and Bogie, and played the First Officer in this film.  He passed away at age 91 in 2015, becoming the last living cast member in the film.

Vera Miles, John Gavin, and
the late Janet Leigh

18. Psycho (1960)

Though both Anthony Perkins and Janet Leigh have passed, a number of smaller characters in this film are still alive, including Vera Miles (Marion’s sister Lila), John Gavin (Marion’s boyfriend Sam) and Pat Hitchcock (Marion’s co-worker, and also Alfred Hitchcock’s daughter).

19. Chinatown (1974)

Most of the cast of Chinatown is still alive, albeit largely retired, with Jack Nicholson, Faye Dunaway, John Hillerman, and Diane Ladd all amongst us.

20. One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (1975)

Another Nicholson classic, the cast of this film is largely kicking, including Oscar winner Louise Fletcher and Brad Dourif, who received an Oscar nomination and a Golden Globe Award for his screen debut as Billy Bibbit.

21. The Grapes of Wrath (1940)

I’m as amazed as you are that this isn’t our third film with no living cast members, but Darryl Hickman, who played the role of Winfield Joad, is still alive at the grand old age of 85.  Hickman, a celebrated child star, at one point was in a monastery and eventually became a television executive.

22. 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968)

Douglas Rain (the voice of HAL 9000) is still alive, and would eventually be nominated for a Tony Award for his work in Vivat Regina!.  Several other stars including Gary Lockwood (Frank Poole) and Keir Dullea (David Bowman) are also around from the film.

23. The Maltese Falcon (1941)

It always hurts a cast exponentially if there aren’t younger female or child actors in the film, which is the case with The Maltese Falcon.  The last living film star I can find from the movie is Elisha Cook, Jr., who died in 1995 and played Wilmer.  

Cathy Moriarty

24. Raging Bull (1980)

The film won Robert de Niro his Best Actor Oscar and he continues to act in movies (getting nominated four years ago for Silver Linings Playbook).  Oscar nominees Cathy Moriarty (Vickie) and Joe Pesci (Joey) are also still alive.  Joe Pesci's onscreen wife was played by Theresa Saldana, who died of pneumonia in June.

25. E.T.: the Extra-Terrestrial (1982)

All of the principle human characters in the film are still with us, including Henry Thomas (Elliott), Robert MacNaughton (Michael), Dee Wallace (Mary), and of course Drew Barrymore (Gertie).  The primary voice of E.T., Pat Welsh, died at the age of 79 in 1995.

26. Dr. Strangelove: or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb (1964)

Tracy Reed (who played Miss Scott, the lover of General Buck Turgidson in the film) died in 2012 (she was the youngest major cast member in the film), though a couple of actors still are alive from the film, including James Earl Jones (who played Lothar Zogg) and Shane Rimmer (who played Ace Owens).

27. Bonnie and Clyde (1967)

All five members of the Barrow Gang (Warren Beatty, Faye Dunaway, Estelle Parsons, Michael J. Pollard, and Gene Hackman) were not only Oscar-nominated for the film-they’re also clearly blessed with good genes, as all five are still alive.  Gene Wilder, who has a small role in the film, passed away in August.

Robert Duvall

28. Apocalypse Now! (1979)

With the exceptions of Brando and Dennis Hopper, most of the cast of this film (including Martin Sheen, Robert Duvall, Frederic Forrest, Albert Hall, and Laurence Fishburne) are still with us.

29. Mr. Smith Goes to Washington (1939)

Two of the Hopper Boys are still alive (Billy Watson and Garry Watson), though I don’t know if either of them have speaking parts in the film so I’m not sure if this should count (I haven’t seen this movie in a while-any experts know?).

30. The Treasure of the Sierra Madre (1948)

Yet another film that appears to have absolutely no living cast members in speaking parts, the last living cast member appears to be Bruce Bennett, who died in 2007 (he played Cody, and earlier in his career was one of the Tarzans).

31. Annie Hall (1977)

Most of the main cast members, including Diane Keaton, Woody Allen, Carol Kane, Paul Simon, Shelley Duvall, and Christopher Walken are all still with us.

32. The Godfather, Part II (1974)

Like its predecessor at Number Two, most of these cast members are still with us, including Robert Duvall, Al Pacino, Diane Keaton, Robert de Niro, and Talia Shire.

33. High Noon (1952)

From what I can tell, no speaking cast member of this film is still alive.  The last one that I know speaks at some point in the film that was still alive appears to be Sheb Wooley, who died in 2003 at the age of 82 (he played Ben Miler).

Phillip Alford and Mary Badham

34. To Kill a Mockingbird (1961)

Gregory Peck has passed, but principle characters Mary Badham (Scout), Phillip Alford (Jem), and Robert Duvall (Boo Radley) are still with us.

35. It Happened One Night (1934)

Another film with no living members, the last living cast member appears to be the Oscar-winning star of the film Claudette Colbert, who was 92 when she died in 1996.

36. Midnight Cowboy (1969)

All three of the Oscar-nominated stars of the film (Jon Voight, Dustin Hoffman, and Sylvia Miles) as well as multiple supporting cast members (including Bob Balaban and Brenda Vaccaro) are still kicking.

37. The Best Years of Our Lives (1946)

In 2005, the last two speaking cast members in the film (Virginia Mayo and Teresa Wright) passed away.  I feel like maybe one of the kids might still be alive (particularly Marlene Aames who played Luella), but I can find no evidence to support this fact.

