I am doing a final predictions series for the November 5th general elections. If you've missed previous articles, they're listed right here: Alabama-Arkansas, California-Hawaii, Idaho-Louisiana, Maine-Montana
(Note: I'll be doing commentary on every race for Governor & Senate regardless of level-of-competitiveness. I'll only do mentions for the House if I assume it'll be competitive in some way-if the House race isn't listed, I'm assuming an easy hold for the incumbent party)
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| Dan Osborn (I-NE) |
President: There was a last-minute push by local Republicans (aided in part by Sen. Lindsey Graham) to make the state's "allotment by congressional district" rule end in 2024, which would've made Kamala Harris's best path (the Blue Wall) impossible as she'd be one vote short. That didn't pass, and as a result we're going to get a repeat of what happened in 2020 (4 for the R's, 1 electoral vote for the D's), albeit I could see NE-2 being a bit bluer both because it's the kind of urban, college-educated district that Harris will do better in than Biden and because Democrats in the district are pissed.
Senate: Fun fact-there are two Senate elections in Nebraska this year due to the early retirement of Ben Sasse (who didn't even last two years as President of the University of Florida, so a weird retirement given he's only 52). Sen. Pete Ricketts (the former governor), was appointed to one seat and will finally get to live his dream of winning a US Senate election this year after losing by an embarrassing number in 2006 to Ben Nelson. But the other Senate seat-that is an interesting one. Sen. Deb Fischer (R) should be cruising to a third term, but polls show her not only in a tight race, but in many cases losing to Independent candidate Dan Osborn. This is Osborn's first time on a ballot, a Navy veteran and industrial mechanic who has run a rare campaign-one where he has not been forced to take a political side. I will be predicting Fischer because I have been to this dance before with Greg Orman & Al Gross and I know we don't end up going home together, but on the off-chance Osborn wins, this will become the big story in the weeks to come if Harris wins the White House, as there's a very real chance he would be the only thing standing between her and a trifecta.
House: The big story in Nebraska in terms of tangible results will be in the House. The rematch race between Rep. Don Bacon (R) and State Sen. Tony Vargas (D) was always going to be close, but I think Republicans royally screwed up in calling attention to the presidential election, and in particular, Bacon endorsing the change to the electoral college allocation. Bacon wasn't successful in that, and I think it was the cherry on top of an already tough election in an increasingly blue district. Vargas flips the district, getting the Dems a D+1.
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| Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) |
President: There are a few contests on here I will note I write in advance (currently I am finishing this article on October 25th). This is one I would like to double underline it on, as I will probably not make this prediction before Jon Ralston's final weigh-in. Ralston is proof that people who are obnoxious online (seriously-the guy is almost impossible to follow on social media he trolls so heavily) can also be incredibly competent, as he is very good at predicting elections in Nevada. Right now, early voting data shows that Republicans are doing well in Nevada, and while I am loathe to predict based on early voting data, I have been worried the floor will fall out in Nevada at some point given the state's low education rates and large numbers of rural white voters (both demographics that have been moving to the right). Much of its blue strength comes from unions in the Las Vegas and Reno areas, which are harder for Democrats to count on as time goes on. I am therefore going to do something I wouldn't have done a week ago-I'm going to predict Trump gets the victory in the Silver State. I don't like doing this because I feel like I am not doing it based on polling (Harris has a slim lead), and therefore (even if I tell myself I'm not) this is driven by early voting data that could change (or just be wrong). But I've ignored my gut on a few of these calls, and I'm not going to here. R+1
Senate: I will not be buying that Republicans are going to be able to sneak in last minute in any other seats, though. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) has led by double digits this entire cycle over Republican Sam Brown (who lost the 2022 Senate election). You're not going to be able to erase that this late, even if a 5-point victory is far likelier than the double digits Rosen is posting in polls.
House: The same with the three House seats. Republicans didn't really try here, neither side are putting up a challenge, and so Susie Lee, Dina Titus, and Steven Horsford should get wins, though if Trump actually wins in Nevada, I wouldn't doubt that in 2026 we'll see a major push against these three from the NRCC.
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| Mayor Joyce Craig (D-NH) |
President: The Granite State used to be a much more competitive locale in federal elections (just ask Al Gore, who would be president if he'd won it), but there's no indication that it's at risk this cycle, and Harris should get an easy victory.
