I am doing a final predictions series for the November 5th general elections. If you've missed previous articles, they're listed right here: Alabama-Arkansas, California-Hawaii, Idaho-Louisiana
(Note: I'll be doing commentary on every race for Governor & Senate regardless of level-of-competitiveness. I'll only do mentions for the House if I assume it'll be competitive in some way-if the House race isn't listed, I'm assuming an easy hold for the incumbent party)
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| Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) |
President: Maine is one of only two states in the union that split their votes by congressional district, so we will see three votes for Harris, and then the 2nd congressional district will go to Donald Trump. I do think that Nebraska & Maine will have a lot of national pressure, especially if Harris wins 270-268 (a very real possibility if she only holds the Blue Wall of the swing states but no other of the 7) to abandon this strategy in 2028, but for now no change from what we saw in 2020.
Senate: I have talked about how Angus King, who turned 80 in March, is too old to be running for yet another term & the Democrats are risking another Feinstein situation in a state where we could easily have afforded to run an open seat, but that didn't happen, and so King will win again (holding for the Democrats...for now).
House: Perhaps no one wished that King would abandon his post more than Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME). Golden is one of just five Democrats running for reelection in Trump districts, and he is doing so against former NASCAR driver and state representative Austin Theriault (completely inappropriate side note, but between Golden & Theriault, this is easily the best-looking congressional race of the cycle). Golden had the advantage of ranked-choice voting in past elections, but that won't help him in 2024 as there's only a write-in candidate running. I think Trump's strength and Theriault being a quality candidate are going to be too much, and Golden's young political career falters, though I wouldn't be shocked if he still made a play for Governor or Senate in 2026. R+1
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| County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) |
President: Maryland is consistently one of the bluest states in the nation, and will continue to be for Kamala Harris. One of those states that will be called within milliseconds of the polls closing.
Senate: I have talked exhaustively about this race on both social media and this blog, so you all know I have not been shy about my support for Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, who overcame a huge fundraising deficit and a polling gap to win the primary earlier this year against Rep. Dave Trone. Some thought this would end up being a close race, as the one truly impressive NRSC recruit of the cycle (former Gov. Larry Hogan) was leading Alsobrooks at one point, but like it has for so many (Linda Lingle, Bob Kerrey, Phil Bredesen...you're about to have a new member in the club), the state's natural tendencies shown through, and Alsobrooks now looks to be headed to a double digit victory, and a spot as only the third African-American woman elected to the US Senate.
House: The only remotely close election is the 6th congressional district, a seat that Joe Biden won by just shy of 10-points that is open due to Trone running for the Senate. April McClain-Delaney (D), who briefly worked in the Biden administration and is the wife of former Rep. John Delaney (remember his presidential bid?!?), is running a lousy campaign against State Del. Neil Parrott, but honestly it won't matter in a seat this blue. I've said this a few times through these articles, but if a President Harris faces a brutal midterm in 2026, this is a race to watch, but for now...Democrats should have no issues.
Massachusetts
President: One of the most consistently blue states in the nation, the Bay State will give an easy win to Harris-Walz.
Senate: 12 years after she unseated Sen. Scott Brown, Elizabeth Warren is running for what (likely) will be her last at bat for public office given she will turn 80 during her next term.
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| Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) |
President: We get to the third of the Big 7 Swing States, and the first of the three states that make up the hallowed "Blue Wall" which cost Hillary Clinton the White House in 2016, and was the bedrock on which Joe Biden won the Oval Office back in 2020. Of all of the swing states, this is the one that appears to be the toughest for Donald Trump. He barely won it in 2016 (I have said this many times, but while Wisconsin & Pennsylvania may have been a challenge, if Hillary had known she might lose Michigan, she certainly would've won it with some effort), and it gave Biden his healthiest margin in 2020. Though some have pointed out the unusually high Arab-American population in Dearborn, MI, might pose a problem for Kamala Harris, I don't buy that. Gretchen Whitmer actually saw a decrease relative to the state in Deaborn despite a much bigger victory in 2022 than in 2018. The victory here happens in both the Detroit metro as well as Grand Rapids, Ann Arbor, & Lansing, all of which I think Harris is able to get a win from. I will therefore predict the first of the swing states I expect the Democrats to hold from 2020 to be the Wolverine State.