38. Double Indemnity (1944)

Jean Heather, who played Lola Dietrichson (Barbara Stanwyck’s stepdaughter) was probably the youngest cast member in the film, and lived the longest, dying at the age of 74 in 1995.

Julie Christie

39. Doctor Zhivago (1965)

Many cast members of this classic are still alive, including Julie Christie, Geraldine Chaplin, and Tom Courtenay.  Zhivago himself, Omar Sharif, passed away in 2015.

40. North by Northwest (1959)

A few cast members in Hitch’s classic thriller are still alive including star Eva Marie Saint and supporting player Martin Landau.

41. West Side Story (1961)

Though Natalie Wood (Maria) died tragically in a drowning accident, most of the other actors including Richard Beymer (Tony), George Chakiris (Bernardo), Rita Moreno (Anita), and Russ Tamblyn (Riff) are still alive.

42. Rear Window (1954)

By my count there are very few speaking parts in this film, but we’ll stretch to characters with names here so that we can give Harry Landers, who was Miss Lonelyhearts guest (he was uncredited) some press as he’s still alive at 95.

43. King Kong (1933)

Fay Wray’s death in 2004 meant that all main characters in this film had passed away.  It’s still worth wondering whether she would have won the Oscar had she taken on the role of Rose Dawson Calvert in Titanic (she was offered the role before Gloria Stuart took it, and was more famous than Stuart which likely would have built up her sympathy factor).  Also, fate is a cruel mistress, as it would have been so poetic if (as Peter Jackson had originally intended) she would have done the classic “Beauty killed the beast” line at the end of the remake (she died before the scene was shot).

44. The Birth of a Nation (1915)

Lillian Gish, the film’s star, seems to have been the longest-lived cast member.  22 when the film came out, she would go on to live seven more decades before dying in 1993 just eight months shy of her 100^th birthday.

45. A Streetcar Named Desire (1951)

Wikipedia incorrectly lists Wright King (who plays the collector) as the only living member of this cast, but I do believe that Mickey Kuhn (whom you’ll remember from the Gone with the Wind entry) as a Sailor has a speaking part and is also still living.

Malcolm McDowell

46. A Clockwork Orange (1971)

Most of the younger cast members in the film (including Malcolm McDowell) are stil alive.  However, Adrienne Corri who plays the harangued Mrs. Alexander, passed away this past March.

47. Taxi Driver (1976)

Almost all of the main stars of the film are still alive, including Robert de Niro, Cybill Shepherd, Harvey Keitel, Jodie Foster, and Albert Brooks. 

48. Jaws (1975)

Though only one of the men who went out in search of the beast is still alive (69-year-old Richard Dreyfuss), Lorraine Gary, Carl Gottlieb, and the girl who started it all Susan Backlinie are all still around.

49. Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (1939)

Adriana Caselotti (the voice of Snow White) appears to have been the longest-lived here (though there’s a big cast-someone might be hiding from me), as she passed away at age 80 in 1997.

50. Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid (1969)

Rounding out the Top 50 (like I said-if there’s lots of interest in the comments I’ll take a crack at the next fifty), and though Butch Cassidy is no longer with us both the Sundance Kid (Robert Redford) and Etta Place (Katharine Ross) are.

51. The Philadelphia Story (1940)

I figured that Virginia Weidler, who played the young Dinah Lord and was only thirteen when the film was released would be my best bet but she tragically died of a heart attack at the age of 41, being outlived by almost all of her adult costars.  By my count Ruth Hussey, who plays Ms. Imbrie made it the longest, passing away in 2005.

52. From Here to Eternity (1953)

Oscar-winning screenwriter Alvin Sargent (89) played a character named Nair.  I haven't seen this movie in about ten years I cannot validate if he actually speaks (comments, oh friends).  Nair, at least, has a line in the script so I'm assuming that he does speak.  If neither of these men have lines, then the recent death of Ernest Borgnine in 2012 was the end of the road for this picture.

53. Amadeus (1984)

Finally, a film that I can vouch for with certainty.  Most of the leads of this particular film, including F. Murray Abraham, Tom Hulce, Elizabeth Berridge, and Jeffrey Jones are still alive.

54. All Quiet on the Western Front (1930)

Arthur Gardner, who played one of the students at the beginning of the film, lived an astoundingly long life, dying at the age of 104 in 2014.  He was the last living cast member in the film.

Christopher Plummer and Julie Andrews

55. The Sound of Music (1965)

The hills are alive with the sound of lots of voices, thankfully, as Julie Andrews and Christopher Plummer are both still alive.  Charmian Carr, who played Liesl, was yet another icon from one of these films that died earlier this year at the age of 73 (of dementia in September).

56. MASH (1970)

Most of the cast is still alive from this Robert Altman movie so I don't have to research too much here.  Almost every lead, including Donald Sutherland, Elliott Gould, Tom Skerritt, Sally Kellerman, and Robert Duvall is still alive.

57. The Third Man (1949)

With the death of Alida Valli in 2006 at the age of 84 (she played Anna Schmidt) there appears to be no living members of The Third Man cast.

58. Fantasia (1940)

The only people I can find having a part in this film are Leopold Stokowski (the composer, who died in 1977 at the age of 95) and Deems Taylor (the narrator, who died in 1966 at the age of 80).

