How to Tell if Biden is Exceeding Expectations on Election Night

Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)

Yesterday, we talked about the potential for a Donald Trump upset, which I think is real enough that we should be discussing it, though it's worth noting that it would be considered an upset, and a bigger upset than what we experienced in 2016, where Clinton's lead was present throughout most of the race, but pretty inconsistent (it's worth noting in hindsight that people were far more inclined to think "do I have to vote for Hillary?" than "I don't want to vote for Trump" than we thought at the time).  Today, I want to look in the reverse-I want to look at what an upset in Joe Biden's favor might look like on Election Day as I feel like it's worth pointing out both sides of this "upset" coin.

The problem with trying to figure out what an upset in Joe Biden's favor is is that Joe Biden is expected to win the election, so a Biden win, as a result, wouldn't be considered an upset.  In fact, Biden is expected to win by a relatively healthy margin.  Looking at 538, Biden is the favorite in not only the "Big 6" (NC/AZ/FL/PA/MI/WI) but also NE-2, ME-2 and Georgia.  If the model were exactly right, then, Biden would receive 351 electoral votes, more than what he & Barack Obama received in 2012, and just a bit short of what they received in 2008.  But what I want to look at today is what if the model is off not in Trump's direction, but roughly in the same direction to Biden-what is a sign on Election Night, not just for a good night for Democrats, but one that exceeds their expectations?

I would argue that if we're "setting the goal posts," any night for the Democrats where they win the White House and win the Senate, by pretty much any margin, is a "good" night.  That's a pickup of two branches of the legislative trifecta, and a seismic win even if it's with 270 votes & 50/50 Senate-Democrats should be happy if that happens.  But if we're looking at a night that exceeds expectations in the same way that, say, 2008 did, they need to do better.  I think Biden would for sure need to win the Big 6 seats, as well as enough seats to beat his margin in 2008 (363 votes).  A night where Biden exceeds expectations probably means wins in at least two of the three of Texas, Ohio, and Iowa, all places where he is behind in most models, albeit by a small margin.  It's worth noting that in 2008 Obama swept all of the states that were remotely competitive (and took Indiana, one generally considered not to be competitive).  Biden could do this, and there are a couple of states that might be considered an "Indiana" in this scenario (South Carolina, Alaska, Missouri, & Kansas all come to mind), but honestly-picking up ten Trump states plus two Trump districts would be pretty huge.

Jon Ossoff, one of 7 Democrats who might signal a
landslide victory for the party

The better measure, though, if the Democrats are having a "better than expected" night would be in the Senate.  The Senate, from my vantage point, has a few classes when it comes to vulnerable seats.  There's the seats I think are lost to the incumbent party (Arizona, Colorado, Alabama, & Maine).  There's the seats that probably favor the Democrats, but are competitive enough that you should pay attention (North Carolina & Michigan).  And then there's the truest of tossups (Iowa), which in a Biden over-performing scenario would certainly go to Theresa Greenfield.  Those are the races that, if we went solely on the polls, are probably going to go blue (save Alabama, which will be red), and will make up a Democratic majority.

If the Democrats are having a "better than expected" night (keeping in mind, again, that the Democrats are projected to win the Senate based on polling), there are a lot of upsets that could be on the table.  That's because seven seats have the Republican favored, but not by much.  These seven are the two seats in Georgia, plus the seats in Texas, South Carolina, Alaska, Kansas, & Montana.  Some of these states are ones where Biden has a shot statewide (specifically GA/TX), but none of them are states he'd be favored by much, and in most cases, he'd lose.  That being said, in 2008 Barack Obama didn't win Alaska, but he still saw a Senate pickup there, and the same was true of Indiana four years later.  If the Democrats don't take any of these seats (certainly possible), they probably had a marginal or average night based on the polls (if they lose more than one of MI/NC/IA, they had a bad night).  But if a great night for the Republicans is just hanging on in the White House & Senate, and an expected night for Biden is a respectable pickup of the White House plus a slim majority in the Senate, the answer to what constitutes a "huge" victory for the Democrats comes in these seven Senate seats.  If they convert one, it's a big deal-more than one, it's probable that the Democrats are having a once-in-a-generation election night.