Is Elissa Slotkin Really the Next Sinema?

Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI)

In 1990, President George HW Bush was tasked with finding a replacement for retiring Supreme Court Justice William J. Brennan, Jr.  Brennan, at the time the Court's most liberal justice, gave Bush an opportunity to bring the Court rightward, and at one point he considered Justice Clarence Thomas (whom he'd eventually appoint to the Court, as you're no doubt aware).  Instead, thanks to Bush's Chief of Staff John H. Sununu he appointed David Souter, a judge who was assumed to be a conservative, to the point where major progressive organizations like NOW and the NAACP openly opposed Souter's nomination.  While he was confirmed 90-9, the nine senators who opposed his nomination were all Democrats, including noted progressives like Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, Barbara Mikulski, & Frank Lautenberg.

Souter, though, became a trojan horse for the conservative movement.  Quickly into his time in office, Souter began to establish himself as a progressive on the Court, and by the end of the decade he had backed liberal positions on abortion, election law, and the death penalty.  This caused heated anger within the conservative movement, with them actively hating the justice, and the battle cry "No More Souters" becoming so important it basically took down the potential nomination of Alberto Gonzales during George W Bush's career (even though Gonzales had a much stronger case that he was a "true conservative").

At this point, Supreme Court nominees are so vetted it's basically impossible for a situation like Souter to slip through; the best you can honestly do is occasional breaks from the party with someone like Brett Kavanaugh.  But that's not true for Senate candidates, and indeed, a rallying cry from the other side of the aisle in the past six years has been "No More Sinemas."  Kyrsten Sinema, like David Souter, felt at one point like an ally of the progressive movement.  She was originally a member of the Green Party, supported Ralph Nader, and when she became a Democrat, was publicly on-record as being critical of Joe Lieberman for using the filibuster to implement more conservative positions.  While she moderated in the House, there was an expectation that she was a "progressive," and to be fair, she kind of votes like one (Sinema is, despite her protestations, to the left of Angus King, Tom Carper, & Joe Manchin if you look at sites like Progressive Punch which base decisions solely on the votes she's taken).  But Sinema's embrace of the filibuster, and constant rhetoric that made it difficult for a number of progressive movements (including on the minimum wage) has made her a pariah in the party, to the point where she recently became an Independent.

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ)

Where is this leading, you might ask?  After all, Sinema is unlikely to be a Democratic nominee ever again, and polls show her leaving office next year (with or without a retirement).  But Sinema becomes relevant when you look at some votes this past week in the House.  Most of the votes that were taken during Kevin McCarthy's defense bill were intended to placate the Marjorie Taylor Greene wing of his party, and to create a bill that's DOA in the Senate (much less the Oval Office).  But with that, he had a vote about limiting flags that would fly in Department of Defense facilities.  This was a Trump administration rule, and the principle result of it would be on ensuring that, during Pride month, Pride flags would not fly over Air Force & Navy facilities or be shared on their social media accounts.  Despite wide condemnation by the LGBTQ+ community, two Democrats voted for this bill: Don Davis (NC) and Elissa Slotkin (MI).

While Davis is in a swing district, Slotkin is currently running a high-profile race for the Democratic Senate nomination in her state of Michigan, one that until this past week, she'd been kind of cruising to win, as her fundraising has outdone the field, and the worry has been with multiple Black Democrats running in the primary, they might splinter the vote amongst those who feel that this would be an ideal time for Michigan to elect its first African-American senator.  Slotkin felt the need to pretty much immediately issue a statement on her social media, pointing out that her late mother was queer and that she has been a longtime champion of gay rights, and tried to establish her support of the bill as being so that they would also ban Confederate flags from military bases...but the damage was done.  Given the initial intent of the bill (introduced by Republican Rep. Ralph Norman), progressives online made a point of criticizing Slotkin, calling her "another Sinema."  Even her opponents in the primary made a point of differentiating themselves against Slotkin.  Actor Hill Harper, who is also seeking the nomination, said on Twitter "the pride flag isn't a sign of hate and division, it's a sign of love and acceptance," clearly alluding to Slotkin's vote on the amendment and indicating he'd use it as a wedge issue in the campaign.

Slotkin, in my opinion, remains the frontrunner.  She has tons of establishment support, including Rep. Haley Stevens and Emily's List.  It's entirely possible that this was, in fact, a one-time anomaly for Slotkin, who does, to her credit, have a very strong record on LGBTQ+ rights.  She received a perfect HRC scorecard in both the 116th & 117th congresses, and has been a backer of the Equality Act, Respect for Marriage Act, & the Do No Harm Act in Congress.  It's also worth noting that, unlike Sinema, Slotkin is on record as supporting filibuster reform, and has said, "the filibuster, as it is now being used, needs to go."  But Slotkin is a good reminder of how reticent Democrats are after Sinema to tolerate candidates, even in swing states, who will stop them from being able to implement their agenda if the party remains in power in the Senate.  If she ends up losing ground in the Senate race, she's got only herself to blame for taking a vote here that even the most amateur of political observers could've told her was "not worth it."