The House is always the hardest of the contests to write in this forum because it has the most races, and because it's hard to tell the dynamics of the House races, especially this far out. I can promise, a year from now, both sides will have managed to drop seats that right now feel like prime opportunities because they bet on poor challengers, and other seats that shouldn't be competitive will be because of an incumbent scandal or a party botching an open seat. As a result, we're going to group these into four categories, and discuss key races to watch in each of them. Our four groupings will be based on redistricting, presidential partisanship, and the potential for swing districts, especially if one side starts to gain in the presidential race.
A few things to ground the conversation before we begin. First, the House is currently divided 222R-213D, a very slim majority for Speaker Kevin McCarthy to try to hold onto. There are also currently 226 seats that went for Joe Biden in 2020, compared to 209 won by Donald Trump, which means that McCarthy's majority is based in large part on the 18 Republicans who won in districts that voted for Joe Biden in 2020 (only five Democrats represent Trump districts). If you look at McCarthy's leadership style, where he regularly forces those 18 Republicans to take tough votes that Nancy Pelosi wouldn't dream of forcing her Democrats to take for no reason, he doesn't appear aware of that, but it will be a crucial part of the conversation if we do get the expected Biden/Trump rematch in 2024.
1. The Redistricting Limbo Seats
Which brings us to the "un-gerrymandering" section of this article (far more heartening), which is entirely focused on states that would go bluer if the maps are redrawn (a court case in New Mexico conceivably could imperil Rep. Gabe Vasquez, but I don't think that ends up victorious). So far, Democrats have won court cases in Alabama & Louisiana, but the state legislatures are being defiant in hopes that they'll be able to find some loophole by going back to the conservative Supreme Court. While I wouldn't put anything past Brett Kavanaugh, I don't think this pans out in these two states, which are clearly in violation of the Voting Rights Act (VRA), and I'm going to be honest-I would be surprised if the state's were able to run out the clock. In both cases, a state redraw would add another Black-majority district, and in a presidential race, there's no way that the Democrats wouldn't then score two pickups. It's likely this would mean that Rep. Julia Letlow loses in Louisiana, while Alabama will probably have Reps. Jerry Carl & Barry Moore fighting out a primary against each other rather than run in an unfriendly district. Either way, AL/LA should get Democrats two more seats.
2. The Republican-Held Biden Seats
3. The Trump-Held Biden Seats
4. The Swing Districts
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| Rep. Jeff Jackson (D-NC) |
Despite 2022 being the year of redistricting, 2024 is shaping up to be not only a major redistricting cycle for some states, but it is certainly the most consequential aspect of the House contest at this point, with both sides potentially able to either further gerrymander (or in some cases, thanks to legal action, un-gerrymander) in a way that will change their fortunes & improve their odds.
Two states seem likely to help McCarthy's cause: Ohio & North Carolina. In both states, the state's Supreme Court was able to stop the most aggressive gerrymandering in 2022, but thanks to Democrats losing key Supreme Court races in these two states in 2022, it now seems probable that both states will redraw. In Ohio, this would put Reps. Greg Landsman, Emilia Sykes, & Marcy Kaptur in danger (Kaptur already is one of five Democrats representing Trump districts, so she's already vulnerable but could be made more so), while in North Carolina, Reps. Kathy Manning, Jeff Jackson, Wiley Nickel, & Don Davis could be drawn in a way that would make reelection impossible. Davis, specifically, feels the safest of these seven incumbents, given the recent Supreme Court decision in Allen v. Milligan (Davis represents a largely African-American district, which carving up would potentially put the whole map in peril given the VRA ramifications...if NC GOP is pragmatic they'll leave him alone or shore him up while going after the three remaining Democrats). Either way, Republicans should be able to pickup something in the ballpark of 5-7 seats in these states through gerrymandering alone (for posterity, I will point out that while gerrymandering is bad regardless of who does it, only one side supports eliminating gerrymandering, so this is not a "both sides" issue-Democrats have the moral high ground here).