Senate: At some point Mitch McConnell will write a book, and while most of it will be nonsense where he claims he tried to stop Trump (he didn't), I am far more curious why he didn't invest in Michigan. The race, pitting former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) and sitting Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) has been ignored for quixotic contests in Pennsylvania & Maryland, but the open nature of the seat makes it a far more intriguing choice (and honestly a weird throwback to a 1990's style race where both teams brought out decent, non-controversial candidates). Slotkin hasn't run a perfect campaign, but she's run the better campaign, and has led in most polling. I think she wins, holding this seat, and Republicans regret it deeply when they realize that they were never going to take Pennsylvania or Maryland, but might've beaten Slotkin, who will have the advantage of incumbency next time she's up.
House: I don't entirely know what to do here. Polling has been scant in the 10th district, but I do think Rep. John James (R) ultimately hangs on in the 10th, but by a close enough margin that the DCCC gets crucified for not spending more here. In the open 7th & 8th, though, I struggle to know what to do. The 8th is slightly bluer (it's the median district in the country, actually), and State Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D) feels the better candidate against news anchor Paul Junge, so I'm going to go with her even though she's never actually led in (very) limited polling. In the 7th (Slotkin's district), this is much closer (Biden won the district by half a percentage point, though Slotkin won it in 2022 by 5-points). I was initially going to predict McDonald Rivet & Junge, but growing sheepishness from the Republicans has made me think that they have lost confidence in Michigan, and if they have, Harris probably wins both these open seats, and I don't see a lot of argument as to why they don't take it down-ballot too. I do this reluctantly, but I think Democrats take both now.
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| Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) |
President: Minnesota has the longest current blue streak of any state in America (having turned down Ford, Reagan, Trump, and both Bush's), and with a favorite son on the ticket, that ain't ending this year. Put 10 more on the board for Harris (and Tim Walz!)
Senate: Amy Klobuchar, for the first time in her career, will not win all of the congressional districts this cycle (in her last three elections, she has won every single district in Minnesota every time). She will likely only take four (maybe five), but of course that should be enough for a very safe reelection.
House: Rep. Angie Craig's polling hasn't been as good as it should be, but honestly it won't matter (she'll still win), and truly-this is where polling feels like it's missing something in 2024, as Craig's district is tailor-made for Harris (college-educated, affluent, suburban)...I think this district gets bluer than it was in 2020.
Mississippi
President: We're back to Trump territory both for the electoral college...
Senate: ...and for the Senate. Roger Wicker will not win by a huge margin in the very polarized state (I doubt he cracks 15-points), but he'll still win without issue.
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| Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) |
President: The Show-Me State hasn't been competitive since 2008 on a presidential level, and will continue its blood red streak by giving Trump a third consecutive victory.
Senate: Sen. Josh Hawley will win a second term after a somewhat surprising initial victory six years ago, and I'm sure he & Harrison Butker will have a great time celebrating his win.
House: This won't be competitive-Rep. Ann Wagner (R) will easily win the 2nd district, but I am curious by how much, and more so, I'm curious how much Kamala Harris will lose by. Missouri's 2nd district is one of the few districts in the country with a 50% college education rate that still votes Republican, and it has the kinds of voters (thanks in part to Wagner refusing to gerrymander because she worried about a primary challenge from her right) that will turn to Kamala Harris. This is a seat that I could see Harris making huge inroads on Trump's 8-point win in 2020...maybe even flirting with winning the seat herself (even if her party won't beat Wagner).
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| Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) |
President: Again, Montana hasn't been competitive for the White House since 2008, and it ain't stopping now.
Governor: Gov. Greg Gianforte will get a knockout victory in his quest for a second term...let's just hope that isn't literal given his past proclivity for violence.
Senate: Six years ago Jon Tester watched many of his colleagues (Joe Donnelly, Heidi Heitkamp, Bill Nelson, & Claire McCaskill) unable to outrun the inevitable-their states were simply getting too red for them to hang on to in a world without ticket-splitting. We got six years out of Tester thanks to Matt Rosendale's incompetence, but against Tim Sheehy, Tester will be going down with the ship. R+1, and as someone who has donated to all four of Tester's Senate campaigns (maybe the only candidate other than Sherrod Brown I can claim I've given to four times), I say that with a genuinely broken heart. I'll be pouring one out for Sen. Tester in a few days.
House: There's been a lot of scuttle about Rep. Ryan Zinke being vulnerable in the first district, but while Tester might win the 1st, the Democrats won't be able to do so elsewhere, and Zinke should be fine. This is a seat to watch if we have a President Trump midterm in 2026, though, as Biden only lost it in 2020 by 7-points.
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