On Tuesday, the Oscar nominations are announced. Every season this is a wild ride, with lots of twists and turns. Certain categories (Picture, Actor, Adapted Screenplay) feel pretty much sewn up while others (Score, Makeup & Hairstyling, Visual Effects) are bizarrely left wide-open. We'll discuss the minutia of all of these races throughout this article (and, undoubtedly, in the coming weeks), so I won't do too much of a preamble, except to offer up a couple of provisos. First, these are ranked by most likely to get nominated, not most likely to win (a thin distinction, but a real one). Second, I love upsets-I hope I'm wrong about a bunch of these because that'll make it more exciting. And third, these are predictions. This year more than most, I've seen people hate on a film's chances because they don't like said movie (Maestro and Barbie, in particular, feel like they've been hit pretty hard by this)-that's an amateur's mistake. You pick based on Oscar's tastes (and that means not necessarily going with every stat that's thrown at you about precursors-Oscar is not the BAFTA's or SAG), and go from there. With that said, here, are my predictions.
1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Barbie
4. Poor Things
5. The Holdovers
6. American Fiction
7. Past Lives
8. Anatomy of a Fall
9. The Zone of Interest
10. Maestro
Alts: Air, Origin, All of Us Strangers
The Lowdown: One of the things that I don't love about modern day awards is how mechanical they seem to be. The idea that, because of the way a specific precursor functions, it informs what you predict in another place even if all precursors have their own uniquenesses. But I am not impervious, and I am quite hung up on the fact that the PGA (which has never perfectly aligned with Oscar in the ten-wide field era), looks like the default ten. I really don't want to predict Maestro-I think it's the sort of boring biopic that gets in for acting but ultimately is skipped for Picture...but I can't decide what the runner-up is. There's Air (three Grade-A movie stars, two producing), Origin (a huge groundswell of support-I feel like it'll show up somewhere), and All of Us Strangers (BAFTA behemoth, one that pretty much everyone who sees it falls in love with). Any of these would make sense...but I can't pick which one makes the most sense, so I'm going to chicken out last second even though Maestro is such a copout prediction & I don't have a lot of faith in it.
1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
2. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
3. Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)
4. Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
Alts: Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
The Lowdown: Part of me wonders if Poor Things might under-perform with Oscar this year, given that it's missed key nominations throughout the season (particularly for its supporting fellas). Both Lanthimos & Glazer fall into that category, and Alexander Payne (whom many are guessing is out) is an Academy favorite-why would he miss after hitting virtually every lineup all season? This means that Greta Gerwig is going to be left holding the bag...and we're likely going to get five male Best Director nominees just like Little Women in 2019, which I'm sure will go over super well.
1. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
2. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
3. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
4. Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
5. Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Alts: Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
The Lowdown: Leo's snub at the BAFTA's this morning indicates that (along with SAG) he's just too soft for Killers-they will go with it other places, but like his miss for Don't Look Up, I just don't think he has the momentum here. After a long-anticipated win, Oscar sometimes makes you wait, and I think that's what's happening with Leo. So I'm going to go with Colman Domingo, whose BAFTA nomination solidified him for me. Despite an inexplicable BAFTA snub, if there's a surprise lurking here it's probably Andrew Scott-if enough people see All of Us Strangers, it's hard to see him missing in favor of something as generic as Rustin.
1. Emma Stone (Poor Things)
2. Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall)
3. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
4. Margot Robbie (Barbie)
5. Annette Bening (Nyad)
Alt: Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Aunjanue Ellis (Origin)
The Lowdown: Unlike Best Picture, I'm taking the plunge here (pun intended). While four of these women feel like locks, I have said all season that I think that Maestro is vulnerable; biopics are favorites of Oscar's because there are so many, but lots of them also get forgotten. Mulligan is less showy than Cooper, and she's not going to win...why not give it to someone who might care? That would be Annette Bening, who has pushed HARD all season to remind people that actresses over fifty still exist, and she might be the most-connected person in the Academy, give or take Diane Warren. If there's a To Leslie waiting in the wings, it's Aunjanue Ellis, but I think she probably missed her window by about two weeks to make that happen.
