 |
| Biden & Pelosi aren't the only Democrats attempting to take control |
Currently, while there are a number of states that have governors of one party and state legislatures of the other (Maryland, Massachusetts, & Michigan come to mind), there's only one state in the country that has a different party in power in their State Senate as they do in their State House (Minnesota). As a result of this, other than the Gopher State, either state legislatures will have free reign to do what they like with a governor of their party when it comes to drawing congressional and state legislative districts or they will face off with their governor in a head-to-head match. That is, unless the parties are able to flip a state legislature in the meantime, thus depriving the parties in power from their gerrymandering authority. We don't normally focus on state legislative races here, but I wanted to give you a look at where the most important battles for the state legislature are waging in conjunction with once-a-decade redistricting.
It's worth noting that, like a lot of things this election, the Republicans appear to be playing defense as a whole. The only state that could have a chance to flip to the Republicans is the Alaska State House, but while control there is important, since Alaska only has one congressional seat it doesn't ultimately matter in terms of congressional reapportionment.
Every other legislature that could flip seems to be a Democratic pickup opportunity, though it's worth noting that not all of them are seats that will matter for congressional gerrymandering. Pennsylvania, for example, does have a number of congressional districts that could be gerrymandered, but the state has a Democratic governor, so even if the Democrats don't flip the State House, the Republicans won't be able to override a veto from Gov. Wolf without support from the left. A similar scenario is occurring in Michigan, which has an independent commission that draws its districts, but if Republicans wanted to overturn that commission (they've made no secret that they do), they'd need Gov. Whitmer's signature (which ain't happening), and so the very flippable Michigan State House matters for other votes, but not here. And it's worth noting that an increasingly competitive race in Missouri's governor's race (which favors the Republicans, but is becoming a more plausible upset) would definitely end the trifecta in that state, though neither of the state legislatures appear plausible flips.
For my money, then there are six states that could flip a seat where either the current party has the "trifecta," the states could flip to form a trifecta, or the governor doesn't currently have a role in the redistricting process (either through state law or because the current legislature can override the veto). If you care about redistricting (you should), these are the six states that matter, and so I'm going to review them below, what the easiest path for the Democrats to grab a seat (or another seat) at the table is, and what this could mean for 2022 House elections. We'll go alphabetically.
State: Arizona
Christine Marsh, Democrat for the 28th Senate district
Vulnerable State Legislature: Senate & House
What Do They Need to Win: +3 in Senate, +2 in House
Who Is Impacted?: It's always hard to tell with larger states exactly how they would shore up a district or impact an incumbent. My gut, though, says, that the Republicans (who currently control all three branches of the trifecta) would try to take out either Rep. Tom O'Halleran or (if she wins) Hiral Tiperneni, both of which represent districts that went for Donald Trump in 2016, and could be drawn to be in redder districts. Ann Kirkpatrick or Greg Stanton are also options, but the former seem like easier targets for the party if they get full range on redrawing districts.
Path of Least Resistance: Arizona sends one senator & two House reps for each district. For most of these races we'll look at Hillary Clinton numbers (and other statewide races if I have them, which here I do). Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D) won three districts in 2018 that currently have Republican State Senators-the 17th, 20th, & 28th, and lost a fourth by less than two points (the 6th). If the Democrats are to take a majority, it's going to be in these four districts. The 28th is the bluest (it's also the only one that went for Clinton), and already has two Dem House representatives even though State Sen. Kate McGee was able to hold on in 2018. If Mark Kelly dominates the way he has, it's probable that educator Christine Marsh bests McGee here. The other districts have some promising options (all are held by Republican state senators and all but one Republican state representative), with Republicans badly fumbling in the sixth (ousting incumbent Sen. Sylvia Allen for perennial candidate Wendy Rogers), potentially costing them the seat. It's worth noting that the Democrats hold no seats that Martha McSally won in 2018, so unless the state is more conservative than it was in 2018 (which polling doesn't bear out), it's probable they can hold all of their current seats-at least one, if not both branches seem quite achievable.