59. Rebel Without a Cause (1955)

The 2010 death of Corey Allen (who played Buzz) meant all principle characters in the film had passed away (odd for a film with so many young actors in the cast).  By my count that leaves only Jack Grinnage (aged 85), who played Moose, as the only living cast member in the film.

60. Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981)

Though a few of the principle actors in this film have passed away, we certainly haven't hit any dire straits in finding stars that are still with us.  Harrison Ford, Karen Allen, Paul Freeman, and John Rhys-Davies are all around and act regularly.

Kim Novak

61. Vertigo (1958)

Kim Novak probably won't be doing another awards presentation at the Oscars, but she is thankfully still with us at age 83.

62. Tootsie (1982)

As this is a recent film, most of the main cast (including Dustin Hoffman, Jessica Lange, Teri Garr, Dabney Coleman, Geena Davis, and Bill Murray) are still alive.

63. Stagecoach (1939)

Louise Platt, who played Lucy Mallory in the movie, was the final living cast member of this classic western.  She passed away in 2003 at the age of 88.

64. Close Encounters of the Third Kind (1977)

Though Francois Truffaut has passed away, most of the rest of the cast (amongst which are Richard Dreyfuss, Melinda Dillon, Teri Garr, Bob Balaban, and Cary Guffey) are still living and working.

65. The Silence of the Lambs (1991)

We all know that both Clarice and Hannibal are not only still working, but actively working and in the public eye (Jodie Foster in Money Monster, Hopkins in Westworld), but also supporting players Anthony Heald, Brooke Smith, Diane Baker, and Buffalo Bill himself Ted Levine are all still alive.

66. Network (1976)

Considering the relatively recent release date, Network has a pretty short roster of major characters still alive.  Only two of the film's five Oscar nominees are still alive (Faye Dunaway at 75 and Ned Beatty at 79), as well as supporting star Robert Duvall at 85.  Random fact about another living member of this cast: Conchata Ferrell, who plays Barbara Schlesinger in the film, is 73 and recently enjoyed the biggest role of her career in Two and a Half Men as Berta (she received two Emmy nominations for her performance).

Leslie Parrish

67. The Manchurian Candidate (1962)

Everyone knows that Angela Lansbury, who got her third Oscar nomination for this film, is still alive, but you might not know that several minor characters are also still alive, including Henry Silva (Chunjin) and Leslie Parrish (Jocelyn Jordan).  We'll have to deal with the sequel to this film when Trump becomes the actual Manchurian Candidate in a few weeks.

68. An American in Paris (1951)

French icon Leslie Caron made her film debut as Lise Bouvier in this iconic Best Picture winner.  Now in her eighties, she's still headlining stage work and recently won an Emmy Award.

69. Shane (1953)

Jack Palance, who died in 2006, was the last living member of the cast.

70. The French Connection (1971)

Gene Hackman won his first Oscar for his role as Popeye Doyle in this classic movie.  While he doesn't work anymore (he retired after, for some reason, Welcome to Mooseport), he's still alive at the age of 84.

71. Forrest Gump (1994)

The second most recent film on this list, almost every major actor in this film, including Tom Hanks, Sally Field, Robin Wright, Gary Sinise, and Mykelti Williamson, are still alive.

Claude Heater

72. Ben-Hur (1959)

Charlton Heston may no longer be alive, but Ben-Hur still has a couple of speaking characters still alive.  From what I can find, at least Claude Heater (who plays Jesus...though I don't know if he actually speaks) and Haya Harareet (who played Esther, and I'm confident she has lines) are both alive. Harareet for some reason didn't work past 1964, and resides in England at the age of 82.

73. Wuthering Heights (1939)

For non-famous actors, it's hard to tell if they actually died or just the public isn't aware of the fact that they are still alive.  I have no evidence to the contrary that Sarita Wooten (who played young Cathy) and Rex Downing (young Heathcliff) are still alive, so I'm keeping them on the list.

74. The Gold Rush (1925)

One of the oldest films on this list, this is probably the longest a film on this list has gone without a living cast member.  Georgia Hale, who played, conveniently enough, Georgia in the movie, died in 1985 at the age of 79-she appears to be the eldest person in the cast.

75. Dances with Wolves (1990)

Only 24 years old, this film has all of its principle cast members still alive, including Kevin Costner, Mary McDonnell, Graham Greene, and Rodney A. Grant.

76. City Lights (1931)

Virginia Cherrill played the blind flower girl in Chaplin’s masterpiece (I’ve seen all three of his films on this list, and this is easily my favorite).  She was the longest-lived, dying in 1996 at the age of 88 (outliving paperboy Robert Parrish by one year).  Two random facts: Cherrill actually disliked working with Chaplin and was almost recast with Georgia Hale in the role and Robert Parrish, who is uncredited as the Newsboy, went on to be an Oscar-winning film editor.

77. American Graffiti (1973)

Unlike Rebel without a Cause, most of this particular cast went on to not as tragic lives (give or take Mackenzie Phillips, though she is also still alive).  Amongst the living cast members are Richard Dreyfuss, Harrison Ford, Ron Howard, Charles Martin Smith, Cindy Williams, and Candy Clark, who got her sole Oscar nomination for her work as Debbie Dunham in the film.

Sylvester Stallone and Talia Shire

78. Rocky (1976)

Burgess Meredith is the only of the five main characters in this film to have passed away: Sylvester Stallone (70), Talia Shire (70), Burt Young (76), and Carl Weathers (68) are all around.  All but Weathers ended up with Academy Award nominations for acting (Stallone was also the writer of the film, and would become a major movie star in the years after this, even though this film would remain his crowning glory).

