Gavin Newsom, Barbara Lee, & the Tangled Appointment Web in California

The late Sen. Dianne Feinstein with Gov. Gavin Newsom

We have not talked about the death of Sen. Dianne Feinstein on the blog because, well, we've been talking about Dianne Feinstein so much in the past few years that it felt like I'd said most of the things that I had intended to say about the senator already.  She was, arguably, the most important American female politician of the past 40 years not named Nancy, Hillary, or Kamala.  She was a famed dealmaker in the Senate, someone who helped to usher in the "solid blue" status of California, the nation's most populous state and the bedrock of any Democratic presidential coalition in the past 30 years.  She was also, in the past few years, something of a national punchline, clearly too old to serve in Congress, and likely not well enough to be able to make the kinds of decisions that a US Senator needs to make (I'm convinced we're going to have an Atlantic article in 6-9 months where we find out that her staff was behaving wholly inappropriately in guiding how she voted on a number of issues, but that's a conversation for the future).

One thing that was an initial worry from progressives that I always thought was overblown was the impact that her death would have on the Senate committees, specifically the Senate Judiciary Committee.  The primary worry about Feinstein not being present in DC during her long run of health issues was because she couldn't help break ties in the 11-10 Senate Judiciary Committee.  With dozens of positions left open (primarily because Sen. Durbin has not gotten rid of the blue slip process, something that I am now fully convinced will be his political epitaph in the way that Feinstein's was that she should've retired in 2018), this is a major concern with Republicans heavily favored to take the Senate in 2024.

But Sens. McConnell & Thune have indicated that they will not fight Schumer on a Senate reorganization to accommodate the senator who will replace Feinstein; the fight was always just over a mid-Congress reshuffle, which would've been unprecedented.  The idea that they would prevent an appointment if she resigned always felt specious because both men have seen multiple closely divided Senates, and they understand that Feinstein's situation is not a one-off situation.  Were senators not able to be replaced on committee when they left office, no senator would ever be in a presidential cabinet again, or run for governor again, and age would become a major factor in a body where 15 senators are over 75.  None of this was worth a minor victory in the Senate Judiciary Committee that Schumer would make a point of getting around if he had to (other than those seats held up blue slips, I doubt that Schumer will allow any judges left hanging before next November as long as he's majority leader).

The big question right now, though, is what will happen with Gov. Gavin Newsom.  Newsom, a second-term governor who has spent much of the last year basically just campaigning for fame in what many believe is a tee-up to a 2028 presidential campaign, will have to appoint his second senator while in office.  Newsom is on record as stating that he would appoint a Black woman to the office, something that he said when it didn't appear certain that Feinstein would need a replacement, but he now is boxed into a corner on because he can't go back on a promise made to the backbone of Democratic Primaries (the best predictor of who will win a Democratic Primary is generally the candidate who has support from African-Americans...just ask Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Bill Clinton, & Hillary Clinton (in 2016)).

Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA)

In the past few days, though, Black women have made it clear that they don't want just any candidate in the race-they want Rep. Barbara Lee.  There are currently no Black women in the US Senate, and while that feels certain to change next year with Angela Alsobrooks & Lisa Blunt Rochester running in Maryland & Delaware, respectively, Lee is smart to point this out as an opportunity to not just appoint a Black woman, but one who is running in the Senate race.  Indeed, when Newsom started to signal he didn't want to appoint Lee (by saying he wanted a caretaker instead to not disrupt the Democratic Primary), the Congressional Black Caucus sent a strong message to Newsom that they were endorsing Lee...and he should get inline if he wanted their future support.

This is, quite frankly, atypical.  It isn't out of the ordinary for people to speak up on an appointment, but by-and-large, most governors don't give in to this type of talk.  When Rep. Barney Frank started to push himself publicly for the Senate seat that had been held by John Kerry, he didn't get it...same with Caroline Kennedy trying to get Hillary Clinton's when she also became Secretary of State.  In both cases, it's possible their public campaigns backfired, as it felt gauche to go after an election of one so publicly.  But there's a reason that the CBC and Lee are going all in here-it's probably the only shot she has of actually winning the seat.

Though she started with a clear base as a longtime progressive African-American member of Congress and the only candidate from the Bay Area in the race, Lee has struggled in the contest for the Senate.  Her fundraising has been lousy-Adam Schiff was sitting on $30 million in July, while Katie Porter was at $10 million, but Barbara Lee?  She had just $1.4 million in the bank, a pittance in a state as large as California.  Lee had likely counted on getting second place to Schiff in the primary, but polling shows Porter & Schiff so far ahead she's unlikely to get into a runoff without a dramatic change in her standings.  The only one left for her would be to get the Senate seat that Newsom is offering up.

This wouldn't be a guarantee for Lee, but it would help on a number of fronts.  As a sitting US Senator, she'd have a much larger platform than Schiff & Porter, and could weigh in on a number of issues directly impacting the Senate.  She would likely be able to get at least some institutional support from the DSCC, and other organizations (like Emily's List) would be more likely to back her even though they had so far stayed out of the race.  Also, as a sitting senator, her fundraising apparatus would be much larger.  All of this would give her a jolt in the race.  Whether she'd follow through with it is anyone's guess.

The weird thing is, of the three, Newsom probably wants Lee the most-she's a Bay Area politician like him (and Feinstein) and she'd be a powerful ally in 2028 if she were to win.  But this is a big gamble at this point, because there's no guarantee that Lee will be able to sustain headed into next year's race.  For starters, the biggest debit for her campaign is still there-Lee is old.  At 77, she's just over a decade younger than Feinstein, and Californians have likely had enough problems with electing octogenarians to not want to send someone to the Senate who will be in her mid-80's before she's done with her first term.  Against Schiff & Porter (both decades younger than her), it's a stark contrast given Feinstein literally died in office.

Newsom also has a problem if Lee loses.  While he has backed off this promise in the past few hours (strongly signaling he will appoint Lee, or at least another high-profile Black woman who wants to run if appointed), he initially said he wanted to appoint a caretaker, which was the smart choice given he said he'd nominate a Black woman & Porter/Schiff lead the race.  Because if Schiff or Porter are elected, Newsom now has someone who is royally pissed at him as a major statewide officeholder in 2028.  A Senator Schiff or Senator Porter would not endorse Newsom in the primary (and Schiff is endorsed by Nancy Pelosi, so Newsom would go up against the most powerful name in California politics come 2028 if he appointed Lee), and given that there will be another Golden State Democrat (Kamala Harris) already in the race that'll be easy for them to go toward, Newsom's public promises (which were extremely ill-advised...a big rule of politics is to not tie yourself into boxes over hypotheticals that could become reality unless you know you can deliver) that may force him to pick Lee come with high risk if she can't get him a win.