Other films this past year saw less impressive totals. Disney/Pixar animation, which makes up seven of the now 51 films that are in the Top 10 (I'm counting the 2019 Lion King here as it's animated even if it's "live-action"), saw either disappointments (Lightyear) or total busts (Strange World) at the box office, and while you could hardly call the grosses of films like Thor: Love and Thunder, Black Adam, and Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore small, they are nowhere near what previous features from the MCU/DCEU/Harry Potter universe have put forth.
As we look ahead to 2023, I'm keeping all of this in mind as I put forth the five films I think are the most likely to hit $1 billion this year. This year isn't quite as guaranteed as last year-there was virtually no way Avatar and Jurassic World weren't hitting the number (though it has to be said that Jurassic World cut it very close, a disproportionately large foreign box office carried it across the threshold but domestic interest in that franchise rapidly has dwindle). For starters, China has been a very difficult box office for a lot of major releases, specifically comic book films. No MCU film has been released in China since Spider-Man: Far From Home, which almost certainly cost Dr. Strange 2 its distinction as a $1 billion movie, and with a stunning eight films coming out from the DCEU/MCU houses this year (i.e. taking up most of the blockbuster oxygen), if they can't fix the standoff with China, it's going to make it a lot harder to get to $1 billion.
So below I am going to list the five films I think are the most likely to get to $1 billion of the currently scheduled 2023 releases, and what each of these might be able to help get other films to $1 billion. As Top Gun: Maverick proved, there's always the potential for a film to become a global phenomenon and surprise...conversely, as Black Adam and Thor: Love and Thunder showed, there are no guarantees when it comes to the box office in a post-Covid world. The films are listed chronologically by currently scheduled release date.
Release Date: 5/5/23
Reasons It Will Hit $1 Billion: I've gotta list a Marvel movie-there's five of them next year (Sony's still Marvel for those trying to correct me), and ten of the 51 films that have hit $1 billion are Marvel movies-given those odds, I would look silly not highlighting at least one option here. Of the four, I feel the most confident in Guardians, whose last installment six years ago grossed $863 million, so a billion dollars is not out of the question here. Disney has invested heavily in the franchise, featuring them in the Thor and Avengers movies in a major way, as well as giving them their own Christmas special. It's also almost certain to the be the most consequential movie of the year for the MCU-there's no fourth movie, and a lot of rumors that someone will die in this film, and it could be a sendoff for all of the characters. All of that should add up to butts in seats opening weekend.
Reasons It Won't Hit $1 Billion: Black Panther was one of the most anticipated films of the year, and it couldn't sustain the $1 billion status the first movie reached, in fact it's almost $500 million short of what the last movie hit. Thor came in $90 million short of its predecessor, and while Dr. Strange outdid its first outing by $300 million (impressive), it did so off the heals of a major Spider-Man hit last year (and the return of Wanda after the massive pop culture series WandaVision)...it was playing with a loaded deck & it still couldn't reach $1 billion. Honestly, I'm curious what it's going to take for an "average" Marvel film (i.e. not an Avengers or Spider-Man) to get $1 billion if China won't help the MCU.
What It Could Mean for the Rest of the Year: As I said, there's four more Marvel movies this year, three from the MCU (Ant-Man 3, The Marvels, Kraven the Hunter) and one from Sony (Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse). If Guardians can't clear $1 billion, I doubt any of these movies will be able to, and we might have to wait until 2025 when there's the next Avengers film to clear that marker. If Guardians does, though, or if any of these films can get a release date in China, watch this space.
Release Date: 5/26/23
Reasons It Will Hit $1 Billion: This might surprise some of you, but Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin, and The Lion King all passed the $1 billion mark, the latter two doing so largely based on enormous box office from international audiences. Of the original four Disney Renaissance quartet, the only one remaining is The Little Mermaid, which comes out later this year. Expect Disney, who owes their existence to this movie (and also is running out of A+ properties to reboot into live-action films) to go all-out on this one, particularly considering they got a proper movie star (Melissa McCarthy) to play the part of Ursula, and they are getting Memorial Day weekend, one of the best box office weekends of the year, for the release.
Reasons It Won't Hit $1 Billion: A couple of reasons. First, Disney has done serious damage to its brand with the Disney+ releases of not just Pixar movies, but also live-action gold mines like Hocus Pocus 2 and Disenchanted. It's hard to tell if audiences will be like "I'll see it on Disney+," particularly for a film that they already know by heart. After all, the last Disney live-action movie (Pinocchio) was an exclusive on the platform, and Cruella (which had great reviews & a big star) underwhelmed at the box office. I'm also curious to see how the Republican uproar over there being a Black Ariel actually impacts box office-I'm guessing it'll be negligible, but if you're trying to get to $1 billion (rather than just being a hit), it could be something to watch.
What It Could Mean for the Rest of the Year: Disney had a rough box office for its children's/family fare in 2021-22. If a guaranteed hit like The Little Mermaid doesn't connect, how do we expect something like Elemental or Wish to do well?