79. The Deer Hunter (1978)

Veteran character actor John Cazale (who starred in five films…all of which were nominated for Best Picture) is the only major character in this film who is no longer alive.  Robert de Niro (73), Meryl Streep (67), Christopher Walken (73), and John Savage (67) are all still kicking, with the former three gaining Oscar nominations for their work in this film.

80. The Wild Bunch (1969)

Though most of the principle members of the cast have long since past (or in the case of Ernest Borgnine, fairly recently past), a few are still alive.  Amongst them are Aurora Clavel (80), Jamie Sanchez (78), and prolific character actor Bo Hopkins (74), who is also one of the surviving cast members of American Graffiti.

81. Modern Times (1936)

Yet another classic film who lost their final cast member this year.  Gloria DeHaven, who had a bit part in Modern Times, was the last living star of the film and passed away at the age of 91 in July.

Jane Withers

82. Giant (1956)

Another film of the 1950's where all of the most famous actors in the film have passed away, but there are still a number of supporting players from the film still alive (again-it's been a while since I've seen this particular film, so correct me if none of these characters actually speak): Jane Withers (90, played Vashti), Fran Bennett (82, played Judy), Noreen Nash (92, played Lona Lane), Elsa Cardenas (81, played Juana), and most famously, Carroll Baker, who is 85 and played Luz in the film, but is best known for another movie that year that won her an Oscar nomination and an enormous amount of scandal: Baby Doll.

83. Platoon (1986)

One of the cast members has probably been on a few death pools through the years due to his erratic behavior, but all of the major cast members of Platoon are still alive as of this writing, including Charlie Sheen (51), Tom Berenger (67), Willem Dafoe (61), John C. McGinley (57), Kevin Dillon (51), and in a bit role, Johnny Depp (53).

84. Fargo (1996)

The newest film on this list, almost every major character in the movie in the film (save Harve Presnell, who died in 2009) is still alive.  Amongst them are Steve Buscemi (59), Melissa Peterman (45), Peter Stormare (63), William H. Macy (66), and Frances McDormand (59), the latter two winning Oscar nominations for their work and McDormand of course taking the Best Actress trophy.

85. Duck Soup (1933)

Zeppo was the last of the Marx Brothers to pass away (in 1979), but he was not the last surviving member of this madcap comedy hit.  That would be Raquel Toreres, who was only 25 when she was cast as the femme fatale Vera Marcal.  She passed away in 1987, at the age of 78.

86. Mutiny on the Bounty (1935)

Movita Castaneda had a very long life, most famously in Hollywood as the second wife of Marlon Brando, but here played Tehani, who ends up married to Franchot Tone in the film.  She died in 2015 at the age of 98.

87. Frankenstein (1931)

I assumed that the last surviving cast member in the film would be the woman who played Little Maria (Marilyn Harris), and I was right but unfortunately Ms. Harris passed away in 1999 at the age of 75.  Harris would quit acting once she reached adulthood and settled into a domestic life.  It's worth noting that Harris not only starred opposite Universal Studios star Boris Karloff, but also the biggest player at Warner Brothers of that era: Rin Tin Tin (she was just a few months old when she was featured in one of his 1924 pictures).

Peter Fonda and Jack Nicholson

88. Easy Rider (1969)

Moving ahead 38 years, we've got a considerably longer list of living actors in Easy Rider, including two of the film's stars (Peter Fonda and Jack Nicholson, both of whom received their first Oscar nominations for the movie).  Toni Basil and infamous record producer Phil Spector both also appeared in the film and are still alive (though Spector is of course living in prison after being convicted of the murder of actress Lana Clarkson).

89. Patton (1970)

Despite its recent filming, you actually have to go pretty far down the cast list with Patton to find living members of the film's call sheet.  Amongst the living cast members are 84-year-old Siegfried Rauch who played Captain Steiger in the film and Stephen Young (85) who played Chester Hansen in the movie.  Young also had a small part in a bit film seven years earlier, a little film called Cleopatra.

90. The Jazz Singer (1927)

This movie (which is just awful, by the way, innovation be damned), has no surviving cast members.  The last surviving cast member I can find is Robert Gordon (at the time being billed as Bobby) who played Al Jolson's character Jakie as a child.  Gordon would largely retire from acting as an adult and would become a television director before dying in 1990 at the age of 77.

91. My Fair Lady (1964)

The last major star of the film was one that wasn't seen onscreen, but behind it.  Marni Nixon, who really deserved an Honorary Oscar at some point, passed away in July at the age of 86.  If we're counting only onscreen players, we'd have to go with Theodore Bikel, he of African Queen fame, who died last year.

92. A Place in the Sun (1951)

Another film where every obvious cast member has passed away a while ago, I believe every credited cast member has passed away (for those keeping track, I believe this is our most recent film with the entire cast having passed away, but I may be mistaken).  It's been a long time since I've seen this, though, and at least a couple of the actresses in the film in uncredited parts were relatively young-my hunch is that at least one of them has both a spoken line and is still alive, but I cannot find any proof, so if there's any fans of this particular movie with some knowledge, let me know!

93. The Apartment (1960)

Thank god for Shirley MacLaine in so many ways, not least of which because as the lead actress of this film she's going strong and an easy answer for this contest.  MacLaine received her second Academy Award nomination as Fran Kubelik for this movie.  Also alive from the flick is Hope Holiday, who played the hilarious Margie MacDougall.

