Krysten Sinema Retires: Her Legacy (and What Could Happen in Its Wake)

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ)

We have not done an article about Mitch McConnell's retirement as Senate leader yet, and I honestly will probably wait on that to see where he lands in terms of a Trump endorsement (which feels inevitable, even though Trump led a violent horde onto the Capitol to go after McConnell) and where the leadership race lands (if it will indeed be a battle of the three John's, or whether Trump has the political will to insert himself and get someone more loyal to his cause into the race like Rick Scott or Mike Lee).  This is my way of saying that Mitch McConnell is on the final chapter of his story in public life, but we don't yet know how it will end.

But today, we found out how one of his colleagues in the Senate, Kyrsten Sinema, will end her time in public life.  Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) announced earlier today that she would retire from the Senate, leaving the body at the end of her term which expires in January.  Sinema's time in the Senate has been eventful for a woman that was elected to great celebration in November 2018, the first Democrat in a generation to win a Senate seat from Arizona.  But the six years that followed involved some of the most confusing (even for a politician) times that I've seen in my decades of observing the behaviors of congressional goings-on.

Sinema, it should always be noted, is largely a career politician.  This sometimes gets lost in her rhetoric, but the Arizona State graduate has held public office since she was 28-years-old, almost twenty years.  She worked on the Ralph Nader campaign in 2000 before becoming a Democrat who adamantly stood against the Iraq War, even protesting the Joe Lieberman presidential campaign in 2004; you can see video of her complaining about Lieberman in 2010 in the wake of Scott Brown's Senate victory talking about Lieberman having stopped progress during the earliest days of the Obama administration.  She ran for the US House in 2012, shifting to a more moderate profile, but most (including me) assumed that she was a pretty smart, savvy politician, one whose meteoric rise to win an Arizona Senate race (a white whale situation for Democrats for so many years) indicated a politician of rare talent.

Sinema, to her credit is a talented politician.  She is well-known for her ability to negotiate deals across-the-aisle, and if you ever see her interviewed properly (not when she's doing her schtick), she's not dumb.  For all of the criticisms about her appearance & mannerisms (she wears unconventional outfits that stood out in the traditional Senate, and she frequently defied expectations of a member of Congress, appearing eccentric or rude in public), she generally does well in policy conversations, particularly when she used to give public speeches.  I've seen her speak in person (specifically about immigration)-she's quite impressive in the way she can mix policy, candor, and humor into her public speaking style.

But Sinema decided to throw away her career, and it's not entirely clear why.  For the past four years, Sinema has been mentioned in the same breadth as Joe Manchin, but there are big differences between the two, and not just in terms of their politics.  Manchin, for all of his faults, was a miracle, someone who won a seat the Democrats had no business winning (the only recent thing remotely comparable was Doug Jones, and that special election victory saved the ACA).  Manchin won a seat in a state that Donald Trump won by 40-points...that's the equivalent of Lisa Murkowski winning a House seat in Portland, Oregon (basically, impossible).  That Manchin was elected, and able to deliver for Chuck Schumer on things like the Inflation Reduction Act and the American Rescue Act (not to mention allowing Ketanji Brown Jackson to get into the Supreme Court, which would've been impossible without him)...every Democrat can just shut up about Manchin, we won the lottery with him.

But Sinema?  She deserved to be called the pain in the ass that she was, even if she also made those bills possible.  Manchin is a unicorn, Sinema is not.  People like Mark Kelly & Jon Ossoff represent states like Kyrsten Sinema do, and they don't cause this type of pain (Sherrod Brown & Jon Tester represent redder states and they don't have this problem).  And the weirdest part is-Sinema isn't that conservative.  Yes, on fiscal issues (specifically tax-related issues) she's to the right of her caucus (including Manchin).  But she voted with Joe Biden 94% of the time, higher than not only Joe Manchin, but also Jacky Rosen & Jon Tester.  Her ability to attract ire is twofold-she held an unnatural obsession with the filibuster (which, let's be real-will not survive the decade...it'll be lucky to last the next Congress, so this was an exercise in futility that accomplished nothing), and she needed to be contrary in the public.  Tester & Rosen make their complaints to Chuck Schumer privately.  Joe Manchin did it publicly, yes, but that was part of an elaborate act similar to what Susan Collins does in Maine to look moderate while still being a pretty reliable vote.  But Sinema-she didn't need to do this, and unlike Joe Manchin, she is not special & we didn't need to put up with her temper tantrums (knowing we can't do better).  Another Democrat can win Arizona, and in 2022 Mark Kelly & Katie Hobbs did just that.  In a world where Sinema saw the writing on the wall about the filibuster (which Manchin was going to hold up for her anyway), and told Schumer her concerns rather than the press, she'd be on-track for another Senate term, even if she keeps her exact voting record.  This was preventable, and what she got out of it by throwing away a promising career...I'll never know (and given how evasive she is, I doubt the inevitable memoir will be much clearer).  But I want on the record-this didn't have to happen, and no matter what crap she says about the Democratic Party moving too far to the left for her, this was a her problem.

It's worth noting a couple of things this announcement causes.  Arizona was a tossup for the Senate before this, and will be a tossup again afterward, albeit a more conventional open purple seat race between failed gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake & Rep. Ruben Gallego.  Gallego is much more liberal than your average Arizona politician (though, if we're being honest, given how Katie Hobbs has governed from a progressive perspective, he's pretty in-line with her), while Lake is much more conservative than those Republicans who have been successful here recently.  Both will try hard to get Sinema's share of the vote, which was paltry but will be highly valuable (and decide who wins the election).  I doubt Sinema endorses (either for POTUS or Senate), but her endorsement would not be without value.

Sinema also closes the final asterisk on the Democratic ability to get past the filibuster.  While some current senators have expressed trepidation about totally upending the filibuster (Angus King & Jacky Rosen specifically), every sitting Democratic Senator (save Sinema & Manchin) have expressed openness to upending filibuster at least in part.  Every Democrat in an open or GOP-held blue/purple (or even pink) race is on record to overturn (in full or part) the filibuster; I checked public statements and Adam Schiff, Katie Porter, Lisa Blunt Rochester, Dave Trone, Angela Alsobrooks, Elissa Slotkin, Colin Allred, & Debbie Mucarsel-Powell have all called for filibuster reform and/or elimination.  That means that, if the Democrats get a trifecta, you are in a situation where you could pass possibly the single most progressive series of bills (economic, social, judicial...you name it) since the New Deal.  It is oftentimes said that "this is the most important election of your lifetime"...I'll add to that by saying if the Democrats can figure out a way to win all three branches of government (a steep, but achievable lift), it would be the most consequential election of our lifetime.  It's unclear if Democrats realize just how close they are to having a once-in-a-century opportunity to reshape American life (or whether they will realize in time for them to actually pull it off), but with Sinema no longer an issue, it's clearly a chance there for the taking.