State: Iowa
Kelcey Brackett, Democratic candidate in
the 91st district
Vulnerable State Legislature: House
What Do They Need to Win: +4 seats
Who Is Impacted?: Iowa technically has an independent commission draw its lines, which is why they're so competitive-there's virtually no gerrymandering. That being said, it's entirely possible that with a Republican trifecta, the Hawkeye State's conservatives might push to eliminate the independent commission since it's costing them at least one seat in the US House. We still don't know who will win the three congressional seats here, though I'd wager (at this point) that Democrats are favored to hold these seats, and so Republicans might be tempted to make things harder, especially on either Rep. Abby Finkenauer or (potential) Rep. Rita Hart if they hold this branch.
Path of Least Resistance: We again have numbers statewide, not just Hillary's, but also the 2018 gubernatorial & state auditor's races, the former lost by the Democrats narrowly & the latter won by the Democrats narrowly. We'll focus most on Rob Sand's win as Auditor since that gives the Democrats their best case scenario. Sand won thirteen seats that are currently held by Republicans, which provides a lot of room for the Democrats, but Iowa's very local politics also has a few Democrats battling for the State House in districts Sand lost. Retirements are going to be the best bet for the Democrats, with incumbents in the 67th, 91st, & 95th (all Sand districts) all retiring or running for higher office, though they'll need to hold a number of seats & to oust at least one incumbent in order to take the majority.
State: Minnesota
Aleta Borrud, Democrat for the 26th district
Vulnerable State Legislature: Senate
What Do They Need to Win: +2 seats
Who Is Impacted?: This is a pretty tricky question, and one that will largely depend on the November 3rd elections. I say this because Minnesota is probably going to lose one district in redistricting, and at least two incumbents (Democrat Collin Peterson & Republican Jim Hagedorn) are vulnerable, and because this is a case where the Democrats could gain a trifecta, rather than break one up. As a result, this is a situation where Democrats might be tempted to gerrymander themselves If both men lose (the most likely outcome?), it would be fairly easy for the Democrats to draw Michelle Fischbach (the R against Peterson) into a ruby-red district with Rep. Tom Emmer, and try & shore up the five remaining Democrats by splitting out the suburbs, thus ensuring that the Republicans lose at least one seat in 2020. If the Republicans hold the State Senate, it's probable that the Democrats wouldn't be able to draw such a district without putting one of the three marginal Democrats (Angie Craig, Dean Phillips, or potential winner Dan Feehan) at risk.
Path of Least Resistance: The Democrats essentially only need one pickup in Minnesota at this point, due to the retirement of State Sen. Paul Anderson (R) in the suburban 44th district; Anderson was an Manchin-esque anomaly (this district went to Democratic Sen. Tina Smith by 18-points in 2018), and his retirement assures the Democrats will win here. For my money, their best bet to win would be to take a pair of State Senate seats around the growing populous of Rochester (the 25th & 26th), where Democrats Sara Flick & Aleta Borrud are taking on incumbent Republicans in districts Smith won by 4 & 7 points, respectively. Democrats also have an opportunity in the 14th (around St. Cloud) and the 56th (the southern suburbs), but I think the Rochester seats might be their best bets. Matt Little in the conservative 58th district is probably a goner for the Democrats (he won his last election in a huge upset), but combined with Anderson & at least four strong flip possibilities, I think this might be the easiest option on this list for the Democrats to win.
State: Kansas
Jo Ella Hoye, Democratic candidate
in the 17th district
Vulnerable State Legislature: House
What Do They Need to Win: +1 seat
Who Is Impacted?: Unless the Democrats pull off an upset in KS-2 (I don't think they will), there's only one Democrat that could be gerrymandered in Kansas, and that's recently elected Rep. Sharice Davids, currently in her first term. Davids is a shoo-in for a second term, but would be pretty easy to gerrymander into a more difficult seat if the Democrats aren't able to stop a Republican gerrymander.