Lorraine Bracco and Ray Liotta

94. GoodFellas (1990)

Two films from the 1990's for our next two slots, so we have a plethora of major stars in these films still alive, including Ray Liotta (62), Robert de Niro (73), Joe Pesci (73), Lorraine Bracco (62), and Paul Sorvino (77).  Bracco and Pesci would go on to receive Oscar nominations for their roles in the film, with Pesci winning the trophy.

95. Pulp Fiction (1994)

Again, another very recent film with the bulk of the stars of the film still alive.  Amongst them are John Travolta (62), Samuel L. Jackson (68...and, ever prolific, he was also in GoodFellas), Uma Thurman (46), Harvey Keitel (77), and Bruce Willis (61).  Travolta, Jackson, and Thurman all were Oscar-nominated for their work in the film, with the latter two earning their only Oscar nominations to date, despite very long careers in the cinema.

96. The Searchers (1956)

First off, let's just admit the obvious here-Jeffrey Hunter is perhaps the most attractive movie star you've never heard of (we've spoken a bit about his wife Barbara Rush over here), and in addition to playing Martin Pawley in this film, he also played the world's sexiest Jesus in King of Kings.  Hunter died in a freak accident in 1969, though, so he's not part of this write-up.  Instead, we have Vera Miles once again to the rescue (the 87-year-old also starred in Psycho on this list, as well as such classics as The Wrong Man and The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance).  Other actors in the film (though I cannot vouch for them actually having lines like I know Miles does, though I feel like at least a few of them do) that are still alive are Lana Wood (younger sister of Natalie, who would go on to be Bond Girl Plenty O'Toole in Diamonds are Forever and is 70 now) and 81-year-old Pippa Scott (who plays Lucy).

97. Bringing Up Baby (1938)

Even looking into bit parts I am at a loss here, so it looks like Katharine Hepburn, who passed away in 2003 at the age of 96 is the longest-lived member of this particular cast.

Morgan Freeman

98. Unforgiven (1992)

We're much better off with this more recent picture, with 75% of the main characters still alive (only Richard Harris as English Bob has passed away).  We have of course Clint Eastwood (86), Gene Hackman (86), and Morgan Freeman (79), as well as some younger actors in Frances Fisher (64), Anna Levine (63), Jaimz Woolvett (49), and Shane Meier (39) that are still alive from this classic western.

99. Guess Who's Coming to Dinner? (1967)

We thankfully don't have to rely on Ms. Hepburn for this film, as legendary Oscar winner Sidney Poitier (89) is still with us.  Also alive from this film is Katharine Houghton (71), who played his fiance in the film (and I never realized the intense age difference between the two until just now-anyone who has seen this film (I haven't) know if the 18 year gap is mentioned in the movie?).  Houghton would win a Golden Globe nomination for her performance and go on to star in a sparse amount of films, though one of them for some reason was The Last Airbender (yes, the M. Night Shyamalan movie).

100. Yankee Doodle Dandy (1942)

I can't find any credited cast members that are still living, with the death of Joan Leslie last year at the age of 90.  However, Joyce Horne (91) and Joyce Reynolds (92) both appeared in bit roles in the film, and are still with us.  Reynolds would eventually become a major star as the lead in Janie, while Horne would play a chorus girl in Singin' in the Rain.

OVP: Hacksaw Ridge (2016)

Film: Hacksaw Ridge (2016)
Stars: Andrew Garfield, Vince Vaughn, Sam Worthington, Luke Bracey, Hugo Weaving
Director: Mel Gibson
Oscar History: 6 nominations/2 wins (Best Picture, Director, Actor-Andrew Garfield, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing*, Film Editing*)
Snap Judgment Ranking: 2/5 stars

It's hard to remember now, but at one point Mel Gibson was a very big movie star.  Long before his drunken, anti-semitic rants, before his ultra-right political and religious views came out, and his bizarre divorce (after being one of the most devoted family men in Hollywood) followed by increasingly erratic romantic behavior, Mel Gibson was one of the best action stars in Hollywood.  Impossibly handsome (bordering on the beautiful back in the 1980's), funny, charming, and suave onscreen, he might not have always been the best actor, but he crossed that line into being a truly great movie star, one of those few people who could open any film and even make the bad ones enjoyable because they were watching Mel Gibson onscreen.  I couldn't help but think of this fact as I sat through the frustrating, occasionally intriguing but usually terrible Hacksaw Ridge.

(Spoilers Ahead...though it's real life so, you know, read a book) The film is the story of Desmond Doss (Garfield), the first man in American history to receive the Medal of Honor and be a conscientious objector, winning it for actions he took during the Battle of Okinawa.  Doss's story is one for the ages, and it seems kind of unthinkable that no one had made this into a movie before.  The film follows him from his early days in Virginia to eventually fighting in Japan, but as he was a Seventh-Day Adventist with deeply-held beliefs, he refuses to kill a man in war or to even hold a weapon.  As a result, he is ostracized by his fellow soldiers until his grit and devotion wear them down and he proves himself in battle, saving the lives of some 75 men who had been left for dead atop Hacksaw Ridge.