Governor: The big question for me is in the governor's race. Polling has shown that former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) has a slight lead here, though that could be a result of name recognition and a late primary (the cavalry didn't come in for Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) until the last second as a result). Here's the deal-after four terms of Chris Sununu, my hunch is that a state as blue as New Hampshire goes back to form and elects a Democrat. Barring a catastrophe of a candidate (see North Carolina) that's usually what happens in these circumstances. I would love to say that with the confidence of polling, because Ayotte's polling numbers are good & would normally be enough to convince me she's winning, but there's only been one major poll in the past few weeks, and it's from a company that favors Republicans. I'm therefore going to predict what might count as an upset at this point and go with Craig for what will be the only gubernatorial flip this cycle. D+1
House: There was a lot of talk about Republicans going after one of these seats at the beginning of the cycle, but Chris Pappas and newcomer Maggie Goodlander should be able to hold both of these seats for the Democrats. Kudos to retiring Rep. Annie Kuster for knowing how to give Goodlander some incumbency before this would be theoretically more competitive in 2026.
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| Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-NJ) |
President: Every four years, online Republicans convince themselves that they might be able to win New Jersey, and every four years it ends the same-with the Garden State being called moments after polls close. Charlie Brown ain't kicking the football this year either. Harris hold.
Senate: Democrats will also win the Senate seat, and while it won't technically be a pickup, it might feel like one. After years of progressives begging NJ Democrats to get rid of Bob Menendez for someone better (me...I am those progressives who hated Menendez), we will finally get our wish as Rep. Andy Kim will replace, well, not technically Menendez who recently resigned (George Helmy is currently serving as the senator from the state). Menendez's views on Cuban policy might make that a potentially underrated issue the next Democratic trifecta will revisit (he was a prime reason that it wasn't lifted). It's also worth noting that while legally he's not required to, Helmy has indicated that once the election is certified he will resign early so that Kim can gain seniority in the next Congress, though the timing will certainly be coordinated to maximize Chuck Schumer's ability to get lame-duck judges confirmed.
House: Every year there is at least one House seat I'm flinging my laptop over because the DCCC isn't spending enough money there, and this cycle is New Jersey's 7th. This is a seat that Kamala Harris will probably win (Biden took it by 4-points), and there is a possibility that Rep. Tom Kean (R), given too much incumbency, will turn into another Brian Fitzpatrick (a Republican who holds on no matter what, even in a blue seat) if we don't beat him this cycle. But the DCCC hasn't funded Sue Altman for reasons that are beyond me, and you can't win a race like this without money-Kean will get another term, and possibly be too hard to beat going forward.
New Mexico
President: Similar to Nevada, I do want to watch New Mexico long-term to see if college-education rates (these are the two least college-educated Biden states) will hurt the Democrats long-term, but that's not a concern in 2024. Harris wins, maybe not at poll close but within 30 minutes of it.
Senate: Sen. Martin Heinrich has run an actual campaign this cycle, which is why I brought up the 30 minutes comment, but he too should be fine and win a third term in the Senate.
House: The one race that felt like it was truly competitive is New Mexico's second congressional district, but polling shows that Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D) should be fine holding this Biden 6-point district (which is clearly a gerrymander, but an effective one). Yvette Herrell is running for the fourth consecutive time here, and has only been successful once (in 2020). I would assume this will be the last shot the GOP gives her.
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| Laura Gillen (D-NY) |
President: I am curious on the margin here. Polling has indicated that New York could be redder in 2024 than it was in 2020. In a zero sum game like the electoral college, that won't matter (Harris will get an easy double digit win), but I want to see how much ground (and where) she loses in the state because it will impact the national popular vote. For the long-term chances of the Democrats in New York, it would behoove them to run better politicians than Kathy Hochul & Eric Adams to administer their state.
Senate: Kirsten Gillibrand's presidential dreams went up in smoke in 2000, but she will continue to have an easy career in the US Senate, and likely will be DSCC Chair in 2026.