1. Robert Downey, Jr. (Oppenheimer)
2. Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
3. Robert de Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
4. Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
5. Willem Dafoe (Poort Things)
Alt: Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers), Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers)
The Lowdown: Here's the deal-this has been the presumed Top 5 all season (apologies to Charles Melton, but he always felt like a stretch given he's young & hot, two things Oscar doesn't love in its grizzled supporting actors). And sometimes this category is boring in a way they don't have room for someone new. But the Poor Things actors have had a spotty year, and it's possible they're splitting each other's votes. That would leave room for a surprise, but who? Sterling K. Brown is a respected character actor doing his thing in American Fiction (but it's such a throwaway part...I know people get in for stuff like this, but it's so disposable compared to Wright in the same film), so I'm betting on either Sessa (a co-lead new face from a movie they love) or Paul Mescal (recent nominee shooting for an afterglow citation) are the best options if Ruffalo/Dafoe can't hold water. But since I can't tell which of the Poor Things actors is stronger, I'll continue to guess both.
1. Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
2. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
3. Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
4. Jodie Foster (Nyad)
5. America Ferrera (Barbie)
Alts: Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest), Julianne Moore (May December), Viola Davis (Air)
The Lowdown: I feel relatively confident that our No Globe/SAG contender is in this category. The Top 4 feel relatively secure, but some of the other names all season (Julianne Moore, Rosamund Pike, Penelope Cruz) feel a bit too "non-Best Picture" for a field that already has Brooks & Foster going from non-Best Pictures. Viola Davis isn't out of the question, especially after she just missed for The Woman King, but I think this is a battle between Sandra Huller, getting a double nomination in a crowning glory moment for her, and America Ferrera, a longtime character actor who gets a showy supporting part in Barbie. I'm going with Ferrera, which is a head choice as Huller is a gut choice. Until the BAFTA double nomination, I assumed the Huller x2 was just hype, but now it's clearly a thing...one of those moments I wish I'd seen the movie to help guide if an unknown can have the kind of moment usually just reserved for icons like Al Pacino or Cate Blanchett.
1. Barbie
2. Oppenheimer
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. American Fiction
5. Poor Things
Alt: All of Us Strangers
The Lowdown: Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach, I'm going to be honest, felt like a cheat getting this nomination. Barbie is adapted from a toy, I guess, but it's just a toy-not even a toy with a story like Clue. We didn't say Spotlight was adapted from the Boston Globe or Topsy-Turvy was an adaptation of The Mikado. Their move probably costs Oppenheimer an easy Oscar, but more importantly-it costs Andrew Haigh's All of Us Strangers its best shot at an Oscar nomination. Given Haigh's continued presence as a talent in cinema whose films barely make any money, I wish that the Barbie team would've pushed harder to go original which is where they belong so that Haigh can get on more people's radar. Two people who grew up in independent film should know better (and don't give me that they didn't have a say in it-no one in Hollywood is telling Greta Gerwig "no" right now).
1. The Holdovers
2. Past Lives
3. Anatomy of a Fall
4. Air
5. Maestro
Alts: The Iron Claw, May December
The Lowdown: Barbie getting out here makes an already thin category even weaker. The Top 3 are guarantees, but the last two slots are a free-for-all. This feels like a decent way to make up to Bradley Cooper for skipping him in Best Director (and, if I'm right, Best Actress & nearly Best Picture), and Air is the sort of Old School "near miss" Best Picture nominee that gets into a field like this. I don't think Iron Claw has enough heat to get in, and May December's fading fast. I'm going with Maestro and Air because they feel like Oscar-y movies in a year that doesn't read as too creative beyond a couple of categories.
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2. The Boy and the Heron
3. Elemental
4. Nimona
5. Suzume
Alts: Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
The Lowdown: I think the Top 3 are secure, even if the Annie's snub was definitely weird for Elemental. This field has only skipped Disney twice (2005 & 2011), and in both cases there wasn't a film as obviously in Oscar's tastes as Elemental (it is a testament to how weak Disney is these days that it's about to lose this category twice in a row, the first time since 2005-06 that that happened). I don't entirely know what Netflix's animation house is up to these days, but sure...Nimona feels like a nominee. The final slot is where the question mark is-Suzume has owned the season, and is the right call for fifth. But only one stop-motion Aardman film (Early Man in 2018) has ever been skipped, and that was for a much stronger year...part of me wonders if Chicken Run 2 is being underestimated given, even with its middling reviews, it's SO in Oscar's wheelhouse.