Release Date: 6/30/23
Reasons It Will Hit $1 Billion: I honestly don't think any of these films are "guaranteed" $1 billion in the way that Avatar and Jurassic World were last year. But the closest you get to a guarantee might be Indiana Jones 5, which will surely be Harrison Ford's final bow with the hero, and if Ford is to be believed, the final movie we'll ever get from the franchise. The last film made $790 million, but did so in 2008 (adjusted for inflation, that'd be north of $1 billion, and if Top Gun: Maverick taught us anything, it's that a legacy sequel with tons of nostalgia starring a legendary movie star is a recipe for success at the box office.
Reasons It Won't Hit $1 Billion: Here's the deal-I think Indiana Jones (which I suspect will make it into Chinese markets), will hit $1 billion if it's good. I personally think all four of the films that have been released are thumbs up movies, but there's a clear difference between Raiders/Last Crusade and Temple of Doom/Crystal Skull. If this film is going to be what we want it to be (i.e. $1 billion hit) it's going to have to be a genuinely great movie. This is a movie most loyal moviegoers will hit regardless (I expect $100+ million opening weekend), but if you want to get casual moviegoers in the way Top Gun did, you need the movie to be truly good. Spielberg & Ford are capable of it, but I am curious to see if they get there.
What It Could Mean for the Rest of the Year: There's honestly not a lot of legacy/long-standing sequels this year that are clear box office prizes. Transformers, Ghostbusters, and Hunger Games all have movies out that will be big deals, but Transformers hasn't hit $1 billion in a while, and the latter two never have. I struggle to see any of them approaching that summit if Indiana Jones can't.
Release Date: 7/14/23
Reasons It Will Hit $1 Billion: Here's the deal, I'm not just adding this because Tom Cruise proved last year that he can hit $1 billion largely on his own cache (though that's part of it). But what I am adding it for is that the franchise clearly has gained fans in the past few installments, largely by making the movies consistently more impressive & using better, stronger visuals. Those two things combined has me curious how this will play out. I hate the name (just give it two different names for Dead Reckoning...people will get over if it ends in a cliffhanger), but think this will outdo the last film, which was the highest-grossing in the series at $790 million worldwide in 2018. Could Cruise get back-to-back $1 billion hits in separate franchises?
Reasons It Won't Hit $1 Billion: No film in this series has made it past even $800 million, and unlike Top Gun, there have been lots of opportunities as this is the seventh film in the series. The movie doesn't have the same crossover appeal that you'd expect from Top Gun: Maverick (there's rarely a particularly romantic love story) or an MCU film (the movies are a bit more intellectual than you'd get for a comic book film...not a slam-Mission Impossible kind of loves its own convolution when it's at its worst). And while Cruise might be box office insurance, no actor can consistently command $1 billion at the box office, only characters like Luke Skywalker and Anna & Elsa can do that.
What It Could Mean for the Rest of the Year: There's not a lot of similar films to Mission Impossible coming out this year. Fast X has potential, but the last two installments of the series couldn't pass $1 billion and it might indicate that its fans have started to tire of a franchise that is more noted for offscreen drama than onscreen. Dune will surely outgross its last film with HBO Max seeming to not impact box office anymore, but the last movie only made $400 million-that's a tall leap to get to $1 billion even if getting to $600+ million might be a good way to have spinoffs of the franchise.
Release Date: 12/25/23
Reasons It Will Hit $1 Billion: Because it's one of only two films on this list to be a direct sequel to a $1 billion film; technically The Marvels qualifies as a direct sequel to a $1 billion franchise hit, but antipathy toward Larson's character & the fact that the first one came out between Avengers 3 & 4 (when MCU intrigue was at its peak, and Captain Marvel promised some answers to how Endgame would turn out) mean I'm less bullish on that one equalling its predecessor. But Aquaman-there's little reason to indicate this wouldn't be a big deal this Christmas. It's supposed to be the sendoff not only to Jason Momoa as the title character, but also (according to online rumors) the final appearance of Ben Affleck's Batman and this could be the final film, period, of the DCEU, which will add an extra level of fan push to see it in theaters after 16 movies.
Reasons It Won't Hit $1 Billion: It's possible that people just don't care about the DCEU anymore. With the specific exception of Aquaman, no film in the series has ever made $1 billion, and no film since then has even cleared $500 million. Antipathy toward the Wonder Woman sequel and a lack of investment thanks to big-name stars like Affleck, Gal Gadot, & Henry Cavill all leaving the franchise has me wondering if people will even care about the sendoff...but I will say, after Indiana Jones, this is the one that I think will be my safest bet for $1 billion if it's as well-received as its predecessor.
What It Could Mean for the Rest of the Year: Though The Batman was a hit last year, I struggle to see a way that Aquaman will have much of a halo effect on the rest of the DCEU releases. Shazam: Fury of the Gods is following a surprise hit, but I wonder how much affinity people will have for such a silly film in the otherwise dour series, and both The Flash (with its deeply problematic leading man) and Blue Beetle (with an unknown star, a little known comic book character...if The Rock couldn't launch a franchise, how will this movie fare?). I sense comic movie burnout in general is starting to set in, but it's hitting harder on the DC side of the page, especially if Aquman can't even get $1 billion.
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