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| Dr. Amy Acton (D-OH) |
Governor: The Ohio governor's race, up until a few days ago, felt like one where the Democrats were probably going to win the race by a slim margin, maybe even seeing it go down in the final stretch as the increasingly Republican nature of the Buckeye State cost them. But after Vivek Ramaswamy (R) launched the worst self-inflicted October surprise I've seen in a while, that's all out. Some Republicans have claimed the ad featuring Dr. Amy Acton's (D) mother refusing to endorse her will play well with low-context voters, but they're deluding themselves (we've seen Ohio Republicans like Mike DeWine & Jon Husted criticize the ad for a reason), given that Acton's mother lost custody of both she and her brother after it was revealed that Acton's stepfather (her mother's husband) had raped her repeatedly. Ramaswamy's refusal to back down on this attack proves how truly heartless he is, and I expect an eleventh hour rally from Democrats to lock in for Acton, who will win a race she probably would've won anyway (but now with more ardent admirers & a bigger national following). D+1
Senate: Ramaswamy, though, has put the rest of the ticket at risk, forcing nominees to choose between him and common decency (and in both cases, potentially risk alienating voters on the finish line). This could impact the Senate race, pitting former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) against incumbent (appointed) Sen. Jon Husted. I was honestly toying with dropping this race for the Democrats as I have been to this dance with Ohio before, and Brown has not locked into 50%+1 as well as Acton in the post-Labor Day polls. But I also think he's leading by more than he did when he lost in 2024 and it's a more favorable environment, and I think he'll D+1 this race. This sets up a few notes. First, if (as predicted) Brown wins, he'll become a senator pretty much immediately given that appointed senators have to vacate seats for elected senators right away, giving Chuck Schumer a vote for the lame duck. Second, Brown will become the first person since Slade Gorton in 1988 to lose a Senate race as an incumbent and then win a subsequent race (it's very rare-before that it was Howard Metzenbaum in 1976...if you want to know the full history we actually did an article about it last year). And lastly, because it's an appointed seat, Brown will need to run for reelection right away in 2028; I assume he'll do that, but it'll be a much harder road, and will risk him repeating 2024 rather than 2026 (but that's a problem for the future...right now the focus is on a midterm win, which I think he gets).
House: Ohio's redrawn House districts really won't do much in the midterms. Greg Landsman & Emilia Sykes might be vulnerable in a red environment, but this isn't one, and while there is the possibility that Mike Carey and/or Mike Turner (the Ohio Mike's) go down, that's another Blue Tsunami situation that I can't pull the trigger on (late-breaking House polling, though, is giving me pause on if a blue tsunami could be in the works). That leaves two seats that I think are solid bets for flipping. The first is the 7th district, where Rep. Max Miller's allegations of abuse (he has been accused of throwing boiling water at his ex-wife, of breaking his 2-year-old daughter's collarbone, and had a restraining order put against him by former White House Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham, one of Miller's ex-girlfriends). This is a Trump +11 district, so that might not all matter, but I think it will, and City Councilman Brian Poindexter (D) will win as a result. The other seat is pitting Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D), the longest-serving woman in the US House, against former State Rep. Derek Merrin. I have had Kaptur losing the entire year-her moderate politics make it harder for Democrats to rally around her in the way they might Brown, and this is a pretty red district (Trump won it by nearly 11-points). But the national environment, and the blue-friendly backing of Ohio probably being a little stronger thanks to Acton/Brown...I'm going to go against what I initially thought here and think Kaptur barely hangs on in this race, which results in a D+1 (I do that with a lot of trepidation and little confidence, it's just a gut feeling).
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| Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK) |
Governor: With Gov. Kevin Stitt retiring (and quite unpopular), some national organizations have thrown cash at this race unexpectedly between former State Sen. Mike Mazzei (R) and House Minority Leader Cyndi Munson. I will note that this is an under-polled race, and in a Blue Tsunami it's the sort of random race that you'd look at: Munson is the rare A-tier candidate in Oklahoma, this is a state that has struggled disproportionately due to tariff & gas prices, and as a rule if a red state hasn't had a Democratic governor in a couple of decades (and isn't South Dakota) you should watch it in a wave as sometimes things surprise (mostly because voters eventually hit a breaking point with public education cuts). I don't expect this to flip (or be that close), but I am watching it is what I'm saying.
Senate: Sen. Markwayne Mullin became Homeland Security Secretary in March (succeeding Kristi Noem), and now-Sen. Alan Armstrong (R) is ineligible to run again due to a quirk in Oklahoma election laws that don't allow appointed senators to run for reelection. As a result, we'll get a new senator in Rep. Kevin Hern (R) when he takes this seat.
House: Similar to the Governor's race, in a Blue Tsunami you'd probably watch Rep. Stephanie Bice's (R) race not because she'll beat educator Jena Nelson, but because the margin could get interesting.