1. The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
2. The Taste of Things (France)
3. Society of the Snow (Spain)
4. Fallen Leaves (Finland)
5. Perfect Days (Japan)
Alts: Promised Land (Denmark), The Teachers Lounge (Germany)
The Lowdown: Similar to the two female acting categories, we have four films that feel like they're locked into place here, though with this category there's no such thing as a lock (except The Zone of Interest...that's definitely happening). But the fifth slot-I have no clue what's happening there. Promised Land and The Teachers Lounge are from countries with better track records with Oscar, but given that there's already four European films in contention, I'm going to put money down on Perfect Days getting Japan another citation here.
1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
4. Elemental
5. Poor Things
Alts: The Zone of Interest, Society of the Snow
The Lowdown: We wrote an entire article explaining why John Williams will be included here for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (any other contender wouldn't even be on the shortlist for a film like that). Oppenheimer & Flower Moon both feel safe, the latter providing the one required first-time nominee in this field (every year there's at least one, there's virtually never three or more). The last two slots could go to 6-7 films (I didn't list them all in the alts as that would be cheating, but few things would surprise me), so I'm going to split the difference and pick another first-timer helming a Best Picture nominee (Poor Things) and Thomas Newman getting another chance to lose an Oscar with Elemental.
1. "What Was I Made For?" (Barbie)
2. "I'm Just Ken," (Barbie)
3. "It Never Went Away," (American Symphony)
4. "Road to Freedom," (Rustin)
5. "The Fire Inside," (Flamin' Hot)
Alts: "Dance the Night" (Barbie), "Quiet Eyes" (Past Lives)
The Lowdown: In the old world, Barbie would join Beauty and the Beast and The Lion King as the rare film to score three Best Original Song nominations-it has three zeitgeist-y hits in an otherwise weak year for this category, but since it's not eligible for all three, I'm going with the Globe & Critics Choice winners. The last three have Jon Batiste (a recent Oscar winner for Soul) in American Symphony, as well as Lenny Kravitz bringing the star power for Rustin. The final slot...if it ain't broke, don't fix it. When Diane Warren makes the shortlist, it's best to assume she's getting her nomination, hence the bizarre choice of Flamin' Hot for the Oscars (if it gets in, it'll be one of the only OVP films that I have to seek out as I've seen most of my predictions).
1. Oppenheimer
2. Maestro
3. Barbie
4. Ferrari
5. The Zone of Interest
Alt: Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon
The Lowdown: As a rule, you should not let your own tastes get in the way of a prediction, but everyone I have talked to has stated that The Zone of Interest (the most important Oscar contender that I haven't seen yet) has Sound design that is noticeable and really unrivaled. I'm therefore going to assume this is the one place we see a really big tech snub for Killers of the Flower Moon, as I also think that Ferrari reeks of an "only in Sound" nominee (in the olden days, it'd just get in for Sound Editing, leaving room for Flower Moon in Mixing). If this is wrong, I am going to point fingers at some people on Twitter who led me astray.
1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Maestro
4. Poor Things
5. The Zone of Interest
Alt: El Conde, Saltburn
The Lowdown: I haven't seen Zone of Interest yet, but it is intriguing to me that at least three of these five are partially in black-and-white, but none fully are. There's no Roger Deakins or Emmanuel Lubezki in this field, but it's littered with so many previously cited nominees that people like Edward Lachman (El Conde) and Linus Sandgren (Saltburn) are lounging about with contenders (Lachman even got an ASC nomination, which is nothing to throw a stick at). But I feel like this very heavily Best Picture-laden Top 5 is what Oscar is about in 2023.