It's a riveting story, the kind tailor-made for the screen (one of those, it wouldn't be believable except it's true situations), and indeed as far back as Audie Murphy they've been trying to make this into a film, but somehow it was Gibson who eventually brought it forth.  The actual by-product of the movie never quite lives up to its promise, particularly since Gibson struggles in early scenes in establishing his characters, particularly Andrew Garfield, who plays Doss as, well, "simple" in early scenes that are excruciatingly bad.  This continues as Gibson, likely without his A-list recruiting talents, is stuck with relatively banal actors like Sam Worthington and the terrible Vince Vaughan (seriously-when he is not filled with bombast?).  All-in-all, though, Gibson is saved by that movie star mentality.

What makes conservative filmmakers like Gibson and Clint Eastwood such fine filmmakers even when they're gearing toward politics that don't always jive with the audience or what we expect out of Hollywood, is that they frame their films in ways that are structured for classic movie stars.  Being movie stars themselves, they end up frequently making movies that center so well around a central performance that it's hard not to cheer for the protagonist, which isn't as easy as it sounds.  We all are meant to like the good guy, but actually cheering for them takes some emotional investment, and Gibson and Eastwood both do that rather well.  Their films occasionally lack the nuance that would make them exceptional (Gibson, for example, seems to revel in the violence a little too much behind the lens to properly give Doss's religious and pacifist views a chance), but they know how to structure their movies well so that a central performance can come through.  In the end, you find yourself rooting for Doss even if you thought him ludicrous at the beginning of the picture.  Gibson smartly gives side characters enough due that you recognize them as they are saved by Doss later in the film (and even winks at the way his posterior was exploited continuously in the 80's/90's by having Luke Pegler nude for much of the film), but never really pulls away from his central hero.  If Garfield gets an Oscar nomination (which I suspect he will, even if he doesn't really deserve it), he'll have Gibson's direction, so focused on making his arch work, to thank for him as Garfield's actorly instincts have always relied more heavily on that of a character performance than a leading man.  Mel Gibson may never make a truly great movie (unlike Clint, who has), but it's hard to deny that there are effective, action movie moments in this film that work splendidly, even if it's dreadful in other patches of the film enough so that I can't properly recommend this picture.

Those are my thoughts-how about yours?  I know that I'm still leery that Gibson is back (especially in the same year as Trump), but since he is-what do you think of this as a comeback vehicle?  Do you think he should get another property again, or was this too indulgent?  And what other movie stars made fine directors for, well, movie stars?  Share in the comments!

Debbie Reynolds (1932-2016)

Just a day after her daughter, we bid adieu to the other half of one of Hollywood's great mother-daughter pairs.  Debbie Reynolds, star of the silver screen for over sixty years, passed away yesterday in one of those cruel cosmic twists where two of the great stars of their eras were wiped away in a year that has been particularly unkind to icons.

If Carrie was eternally going to be Princess Leia, for me and for countless film fans Debbie would always be Kathy Selden, the singing ingenue who jumped out of a cake in Singin' in the Rain, and landed a star both onscreen and off.  Singin' in the Rain has long been one of my favorite movies (I've seen it dozens of times), and Reynolds is the consummate center of the film.  Think of the comic skill she needs for that car ride with Gene Kelly or to jump furniture with Donald O'Connor.  I mean, "Good Morning" itself is one of the greatest scenes in film history, and certainly one of the most flawlessly choreographed.  She would make movies for decades afterward, proving Molly Brown unsinkable and prove quite the mother to Albert Brooks, and would even provide fodder for a truly great movie (written by Carrie) called Postcards from the Edge, but for me it's hard to move past Kathy Selden, it's such a perfect role in one of the truly perfect films.

That is, except the passing of Debbie Reynolds particularly makes me think of my mom, and not just because of her connotations with Carrie.  My mom loves Debbie Reynolds.  Seriously-she has always been one of her favorite actresses.  I remember in the era prior to Amazon and eBay and quite frankly Google we would check every week for Bundle of Joy to be on AMC so we could tape it and would always stop on a Debbie Reynolds movie whenever it was on, and like clockwork my mom always would say (and still does) "I just love Debbie Reynolds."  Movies have a way to bring people together, and forever I will always think of Debbie Reynolds not just as jumping out of that cake, but the smile she brings every time that my mom sees her while we're flipping the channel.

Carrie Fisher (1956-2016)

Can 2016 just, well, take a chill pill?  Seriously-I know that 2017 is potentially going to be worse (Voldemort will go from being a Twitter troll to the most powerful man on Earth and all that), but this year has, in a word, sucked.  That was no more apparent than yesterday, when we heard that yet another cultural icon, the incomparable Carrie Fisher, had passed.

It's hard not to be angry right now, and I think Carrie Fisher would relish that the reactions over her death have ranged from biting dark humor to a series of "are you kidding me's?" since Fisher herself rarely took certain aspects of herself particularly seriously.  While she grew up the daughter of Hollywood royalty and eventually became an icon as Princess Leia, her later life was more a celebrated look at herself.  She spoke poignantly and hilariously about her celebrity highs-and-lows, her issues with drugs and alcohol, and in particular became a plainspoken advocate for those dealing with mental illness.  So many people are indebted to Fisher for her plainspoken and frank discussions about mental illness, as it helped the conversation continue about bipolar issues and mental health, a topic that has taken great strides in public acceptance since Fisher came forward some 15 years ago (though we still have a long way to go).