The Democrats, though, appear to have a few options on their end as well. For starters, New York seems increasingly likely to be able to pass the aggressive gerrymander that they weren't able to pass in 2022 thanks to a court overrule of the map. Due to a new judge on the NY Supreme Court, the old map feels like it will likely be able to be passed if Gov. Hochul and the state legislature has the gumption, and so far it appears they do. The map Hochul initially signed in 2022 would've only left four Trump-won seats in the state's 26-seat delegation, with the remaining seats being comfortably Biden seats (i.e. he won them by more than 9-points). Reps. Nick LaLota, Nicole Malliotakis, Brandon Williams, George Santos, Marc Molinaro, Mike Lawler, & Anthony D'Esposito would be in hot water with this map...in fact, while a couple (like Malliotakis & Williams specifically) would be able to plausibly win, the bulk would be DOA. If you're comparing this to NC/OH, your math is not wrong-a 22-4 map that panned out for NY Democrats would wipe out seven incumbent Republicans, pretty much negating everything the Republicans might gain in NC/OH.
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| Rep. Julia Letlow (R-LA) |
The one other state that seems likely to get a redraw is Wisconsin. Currently, Wisconsin has a 6-2 gerrymander that is the result of the aggressively conservative Republican state legislature. The Democrats recently won back control of the state Supreme Court (newly-elected Justice Janet Protasiewicz will take office in just over a week), and a top priority for Democrats are redraws of the congressional & state legislative maps. Wisconsin is hard to draw a 4-4 map without feeling a little bit like a gerrymander to favor the Democrats because most of the state's voter base is in densely populated areas of Madison & Milwaukee, but you can definitely draw a map that would make it through the court that would give you four Biden districts, making Reps. Bryan Steil & Derrick van Orden sitting ducks in a presidential rematch. The Supreme Court could intervene here (that is the Republicans' hope), but the odds are stronger that the Democrats just get their victory, and add another two seats to their total.
A few other court cases to keep an eye on are much longer shots for the Democrats. In the wake of the Milligan result, redistricting cases in Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, & Texas pose a potential opportunity for Democrats to make more gains under the VRA, though it's unclear how strong these cases are (from my amateur view, I think Georgia has the best shot, Texas has the worst, and the other two are somewhere in the middle but still unlikely). There is also a court case in Utah that would force a redraw of their maps (in my opinion, after Louisiana & Alabama, the most undemocratic gerrymander in the country). Recent reads see the Court case leaning toward the Democrats' favor, but it's a very conservative court so don't count any districts before they get a result. Utah has a 4-0 Republican delegation, and a fair redraw would result in Salt Lake City getting its own, blue district, so this would be a net loss of one if the Republicans lose. All-in-all, both sides stand to make gains in mid-decade redistricting, but the Democrats are in a better position right now to net seats in redistricting if the court cases/new maps land as expected.
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| Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR) |
Not all states are going to redraw their districts, and yet some of those will still flip in 2024. Like I said, there are 18 Biden-held districts where the Republicans will have to find at least some Biden 2020 voters to join their side. 7 of those seats are in New York, which even if it doesn't get a redraw is built on a leaning tower for the GOP (Reps. George Santos & Anthony D'Esposito are goners regardless of what happens, and while Democrats look to be making a tactical error in possibly nominating Mondaire Jones, who is well to the left of NY-17, that seat is so blue even Jones would be competitive). But there are plenty of other districts that Democrats will make a play after in 2024 that will impact the math for Hakeem Jeffries bid for the Speaker's gavel.
Top of the list, in my opinion, are a handful of freshman Republicans who represent districts that will be harder holds in a presidential race. John Duarte & Lori Chavez DeRemer are already underdogs in districts that Biden won by more than 8-points...I think both would need some unforced errors on the Democrats' part to get a second term. Other freshmen members like Juan Ciscomani, Tom Kean, & Jen Kiggans represent more marginal districts, but if Democrats want to knock them out, 2024 is the time to do it before they become too entrenched. We've seen how that plays out in California, where Reps. Young Kim, Michelle Steel, Mike Garcia, & David Valadao have defied the odds multiple times in Biden seats...I personally think Steel & Kim are safe (honestly, I wonder if Biden can hang onto Kim's district or if that's a possible Trump flip), but the blue nature of Valadao & Garcia's seats (Biden won both by more than 12-points) make them harder to hold if Democrats can resist nominating Christy Smith again. I'll round out by saying that there are a few Republicans who are vulnerable, but the DCCC is probably hoping for a surprise retirement; David Schweikert, Don Bacon, and especially Brian Fitzpatrick are established in their seats, and are an uphill battle for the left, but their seats would be flips if having to kowtow to Marjorie Taylor Greene makes them want to sit out the 2024 cycle. Democrats may have a 4+ seat gain if all of the expected redistricting happens, but remember they need five seats to win back a majority, and they'll likely lose a couple of their own seats-at least a few of the names I just mentioned need to be collecting unemployment in January 2025 for the left to win back their majority.
