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| Activist Denise Powell (D-NE) |
Governor: The Democrats put up a decent candidate to face Gov. Jim Pillen in State Sen. Lynne Walz, who has done all right, and will probably post the best numbers for a Democrat in this state since Ben Nelson in 1994, but that won't be enough, even in a solid blue year.
Senate: If there's a flip statewide in Nebraska this cycle it's in the Senate, with Dan Osborn (I), who greatly outperformed Kamala Harris in 2024 against Sen. Deb Fischer. If you go off the polling aggregate here, Sen. Pete Ricketts is extremely vulnerable, only leading in most aggregates by about a point. But Democrats are not giving this the kind of attention they are other races, and I don't think it's because Osborn is an independent (I think it's because they know this is a reach-too-far). I think Ricketts hangs on, though I'll be honest-morbid curiosity has this as one of the upsets I'm most hoping for, mostly because Ricketts has said for two consecutive cycles he won't caucus with either party, and I'd be fascinated to see how that works as there's no real modern precedent for it, and I'm a political nerd who'd like to know the answer to how that would happen.
House: Possibly the likeliest flip of the cycle (toward the Democrats), even if the GOP had kept Rep. Don Bacon (R) in the 2nd district, it would've been a stretch. Without him, it seems impossible that Democratic activist Denise Powell won't end up as one of Hakeem Jeffries first votes for a majority in January. D+1
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| Gov. Joe Lombardo (R-NV) |
Governor: Nevada is one of the few states where you can actually get a solid read on who will win based on early vote, so reserving the right to change this, but despite the Democratic wave, I think Gov. Joe Lombardo should be able to over-perform the congressional ballot here and win reelection. I will note two things here: 1) in an actual wave, close races will frequently go to the lesser candidate, which in my opinion is AG Aaron Ford (who has not run a campaign that rose above the middle, which was needed against Lombardo) and 2) I am keeping a very close eye on the Lieutenant Governor race here, as Nevada is one of the few states that they elect them separately. Given the likelihood that Lombardo runs against Catherine Cortez Masto in 2028 if there's a Republican LG, it'd behoove Dems to win at least the back half of the ticket as part of the wave. (John Note: I did, in fact, change my mind here based on the early voting in Nevada, and think that Ford will win...this was edited before the election so it still counts for my final prediction D+1).
House: Every cycle there's one longshot race that catches my eye. In my opinion, NV-2 is that race. Pretty much every person seems to think this flirts between Lean/Likely Republican, but it has all of the recipes of an upset. It's a seat Trump won by less than 15-points (thanks entirely to it having Washoe County as part of its makeup), and I do think there's the real possibility that it flips. But I haven't seen the numbers I think I'd need to see to safely guess that, so I'm going to skip it (for now).
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| Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) |
Governor: Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R), after going down during the 2016 Trump loss in New Hampshire but surviving in the 2024 Trump loss, should be fine running for reelection. I wouldn't be surprised if she starts getting more national press as the 2028 primaries heat up.
Senate: Rep. Chris Pappas (D) drew a decent opponent in former Sen John Sununu (R), but he got the right cycle to be kind of a middling, backbench congressman who pushes for the Senate. He'll win (and become the first openly gay man to serve in the Senate), but I do wonder what he'll be like in office given his campaign has left something to be desired.
New Jersey
Senate: Sen. Cory Booker at this point is probably never going to be president (though I give it 50/50 odds he runs in 2028), and one wonders if (at age 57) he might have waited a bit too long to try and fight Brian Schatz for Democratic Senate Leader. But as it is, he'll surely win another term to sort through it.
House: I will admit I don't buy the "Jeff van Drew might lose the 2nd this cycle" buzz, and Nellie Pou (after the 9th shockingly went red in 2024) will have no issue given the environment. But the big news here is Tom Kean, Jr. (R), whose bizarre public behavior that was later revealed to be him being hospitalized for clinical depression, still for some reason ran for reelection, and will lose this swingy (Trump won in 2024, as did Mikie Sherrill a year later) district to National Guard Officer Rebecca Bennett. D+1
New Mexico
Governor: With Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) retiring, it seems certain that we will have the first Native American woman to ever run a state with former Interior Secretary & Rep. Deb Haaland winning the position. This will be only the second time (after Massachusetts in 2022) that an all-female gubernatorial ticket will win (Haaland is running with Public Lands Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard.
Senate: So far Sen. Ben Ray Lujan (who before he ran for the upper chamber I had pegged as a possible successor to Nancy Pelosi) hasn't made many waves in his first term, but will still get a second.
House: Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D) will probably go down in there's ever a proper red wave again (maybe 2030), but this is not the cycle he loses the 2nd.
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| Officer Christopher Gallant (D-NY) |
Governor: Few governors have come into their own quite like Gov. Kathy Hochul, who had a tough scrape four years ago but will cruise this cycle, has. I do think we need to look at the Empire State long-term, as the upstate trends here aren't great, but for now it's not a concern.
House: I also think long-term trends in Long Island need to be examined a bit, but both Tom Suozzi & Laura Gillen should be okay with the blue wave at their back (we need Suozzi to stay in office as long as possible at this point as this seat is moving away from the Democrats). There is some evidence that NY-21 could flip this cycle, given that Rep. Elise Stefanik has left it open, and honestly if there's a tsunami this is the type of seat that posts a one-term wonder. I will be watching the results of the NY-1 race mostly out of curiosity, as Christopher Gallant (an absurdly handsome national guard officer & volunteer fireman who also has a history of modeling for BDSM photos), but he's not going to win. The only race I think is truly at risk is NY-17, one of only three seats won by Kamala Harris that the Republicans hold right now in the House. Democrats & Republicans alike hold two-term Rep. Mike Lawler's political skills in high-esteem, but I don't think he's special enough to beat back a wave, and so I'll go D+1 with Iraq War veteran Cait Conley ousting him (I wouldn't be surprised if Lawler seeks a rematch in 2028 if he goes down though).
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| Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) |
Senate: One of the most striking things about this cycle's Senate campaign is that there's only one absolute, no arguments flip on the calendar. With Sen. Thom Tillis (R) retiring after two terms, the DSCC got exactly the right candidate in former Gov. Roy Cooper (D), who is cruising to reelection in this seat and will get Democrats their fastest D+1 in the upper chamber.
House: In what will surely go down as a great example of a dummymander, a mid-decade map drawn to oust Rep. Don Davis (D in the 1st) not only will not oust Davis, it will also take with it the 11th district, where the retirement of scandal-plagued Rep. Chuck Edwards (R) seemed like the Republicans had honestly avoided disaster with State Rep. Jennifer Balkcom, but instead it appears Balkcom is going to lose (Republicans have already started to triage the race) in favor of businessman Jamie Ager. D+1
North Dakota
House: This race isn't actually competitive, but North Dakota has no other races & it felt weird to skip it, so kudos to Julie Fedorchak, the first woman to represent North Dakota in the House, for getting another term.
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