While we have had weeks of presidential primaries already, yesterday kicked off congressional primary season for 2024. Five states (Alabama, Arkansas, California, North Carolina, & Texas) had their down-ballot primaries last night (in addition to it being Super Tuesday on a presidential level), and that shaped several contests for later this year, including a de facto coronation of California's next senator, and set up a couple of House elections that will be of critical importance to who wins the House majority in November. If you're new here, I usually give a "five thoughts" morning-after article when it comes to primaries like this, so we're going to dive into the biggest takeaways I had from last night.
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| Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) |
The biggest news in terms of who will be leading in Washington next year came in California, where Rep. Adam Schiff became the sole Democrat to advance to the Senate general election (the Golden State has a top two primary system, regardless of party) alongside Republican Steve Garvey. California saw a slight turn red in 2022, but even assuming that holds, it is one of the bluest states in the nation, and will easily give Schiff a victory. Schiff's election means that California, which in 1993 became the first state in the Union to have two female senators, will not have any in January. For months, it wasn't clear whether or not Garvey would advance or whether Schiff's House colleague Katie Porter would, the latter setting off an expensive race for a safe blue seat. Those dollars will hopefully be spent elsewhere now (Schiff's fundraising was insane, and I hope he has the good sense to share some of that money with his current & future colleagues to help Democrats' take majorities in November), but I will totally own that I was backing Porter in this race, and this is a disappointment (I wear an independent political analyst hat in these articles, but I'm not going to pretend I don't have preferences). Porter has been a rare talent in the House, with an ability to attract support from Millennials & Gen Z with her straight-forward approach (i.e. her famous white board), and given that 23% of American parents are single-parent households, it would've been cool to see a single parent in the Senate so it would look a bit more like America. But Schiff will be a reliable Democratic vote, and a safe victor in California (and hopefully a second Biden term would involve Porter in some way).
The only other Senate primary of note was in Texas, where Rep. Colin Allred officially became the Democratic nominee, which was largely expected though he did have a challenge from State Sen. Roland Gutierrez. Texas remains a reach seat for the Democrats, but it's now a reach seat with an A-tier recruit, a sitting House incumbent who defeated a Republican congressman to win in 2018. If Biden's fortunes improve into the summer, this will be a race I keep my eye on.
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| Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) |
We're not going to focus much on the nearly-completed presidential primary (news is breaking as I'm writing this that Haley will suspend her race later today, though it sounds like she won't officially endorse Donald Trump yet). But she will do so having won a state last night. Haley won the state of Vermont, meaning that Donald Trump will not have won all fifty states (something Joe Biden will be able to claim, though he somehow lost American Samoa last night in the weirdest election result I've seen in a while), and that will leave Al Gore as the only non-incumbent to win every state in a presidential primary, depriving Trump of that title. Haley continued to over-perform polls last night, a streak we have seen all year where Trump's support is softer-than-expected based on public polling. This isn't unusual (presidential primary polling is not as reliable as polling for congressional primaries and certainly for presidential general elections), but it is curious that every single one of these polls has underestimated Trump by so much. And it is worth noting that it wasn't just "independents and Democrats" driving Haley's victory-she got 16% in Oklahoma, a state with a closed primary so those were all Republican voters actively choosing not to vote for Trump.
Otherwise, the only other noteworthy result last night was a disappointing result for Joe Biden in Minnesota, which some pundits were saying was important, and I will just say-it was not important. Anecdotally, I was all over the Twin Cities yesterday and didn't see an "I Voted" sign on anyone but me (numbers were low for a state that regularly leads the nation in voter turnout), and Minnesota's unusual progressive politics streak (and position as the home state of Dean Phillips) was always going to present a challenge to Biden, particularly as he didn't spend here. I don't think that his performance (which was still better than Trump's) is a sign that Minnesota is competitive in November.