And yet for many, despite the decades of writing and public advocacy and acting, she will be eternally Princess Leia, a fine legacy in itself.  I remember looking to Star Wars with different eyes the first time I saw the series than most young men my age.  While Luke was too passive for me and Han was more an object of lust for my teenage viewing, Leia was cool.  She was badass, someone to root thoroughly for as she fought the dark side and commanded respect from everyone around her.  To find out that the woman who inhabited her was also a cool, badass who commanded respect-that was particularly sweet icing on the cake.

No Globe, No SAG...No Problem?

All right, so sorry for the mini-break.  I have been battling a breakup, a cold, and a hellishly busy work week for the past two weeks and so as a result something had to give, and since I don't have Jack Nicholson to cry over, it ended up being the blog.  But we're back, and I have next week off, so we'll be seeing a lot of articles coming in the remaining week of the year and into January as we hit the heights of Oscar season.

It's become something of an annual tradition at the blog to go through, once the dust has settled from the SAG and Golden Globe nominations, to see where the race stands, and specifically figure out who amidst the nominees looks headed toward Oscar immortality and who will be left as the Marilyn Hack.  The reality is that most of the people that were nominated for one of these awards will be nominated in a few weeks with AMPAS, but not all of them.  In fact, only once in the past year have we encountered a season that left us with a completely SAG/Globe-blessed Oscar race, in 2006 (mostly due to the strangeness of the Supporting Actor race, where they were so split across the board that there weren't as many options as usual for Oscar to strike out on his own).  Here's a rundown of recent races that went off-the-beaten-path and went with someone that the precursors largely ignored:

2015: Charlotte Rampling, Tom Hardy, and Mark Ruffalo
2014: Bradley Cooper, Marion Cotillard, and Laura Dern

2013: Jonah Hill

2012: Quvenzhane Wallis, Emannuelle Riva, and Jacki Weaver

2011: Gary Oldman and Max von Sydow

2010: Javier Bardem

2009: Maggie Gyllenhaal

2008: Michael Shannon

2007: Laura Linney and Tommy Lee Jones

2006: Zero (let's pay attention people-we've already been over this)

As you can see, especially in recent years, Oscar has had a mind of his own, but the question is-who does he end up going stray with this year?  Below I've chronicled the Top 10 most likely candidates to get in even if they haven't been mentioned yet, with Number One being the most filled-with-hope of the remaining candidates.  Weigh in below in the comments over who you think is your dark horse contender for the race!

10. Lily Gladstone (Certain Women)

For Her: Her surprise victory at LAFCA earlier this season definitely put Gladstone on the map, and this is a category where there's a high susceptibility for a nomination without a major precursor, since the Globes/SAG went 5/5 with the supporting ladies.  After all, Octavia Spencer was a surprise consensus choice (sometimes, like Leo DiCaprio in J. Edgar that's a bad thing) and Nicole Kidman has defaulted before (The Paperboy).  Gladstone is getting best-in-show raves against Oscar favorites like Laura Dern and Michelle Williams, and occasionally the Academy goes completely against-the-grain, especially in this category.
Against Her: People like Jacki Weaver had more buzz, and more fame, than Gladstone did, and will this make it to the top of the screener pile without an easier hook or another performer from the film also commanding buzz?  It's pretty quiet, and it's not like Kelly Reichardt has ever been an AMPAS draw before.

9. Ben Foster (Hell or High Water)

For Him: For starters, he's a fine actor in a film that is on the edges of a Best Picture citation (anyone else able to get a gage on if this is happening for the top prize?), and he's actually good in it.  Plus, one could argue that they owe Foster, and they know it-he's been consistently great in most films he's done for the past decade, and they occasionally like to mark a longtime character actor with a nomination ala Michael Shannon or Stanley Tucci.  They'll already be watching this for Bridges...
Against Him: ...but will that end up being a hindrance?  No film has had two nominations for Supporting Actor since 1991's Bugsy, and would the Academy start again this year, particularly considering there is a pretty solid batch of diverse contenders in the running for this trophy?  It's a hard sell to make.

8. Michael Keaton (The Founder)

For Him: On paper, there's so much going for Keaton.  He's a recent Oscar nominee who has headlined two back-to-back Best Picture winners, and yet he hasn't managed to score a win despite there being an enormous amount of momentum indicating he could do so.  He's starring in a showy biopic from the Weinsteins, who don't really have a horse in this race but should never be entirely counted out of the Oscar race.
Against Him: Where's the buzz?  Honestly-Best Actor this year is supremely weak, in my opinion, and there's a lot of room for an upset like this to happen, but has anyone even seen this movie-why has this picture, at one time considered a serious player for the trophy here, essentially disappeared from contention?  Is it because it isn't any good, because that's going to hinder it greatly in actually getting a random citation (random citations are usually for either films that are over-celebrated or critical darlings-you don't oftentimes make it if you aren't one of those two things).

7. Matthew McConaughey (Gold)

For Him: Like Keaton, McConaughey has been sort of an omnipresent factor in the Oscar race since his big AMPAS break a few years ago.  He's one of the undeniable movie stars of the moment, and he has the rare ability to combine critical with commercial and invite himself to the Oscar talk.  It felt like after Dallas Buyers Club he'd probably be back soon-could a stealth campaign work for him here?
Against Him: I'm getting a Jen-Aniston-in-Cake vibe here (which isn't entirely bad-I liked Aniston in Cake), but she didn't make it to the Oscars with that "movie that doesn't exist" sort of campaign, and I wonder if that could be the case with McConaughey.  Honestly, this is the sort of year for Best Actor where you could get in on name alone, but I'd expect at least a teensy bit more buzz if that were going to happen.

6. Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures)

For Her: The Best Actress field largely named most of the nominees at the Globes and SAG Awards.  Honestly, the woman who almost certainly would have been #1 on this list (Isabelle Huppert) inexplicably landed at the Globes, and so for the most part I didn't have much to say here...except for Henson.  She's a huge star now, and this film is likely A) going to be seen by a lot of people and B) could end up being a pretty across-the-board hit with the Academy as it's populist and warm in a year where there isn't a lot of populist and warm (it's been my surprise Best Picture nominee prediction for months).  Could Henson find room in a volatile Best Actress field?
Against Her: Unlike Best Actor, there's a lot of legitimately strong names here.  She'd essentially have to compete against the likes of Annette Bening, Meryl Streep, or Amy Adams, which is a tough sell.  Plus, her fame is mostly from television, not film, which could hurt her a bit in sinking a second nomination.

5. Liam Neeson (Silence)

For Him: I have felt that Liam Neeson is about as perfect of an Oscar nominee choice as one could make for months now.  He's graduated well beyond his first nod 23 years ago, becoming a major action movie star but one who brings gravitas thanks to his pedigreed chops.  Everyone's heard of him, and it's not like Marty Scorsese has had issue landing tough guys Supporting Actor nods before.  Anyone else feel a bit William Hurt in A History of Violence about this spot?
Against Him: Is this role big enough?  I've heard comparisons to Marlon Brando in Apocalypse Now!, which would be a tough sell, but honestly the lack of buzz in general is what's holding me back from a NGNG selection here.  Neeson is famous enough to win this trophy if he was a legit threat-if that were the case, wouldn't he be nominated at least at the Globes?

4. Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures)

For Her: I've said above that I think that Supporting Actress has some room to grow, and if anyone's sort of "arrived" at the cinema this year, it's Monae.  She's potentially starring in two Best Picture nominees, she's a warm presence onscreen, and honestly seems like she'd be a blast at Academy events.  AMPAS hasn't shied away from nominating two women from the same film in this category before (it's the most common acting category for it to happen by-far), and Cher, Bette Midler, and Peggy Lee can attest that they aren't snobs about going for musicians that take on a second career.
Against Her: They haven't gone for a crossover star in a while (just ask Justin Timberlake), and could she lose out on support from Octavia Spencer?  There might be an attitude of "she's young, she'll have others," if the Oscars are feeling cautionary about handing out a first shot to someone so new to the world of acting but famous somewhere else (perhaps Jennifer Hudson's less-than-stellar film career could be a hindrance?).

3. Tom Hanks (Sully)

For Him: He's a two-time Academy Award winner who is being directed by a man who has overseen 13 Academy Award-nominated performances.  I mean, that in and of itself could keep Hanks in the conversation, not to mention that he's been on a bit of a streak recently in terms of critical and commercial success (gone are the days where you couldn't count on Tom Hanks launching a movie), and he's playing a real-life hero in a year where we could use a few of those.  All-in-all, this feels up the Academy's sleeve.
Against Him: AMPAS has been so weary of Hanks in recent years even when they're more than willing to nominate his films.  Pictures like Captain Phillips and Bridge of Spies were Best Picture citations but somehow couldn't make it to Best Actor-could it be that the Academy has just moved past him (it happens-see also Emma Thompson, Susan Sarandon, and Ed Harris)?  His lack of a Globe or a SAG despite being one of the most recognizable movie stars on the planet has me thinking that this could be just people not feeling him anymore.

2. Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women)

For Her: Gerwig was on most people's predictions lists prior to the Globe and SAG nominations.  She did score at the BFCA and is getting raves for her work in 20th Century Women.  She's also still in that age group that Oscar tends to notice women (33, getting a bit old for Oscar's first date but not too much so-that's AMPAS sexism, not mine, commenters), and she's a consistent presence in arthouse cinema even if she hasn't broken out with general audiences quite yet.
Against Her: The Frances Ha nomination at the Globes sticks out like a sore thumb for me, in that they already knew she existed, and could have played along with giving her the nomination instead of Spencer.  That they didn't makes me wonder-is 20th Century Women playing too small?  Bening is also at risk in Best Actress, and movies in recent years have struggled in trying to gain late buzz by doing a "screeners and NY/LA only" strategy (just ask Selma and Cake).  I wonder if A24 badly underestimated people's desire to seek this film out without more buzz-it feels like the sort of picture that would have been much smarter in October.

1. Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)

For Him: Despite Aaron Taylor-Johnson randomly getting in with HFPA, Shannon actually got the bulk of the critics' praise for Tom Ford's latest.  More to the point, Michael Shannon just missed last year for 99 Homes, and was in pretty much every film that came out in 2016 (seriously-he made ten movies according to IMDB).  That sort of determination is sometimes rewarded (just ask Jessica Chastain), and this is his best shot of the ten.  The Supporting Actor field is still influx, and he's made it to the AMPAS dance before.
Against Him: The fact that Taylor-Johnson got a nomination at the Globes sort of makes me wonder if there's more ticket-splitting happening than expected.  Additionally, while I do think there's some vulnerability there, Jeff Bridges, Lucas Hedges, Mahershala Ali, Hugh Grant, and Dev Patel all look collectively like an Oscar lineup.  Hedges is young and Grant could lose vote from category confusion, but I totally buy them as a lineup.  That being said, if one falters, I think it's going to be Shannon who takes his place.