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| Gov. Tina Kotek (D-OR) |
Governor: One of the few Democratic-held seats on the map that feels genuinely at risk of flipping, Gov. Tina Kotek (D) is wildly unpopular and honestly if it were a redder race, I'd assume she'd be taken down by State Sen. Christine Drazan, who ran in 2022, and polling shows in striking distance of victory. At some point this seat is going to have to flip-the Democrats have had a series of unpopular governors, and even in blue states, that just doesn't hold forever. But I don't think it'll be this year, particularly with Trump in office and Drazan making some missteps (what the hell is she doing in the closing days of the campaign on Laura Ingraham in a state where she'll genuinely need thousands of Obama/Clinton/Biden/Harris voters to win?). Dems hold, but watch this space for 2030.
Senate: Truly wish Jeff Merkley had chosen 2026 to retire as it'd have been nice to have the House bench bottleneck break in a cycle where none of the seats were at risk of flipping, but alas, he held on (and will win another six years).
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| Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) |
Governor: Josh Shapiro (D) is going to win by margins we have not even seen before in his reelection campaign against Treasurer Stacy Garrity. Seriously-what was she thinking choosing 2026 to run a sure-loss campaign and not just waiting four years?
House: Pennsylvania is not billed nearly as often as states like Ohio, Texas, & Iowa as consequential for the 2026 congressional majorities because it doesn't have a sexy Senate race to headline, but four crucial Republican-held seats are going to be huge determinants in whether or not Hakeem Jeffries gets the Speaker's gavel. I think of the bunch the 7th district, where Union President Bob Brooks seems on track to best Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, is the top of the list, but close behind appears to be the 10th district, where Rep. Scott Perry (who nearly lost in 2024) will be taken down in a rematch by newscaster Janelle Stelson. I also think we're looking at a win for the Democrats in the 10th district, where Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti (D) will best Rep. Rob Bresnahan, possibly the only Democrat who could win this red seat (I think she'll be a tough hold in 2024), but she'll win regardless. Which leaves us with Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, the consistently popular Republican who is one of only three Republicans holding House seats won by Kamala Harris last cycle. Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie has run an excellent campaign, and honestly this would be the only cycle Fitzpatrick probably would ever go down...but I can't see it yet. Or at least, I won't predict it yet-at least one Harris Republican will remain in the next Congress. D+3
Rhode Island
Governor: The excitement in this race already happened earlier this year when Helena Foulkes, a corporate executive, beat the sitting Gov. Dan McKee (D) in a primary, and will soon succeed him as governor.
Senate: Jack Reed, a 36-year congressional fixture, will win reelection, and may well get back the Senate Armed Services gavel at this rate if Democrats can break through in the Senate.
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| Dr. Annie Andrews (D-SC) |
Governor: Weirdly, the open gubernatorial election here has gotten absolutely no political attention as Attorney General Alan Wilson gets a promotion.
Senate: This cannot be said for the Senate race, pitting appointed-Sen. Darline Graham (R), the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, against Dr. Annie Andrews, a pediatrician & 2022 House candidate. Andrews started this race as a reputable loser option, the kind of respectable candidate who maybe gets endorsed by Emily's List but doesn't go further & makes the party look okay for putting forward a competent adult, but she's been able to breakthrough mostly on the back of Graham's truly, aggressively bad political skills (which are apparently not inherited). It's clear at this point that Graham is coasting solely on hard-core Republicans not being able to vote for a Democrat, as no one really seems to like her or think she's capable of doing this job (and almost certainly is only going to serve one full term). Polling here has been close, but weirdly limited (for all of the polls in Florida, Ohio, & Texas, my kingdom for some pollster with an A-rating to head to the Palmetto State). I don't think Andrews can win, but I do think this is a race that, in a Blue Tsunami, we should be paying attention to, and if it's not called in the first half hour of election night the Democrats might have dropped the ball here.
House: The same can be said for the 1st district, which pitches County Councilwoman Jenny Honeycutt (R) against Vice Admiral Nancy Lacore (D) after Nancy Mace's failed bid for governor. Either way, I'll be glad to see Mace gone from the halls of Congress (her last few years in the House have been hard to watch), and I assume it'll be Honeycutt replacing her though there seems to be some momentum for Lacore.
South Dakota
Governor: Gov. Larry Rhoden fought off contenders from both his left and right to get the nomination for the GOP, and that's the general election in the Mount Rushmore State.
Senate: The Democrats are once again trying the "run a moderate Independent to avoid the party label" option with Lt. Colonel Brian Bengs (I), but I don't think it's going to work as well as it did in Nebraska, mostly because Sen. Mike Rounds (R) isn't close to as conservative as someone like a Pete Ricketts.
Tennessee
Governor: Like her colleague Amy Klobuchar, Sen. Marsha Blackburn will become the first woman ever elected in her state and will also get to appoint her successor (anyone know the gossip on whom she'll select?).
Senate: Sen. Bill Hagerty will easily win a second term here after declining a run against Blackburn in the gubernatorial primary.
House: A mid-decade gerrymander has ousted Rep. Steve Cohen, and will mean that Tennessee will have no Democratic representation in Congress probably for the first time since the founding of the party (by Andrew Jackson, a Tennessean). Truly heinous corruption of democracy given how blue Memphis & Nashville are, and now don't have a voice. R+1
1 comment:
Nice work, John. It'd be great if Fitzpatrick really does go down this time, but we'll see.
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