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| Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) |
There are only five Democrats left in Trump-won seats after 2022, where redistricting & a few election losses (Al Lawson, Cindy Axne) brought their numbers down tightly. Just one of these is a freshman representative this Congress: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who won a seat solely by the Republicans screwing up in a primary (removing moderate Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler in favor of MAGA conservative Joe Kent). Kent is already in this race, and while Herrera Beutler could also join (or Trump could be able to carry Kent in with higher turnout), this is now a race the Republicans will actually have to challenge, though I will say that Gluesenkamp Perez does feel like an underdog (though not necessarily DOA) to me in a way the other four incumbent Democrats do not.
The other four include three established incumbents (Jared Golden, Marcy Kaptur, & Matt Cartwright), and one second-term congresswoman who got to her office during a late special election last congress (Mary Peltola). Golden feels the safest, continually winning due in large part to Ranked-Choice Voting, and Peltola might be in a similar boat if Alaska continues to flirt with pink state status (though I still think this race is a tossup if Republicans nominate someone better than Sarah Palin). Cartwright also feels safe, and it's worth noting both Josh Shapiro & John Fetterman won his district in 2022 so Biden could be a threat to take it back, but he's always a risk for retirement, as is Kaptur (the longest-serving woman in the House, and if she wins another term, the dean of the Democratic caucus given Steny Hoyer's probable retirement). Kaptur will likely wait and see what redistricting does to her seat before she decides again.
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| Rep. Susan Wild (D-PA) |
Some of these Democrats could end up losing (Gluesenkamp Perez, if I was forced to predict, would be one I'd guess will flip), but the short list here means that if Republicans can't make their gains in redistricting, they're going to have to either hold vulnerable incumbents in Biden districts or find more Biden territory to win over voters, which was a decided challenge for them in 2022. This brings us to our last category-the seats that one party has both the presidential & House seats currently, but still want to flip on the House level.
This is harder to do than you'd think, but it does happen. In 2020, Biden won five seats that eventually went to Republicans despite the Democrats previously holding them, though no Trump seats suffered a similar fate. Part of this is predicting which of these seats will flip on a presidential level (after all, this helped Republicans flip FL-26 in 2020 and Democrats to flip GA-7, where both POTUS/House flipped). For Republicans there are four seats that Biden won by less than 5-points that have Democratic incumbents (I'm not counting any state likely to be redrawn like Ohio & New York) that are considered to be somewhat vulnerable: CO-8, MI-7, MI-8, & PA-7. The problem for Republicans is that in all three of these states, they're seeing a leftward tilt. While Biden won MI-7 and MI-8 by 1 and 2-points, respectively, Gretchen Whitmer won them by 10 and 12-points respectively...this makes it likelier that they hold. Same with PA-7, where Biden won it by less than a point, but John Fetterman took it by 4-points. And Colorado continues to just vault to the left. This might speak to the strength of candidates like Whitmer & Fetterman, but it also poses a challenge for Republicans-if they couldn't win these seats in 2022, can they win them in 2024 unless Biden loses?
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| Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA) |
Obviously there are other districts that could flip, but I'm going to leave it there for now until we have a better read on places like Colorado's 3rd or Indiana's 1st, where the presidential race (and who is likely to win) is going to matter more than the fundamentals. Overall, I will say that if we're assuming Joe Biden wins reelection, which as of today would be the likeliest of outcomes, the Democrats also look like they'll take the House with it, though the Republicans remain the decided frontrunners to control the Senate and the majority of the governorships. That is the "State of the Race" as I see it 16 months out from the consequential 2024 elections.
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