1. Barbie
2. Maestro
3. Poor Things
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Oppenheimer
Alts: The Color Purple
The Lowdown: Despite a lack of Sandy Powell, I think Marty's epic makes it here. The bigger question is whether or not Chris Nolan's does. There are two tech categories that Oppenheimer is in the running for but not a guaranteed nominee (this and Makeup). I think this one he makes it, mostly because of the giant hat that he has on the poster (I'm only partially kidding). If it misses, maybe this is a good place for The Color Purple to sneak in (I'll be honest-I don't think Brooks is the only nomination for that movie even if it's a bust overall). It literally has a scene that takes place in a dress shop...that sort of nod to the craft is a good way to break through.
1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Poor Things
4. The Holdovers
5. Barbie
Alts: Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest
The Lowdown: Similar to a lot of the other choices, this one is just...lots of Best Picture nominees, and probably the Top 5 if we were still in that era of Best Picture. The Holdovers and Barbie are not the kinds of films that fill up this category normally; Oscar doesn't love comedies (even though timing is so crucial, and therefore the editors are so crucial, to their success), and both of these movies live-and-die off of their comic elements. A more serious Best Picture contender like Anatomy of a Fall or Zone of Interest may make more sense...but I can't decide which so we'll go with neither.
1. Poor Things
2. Maestro
3. Society of the Snow
4. Golda
5. Killers of the Flower Moon
Alts: Oppenheimer, Napoleon
The Lowdown: First off, Oscar decided to throw out a lot of the major contenders here by not putting them on the shortlist (Guardians of the Galaxy 3, Barbie, Nyad). The Top 2 feel pretty secure, and I'm going to go with Flower Moon even though that'd be a little bit off-beat for Oscar. For the final two, the frostbitten looks of Society of the Snow were the film's most notable calling card, and Oscar loves famous actors transforming into unrecognizable real-life figures (also, the Makeup Branch loves to nominate a random flop), so I'll guess Golda. That means this is the one tech category I'm going to skip Oppenheimer...but know that it's close so if it does make it, I won't be surprised.
1. Barbie
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Oppenheimer
4. Poor Things
5. Wonka
Alts: The Color Purple, Napoleon
The Lowdown: One of the things you'll hear me talk about (and anyone who knows about Oscar will talk about)-box office matters. There's this bizarre mindset that the Oscars nominates "films people don't see" when there's literally nothing that can help you out more in getting a nomination than a big pile of cash. All of this is to say, as Wonka crosses $500 million and becomes one of the true surprise hits of 2023 (in a year with few unqualified hits), I think Oscar finds room for him somewhere, and this is the likeliest spot. So alongside four Best Picture contenders (and ahead of the drawing rooms of Napoleon and the musical fantasies of The Color Purple), I'm going to assume there's room for a sugary upset.
1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
2. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
3. The Creator
4. Society of the Snow
5. Godzilla Minus One
Alts: Poor Things, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
The Lowdown: We've mentioned this a couple of times, but there are a lot of wide-open races this year, but none approach the craziness of VFX. We had the frontrunner (Dune 2) bumped by Warner Brothers during the strike, and the likely winner (Oppenheimer) didn't even make the shortlist. This leaves the category with no obvious frontrunner, and the tentative one (Poor Things) is no sure thing...in fact, the only sure thing here is Guardians of the Galaxy 3, which is never going to win (MCU has never won Best Visual Effects, I doubt they do now). I'm picking Guardians but suddenly not sold on Poor Things (buzz out of the bakeoffs is questionable). Instead I'm favoring The Creator (impressive robot visuals), Indiana Jones (de-aging & stronger reception this fall than you'd expect from a flop), and Society of the Snow (classy choice, though it's rare subtitled films get in here). For the final nomination, between tropes that Oscar usually turns down (animated films and Godzilla), I'm going to go out on a limb and pick Godzilla Minus One. I do not feel confident in this, but in a category this weird...why not go with your gut?
1 comment:
I think your predictions are really strong and well thought-out...it's so tough when it comes down to "Will it be Carey or Annette?" and "Could Greta really miss Best Director?"
The only thing I'm really pulling for that you didn't mention as a candidate or alternate is a possible nomination for Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem in the Animated Feature category. I saw it with my niece and we both through it was one of the best animated movies we've seen in quite a while.
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