House: I had been begging for more polling in New York House races for months, and I finally got some recently, and it was unusually sunny for the Democrats. This is going to shift a few thing around for me. I will say with confidence that both Tom Suozzi (3rd) and Pat Ryan (18th) get their reelections (remember that Suozzi won earlier this year, so Democrats already have a House flip under their belts in 2024). I will also guess that the Democrats get their two easiest flips-a redraw of the maps made a win for Rep. Brandon Williams (22nd) impossible against State Sen. John Mannion, and Rep. Anthony D'Esposito in the 4th district got the bluest House seat in the country currently held by a Republican, so Laura Gillen successfully pulls off her rematch. Some will want me to point out the 1st district but Nick LaLota should be fine (even if it's close). The big question for me is around the 17th, where Republican Rep. Mike Lawler is running against former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D), and the 19th, where Rep. Marc Molinaro is in a rematch against attorney Josh Riley. Lawler's district is much bluer (it went for Biden by 10-points while Molinaro's only did by a little more than 4-points), but he's led in polling while Molinaro has struggled. I think part of that is Mondaire Jones had to move to get into this district (he attempted, unsuccessfully to run in a different district), and that is hurting him; also, Lawler is the better of the two Republican politicians, and Jones is too liberal for a seat like this. I was initially going to call Republicans for both seats, but I'm going to change my mind here too-I think while Lawler hangs on, Riley gets one of the night's bigger upsets and we end up D+3 in the Empire State.
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| Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R-NC) |
President: We're at the 5th of the 7 big Swing States, and the only one that Donald Trump won in 2020. This should, conceivably, be a good sign for Trump. After all, he's doing better nationally than he was in 2020, and so you'd think he could hold all of his cards. That's not how elections work though. I would bet money that North Carolina will not be the reddest of the seven swing states this year. It has given Harris a stronger position in polling in 2024 than Arizona or Georgia, and it's hard not to wonder if Hurricane Helene might impact the disproportionately red areas of the state that were devastated recently (it was tacky of David Axelrod to point this out as a campaign strategy, but it's a reality that might be happening right now if you look at it objectively). I will ultimately guess Trump, but I don't feel good about that. Similar to Arizona, I think Harris's chances are being under-estimated here because of the assumption that Trump "must" be under-polled since he was in 2016 & 2020. But I haven't seen enough to indicate he won't win, just that he's being over-favored to win here.
Governor: A lot of candidates could wear this crown, but if I gave out the prize for the single worst candidate in a major race this year, it'd have to be Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R), who has had everything from raunchy porn comments to being a self-proclaimed "Nazi" (truthfully) levied at him this cycle. I think for people like Ruben Gallego & Jacky Rosen, while they'll win, the double digit leads they've been posting are going to disappear when actual voting starts, but here...if Josh Stein wins by 10+ points, I wouldn't be stunned.
House: The primary reason the House Republicans have any chance at all for the majority this cycle is in the Tarheel State. A statewide gerrymander, triggered by Democrats not being able to hold their Supreme Court majority, allowed three incumbent Democrats (Wiley Nickel, Kathy Manning, & Jeff Jackson in the 13th, 6th, & 14th districts, respectively) to be drawn into impossible districts, and none are running for reelection (though Jackson is running for Attorney General, likely setting up an election against Sen. Ted Budd in 2028 if he wins). All three will go red pretty quickly, giving the Republicans a huge gain. There's a fourth district that could be competitive in the 1st district, but polling shows that both Kamala Harris and Rep. Don Davis (D) should hold onto this swing seat (in 2024, at least), so we'll go with R+3 out of North Carolina.
North Dakota
President: Donald Trump will keep his matching set of Dakota's this year.
Governor: A retiring Doug Burgum, whom I still wonder if Trump wishes was his running-mate, will lead the way for Rep. Kelly Armstrong to become the state's new governor, extending a losing streak for Democrats in the North Dakota governor's mansion since 1988.
Senate: Six years ago, Sen. Kevin Cramer was beating an incumbent Democratic Senator (Heidi Heitkamp). This year, I doubt even the DSCC Chair could name his opponent.
House: Obviously not a close race, but with Armstrong running for governor, I wanted to note the historical nature of soon-to-be congresswoman Julie Fedorchak's candidacy. Fedorchak will become the first woman elected to the House from North Dakota, which will leave just Mississippi as the only state never to elect a woman to the lower chamber.
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