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| Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R-NC) |
North Carolina's gubernatorial primaries were not at all competitive, but they do officially set up the most important governor's race this fall. The swing state (which, it has to be said, also showed signs of strength for Haley in suburban counties around Raleigh & Charlotte which it would behoove Joe Biden's team to milk for all they're worth) will feature a race between Attorney General Josh Stein (D) and Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R). I know that Democrats have gotten desensitized to Republican extremism, but I have to be real-Robinson is a different level, and it'll be up to Stein (who has the tall task of not only winning a state that Donald Trump is clearly leading in, but also to extend to a third Democratic term this fall) to make sure Tarheel voters know this. Robinson is a Holocaust denier, and is deeply antisemitic. He also has publicly called gay & transgender people "filth" and has threatened to arrest transgender people simply for using the bathroom of their choice (yes, I said arrest). He called Covid-19 a "globalist conspiracy" and has called Ellen Degeneres a "demon," Martin Luther King a "communist," and has insinuated that Michelle Obama is secretly a man. Stein, by comparison, is a pretty generic left-of-middle Democrat, one who has been Attorney General since 2017, and (taking on particular importance given Robinson's past antisemitic comments) would become North Carolina's first Jewish governor if he were elected.
One other callout before we leave North Carolina-the Attorney General race will have an unusual national importance given the candidates. Rep. Dan Bishop (R) won an expected victory on the GOP side, while Rep. Jeff Jackson (D), despite Republicans spending almost $1 million to beat him, was able to win the Democratic nomination. This sets up the first sitting House member vs. House member race for Attorney General since 1954 (in New York).
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| Rep. Jerry Carl (R-AL) |
We had a lot of primaries last night for the House, and specifically in California, they're still counting the votes so we won't know all of the matchups for days (if not weeks). But there are a few things to note, and we'll start with the races where the incumbents are guaranteed spots this fall. Rep. Tony Gonzales (R) will advance to a runoff against MAGA conservative YouTuber Brandon Herrera (the mental picture you just drew of what his politics are like is accurate based on that description). Gonzales has attracted criticism from Republicans due to his support for the Respect for Marriage Act and the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, both of which were signed into law in 2022 (after the Texas primaries that year). Also going to a runoff will be the redrawn Alabama's second congressional district between Shomari Figures (son of State Sen. Vivien Figures) and House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels. Not to editorialize too much, but while Figures is the favorite here given his performance last night, I am actively hoping for a Daniels upset in the runoff given Figures has received suspect donations from a conservative Super PAC associated with cryptocurrency, which is setting off internal alarms for me personally, and would not be in this position were it not for his more accomplished parents.
Those are the undecided races. The rest looks decided. Rep. Barry Moore defeated Rep. Jerry Carl in the redrawn first district of Alabama, which means Carl is officially the first incumbent (of either party or either house) in Congress to lose reelection this year. Rep. Steve Womack (R-AR), who voted to certify the 2020 election and was attacked for it on the campaign trail, won a surprisingly close reelection last night (and I would expect this could cause him to retire in 2026), while Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) also saw a tighter-than-expected election after Crenshaw also supported the 2020 election certification. Scary times that certifying an election can cost you significant support in a primary, but given the makeup of these seats, both men will win reelection in November.
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| State Rep. Rudy Salas (D-CA) |
The biggest question in terms of actual question marks for November in DC, and not just "who will hold safe seats" came in California's 22nd congressional district. In the weeks leading up to Tuesday, there was a lot of conversation about whether the Democrats would be shut out of the 22nd congressional district, despite the seat going for Joe Biden by 13-points and Alex Padilla by 3-points (i.e. territory they need to compete in). The Republicans got their preferred candidate in Rep. David Valadao (R), one of only two sitting members of the House who voted to impeach Donald Trump over his involvement in the January 6th terrorist attacks, but the worry was that the two Democrats (State Rep. Rudy Salas and State Sen. Melissa Hurtado) would split the vote enough that conservative Chris Mathys would join Valadao in the general. This didn't happen though. While some media outlets have yet to call this contest, Decision Desk HQ did call it early this morning for both Valadao & Salas, and that appears to be legitimate. This sets up a rematch of 2022, when Valadao beat Salas by 3-points. Given the presidential results in 2020, and how tight the House is, Salas' victory is a sigh-of-relief for the DCCC as they get their man for one of the most important House seats on the map this November.
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