Path of Least Resistance: There is no way that the Democrats take back the majority in Kansas, but that's not why it's listed as a potential trifecta state. Currently, the Republicans have a supermajority in the Kansas State House, but if they lose one seat that supermajority will disappear, and as a result, the Republicans won't be able to override Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly's veto of the gerrymandered map. Therefore, if the Democrats get that one seat, they wouldn't win the House, but they'd get Kelly a blue seat at the table. There are no Democrats in seats that Kelly lost in 2018, which is a good sign, and for my money the two best seats they could take are in the 17th and 20th. That's because both districts went to Kelly (by 20 points & 19 points, respectively) and Hillary Clinton (by less than 2-points each). Both districts are in the Kansas City metro area, the center-point of State Sen. Barbara Bollier's US Senate campaign, so this is totally achievable, and along with Minnesota, feels like a pretty good bet for the Democrats.
State: North Carolina
Sarah Crawford, Democrat for the 18th Senate district
Vulnerable State Legislature: Senate & House
What Do They Need to Win: Senate +5 (or +4 and to win the Lieutenant Governor's race) and House +6
Who Is Impacted?: A lot of people. North Carolina redrew their seats mid-decade (you'll see at least two seats, the 2nd & 6th, go blue in two weeks, and possibly a third in the 8th)-all of that could change again if the Republicans get to redraw the districts. North Carolina doesn't allow the governor to veto legislative maps, so they have to win one of the two houses in order to have a seat at the table. North Carolina is one of the least democratic (note the small 'd') states in the country in that its state legislature is gerrymandered to the hilt, so this could be a watershed moment for the Democrats if they win one of the branches, they'll be able to protect the 2-3 freshmen House members that could be elected in November.
Path of Least Resistance: For the Senate, there are two districts that Hillary won in 2016 that are held by Republicans (the 18th & 39th), the latter of which is open and a super easy Democratic pickup. If they want two more seats, it'd need to come either in the 1st, 7th, or 11th districts, none of which went to Clinton, but the Democrats appear to be pushing hard; I will say that the most plausible path to a Democratic majority would be four seats & winning the LG race statewide rather than a fifth seat here. The House is probably an easier lift even though they need less wins. Clinton won only one of the districts (the 9th), which is considered a probable flip, but no other R-held seats, so the Democrats would need to take some combination of the 12th, 22nd, 45th, 63rd, 74th, & 82nd in order to get the remaining five seats. This is a stretch, but would have huge rewards if the Democrats could nab either of these seats, potentially ending a power-hold that the Republicans have held for years in the Tarheel State.
State: Texas
Joanna Cattanch, Democrat for the 108th district
Vulnerable State Legislature: House
What Do They Need to Win: +9 seats
Who Is Impacted?: Texas is the big cheese on this list. With the Democrats poised to pickup at least a few House seats in 2020 (potentially in the range of 5-6 if Biden wins the state), and nab another seat as a part of congressional reapportionment, the difference between a Texas gerrymander and one where the Democrats would have a seat at the table could be seismic. Honestly-it could be the difference between the minority and the majority for the Democrats in the US House in 2022.
Path of Least Resistance: Winning control of the Texas State House might be the heaviest lift of this in terms of number of seats, but it's not the hardest one to achieve, and honestly this might be bordering on a tossup situation. That's because the ten-year-old gerrymander from Texas assumed the suburbs of Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, & Houston would all stay red-they didn't. As a result, this is a one-time only opportunity for the Democrats (there are plenty of people in Texas to gerrymander this back to where it looked ten years ago if the GOP wants), but it's achievable if they vote heavily in increasingly swingy districts. Some of the best opportunities, according to recent polling are in the 26th, 54th, 66th, 67th, 94th, 96th, 97th, 108th, 112th, 134th, & 138th. All of these districts showed the Democrats up in seats currently held by Republicans. This could change (the 138th, for example, was a lead of one-point), but if the Democrats win it'll probably be through these districts (and holding most of their own).
No comments:
Post a Comment