Glenn Youngkin is Not the Future of the GOP

Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA)

Few people are more excited about the government shutdown being averted than Glenn Youngkin, the current Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia.  Virginia employs a higher-percentage of federal employees than any other state, and the last time there was a government shutdown during a Virginia election year (2013), the Democrats used running against the House Republicans to their advantage, eventually sweeping all three statewide offices.  Youngkin had a very successful election in 2021 (sweeping back all statewide offices to the GOP) and is hoping to do the same with two tossup legislative majorities for both the Senate and the General Assembly (currently Democrats control the Senate, the Republicans the General Assembly).  The foolishness from the House GOP certainly didn't help his chances of getting a trifecta, but a shutdown would've doomed them, so this is a big victory for him.

Youngkin is a figure that is talked about a lot nationally.  With a manicured head of silver hair, and an imposing, lanky frame (the former NCAA basketball player is allegedly 6'7", making him possibly the tallest governor in our nation's history), he looks like he was taken out of central casting for playing a president in a 1970's drama.  His victory in 2021 is a rare situation where Republicans were able to win a blue state (Virginia has gone for every Democrat for president since 2008) during the Trump Era.  This is something that the establishment has been salivating over, and is one of the reasons that Youngkin is mentioned so often nationally-the GOP establishment is desperate for him to run for president.

When it comes to the GOP establishment, it's not entirely clear who we're talking about as being "establishment" in the post-Trump era.  Most of the Republicans who were truly Never Trump (think figures like Cindy McCain) are basically just Democrats at this point, even if they wouldn't admit it publicly, endorsing Joe Biden in 2020.  But there is a specific type of Republican, especially among donors, who has an appetite to not run Trump in 2024, even if they're willing to vote for him if they have to.

The problem for them is-they don't have a clear option in 2024 that can actually beat Trump in the primary.  Ron DeSantis was the great white hope for a longtime there, but he's collapsed like a neutron star, and I honestly don't know if he makes it to Iowa at this rate (that he destroyed Florida in ways it will take decades to fix just to poll below a pharmaceutical executive that has never held political office remains one of the great L's in modern politics).  Other figures like Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, & Chris Christie...sure, they'd love to go with one of them, but none of them stand a chance against Trump.  Their polling combined doesn't even come close to the former president's numbers.  The natural inclination here is to go with someone who isn't in the race, someone like Youngkin.

This is not new, by the way.  The idea of a candidate coming into a race late to save the day goes back decades.  In 2016, Joe Biden was rumored late when Hillary Clinton was vulnerable to Bernie Sanders, and both Paul Ryan & Mitt Romney were considered as replacement options to get rid of the Trump problem that year.  Hillary Clinton herself was once a "maybe she'll reconsider" candidate in 2004, and the list goes on-and-on-and-on.  Mario Cuomo in 1992, Gerald Ford in 1980, Ted Kennedy in 1972 & 1976...there's always a section of the primary electorate who doesn't see a victory coming, and wants to bet on what's behind Door #3.  

Sometimes they even get their wish, and in a cautionary tale to not only Youngkin, but also all of these other figures who declined, it rarely works out for them.  In 1988, with a disappointing array of Democratic options to take on Bush, Gary Hart jumped back into the race, and led nationally at one point, before more dirt came out about Hart's 1984 campaign, and he bombed in New Hampshire.  The same could be said for NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg when he ran for president late in the race in 2020...and got clobbered to the point where he only won American Samoa.  Both of these are reasons why Youngkin probably won't get in.

There's also the fact that there's not really an appetite for Youngkin's brand of polished conservatism.  In terms of his views, while Youngkin is frequently declared a "moderate" by an undiscerning press, he's not-he's about as conservative as Haley or Scott are.  What he is is a polite figure that would probably actually concede if he lost (and wouldn't, say, call for a former Chair of the Joint Chiefs to be publicly executed, which is literally what Trump did in the last week).  But that's not what the MAGA elite wants...and it's not what the establishment is ever going to get again.

Youngkin is not a big enough deal to beat Trump.  If Romney & Ryan, far more important & influential figures, couldn't best him in 2016, a first-term Governor of Virginia sure isn't going to do it.  But let's say Trump were to drop out tomorrow-the assumption that everything would go back to normal is crazy.  The Trump base is huge, and it's going to have a say over how the party runs post-Trump.  Most of the establishment figures are able to exist because it's hard to beat incumbents & they've pledged fealty, and because Trump hasn't gone after all of them (though obviously figures like Liz Cheney & Mark Sanford have fallen because of him).  But in an open primary, do we really think that Youngkin is going to be the figure that the Trump forces go after?  Do you think after three cycles of Trump's politics, are going to quietly give that authentic MAGA high for a substitute?  No, it'll be another bombastic, appeal-to-the-blue-collar-voters true-believer candidate who will feel natural in front of an audience like Trump did.  That might be Marjorie Taylor Greene, it might be Donald Trump, Jr.  It might be Tucker Carlson, Joe Rogan, Lauren Boebert, Matt Gaetz, Kari Lake, or Tommy Tuberville.  But it's going to be someone who is in the mold of Trump.  In 1980, Ronald Reagan was considered a revolutionary conservative change for the GOP (like Trump, he was initially branded "unelectable" and "easy to beat,") but when he won, he became the mold for every Republican that followed until 2016.  It's possible that Trump's shadow lasts just as long.