Black Women and the Battle for the US House

Reps. Lucy McBath (D-GA) & Lauren Underwood (D-IL)

In 2018, Democrats saw a lot of potential future stars arise in liberal bastions across the country, as women of color won primaries (and even defeated incumbents) in blue districts across the country.  For all of the pejorative takes (including even using the term) from the press, the "Squad" felt historic for a reason-here was a group of young women-of-color who were not only winning seats of political power, but also were gaining incredible amounts of press while doing so.

But two women who didn't get the same level of media coverage stand out to me in particular, and their achievements in 2018 are what I want to talk about today as we conclude our trio of articles this week about "Women, Congress, and 2020" (if you missed the first two click here and here).  In 2018, now-Reps. Lauren Underwood and Lucy McBath did something that had never been done before-they defeated incumbents in a general election, both of whom, it's worth noting, were white Republicans.  Before 2018, no black woman had ever defeated an incumbent in a general; they'd done so in primaries (Ayanna Pressley, for example, or Carol Moseley-Braun), but never in a general election.

As we talked about on Wednesday, diversity in candidates is great-it increases the odds that underrepresented peoples might win an office, and it certainly helps add new voices to the public conversation, but it's still important to actually win.  There has been, for too long, a supposition that women of color cannot win seats in overwhelmingly white or Republican-held constituencies, and that if a black woman runs, they are not given the same level of support as a white woman or white man might in running in such a race.  Part of why this might have been supposed is because, until 2018, whether through this being a reality (some form of the "Bradley Effect") or because black women were not given this opportunity, it'd never been done.  What McBath & Underwood did was not just exceed expectations & defeat an incumbent Republican (which is hard to do, particularly in districts Donald Trump won), but they showed that they can win as black women running in districts with predominantly white constituencies.

The question becomes, then, did anything change from what McBath & Underwood did in 2018, and how the DCCC recruited in 2020.  Overall, there's some progress, though for my taste not enough-I feel like we should be seeing more black women getting opportunities based on the paths that McBath and Underwood have paved.  Still, it's worth noting that four women, and one in particular, could join them this fall if the Democrats have a strong enough wave.

Babylon City Councilwoman Jackie Gordon (D-NY)

In my opinion, the closest we have to a race that mirrors the circumstances of Underwood and McBath's races is in New York's 2nd congressional district.  This seat, in Long Island, voted for Trump in 2016 by 10 points but went for President Obama in 2012 by 4-points.  We're still trying to figure out exactly which of those states might be ones that will go back to Biden in 2020 (and which will stay in Trump's column), but suffice it to say it's potentially competitive, and the Democrats have scored a strong candidate, Babylon City Councilwoman Jackie Gordon, who is taking on State Rep. Andrew Garbarino.  Polls have been scarce, but Gordon has done extremely well with her fundraising-she's sitting on 10x the cash of Garbarino, and has out-raised him 4:1.  This isn't exactly the same as Underwood & McBath, as Gordon isn't taking out an incumbent Republican, but it is still a chance for a black woman to win a seat currently held by a Republican (Peter King).

The other three seats are longer shots, but they are at least somewhat competitive, and in all cases they are taking on an incumbent rather than an open seat race.  Of the three, I feel best about NC-8, though all are an uphill climb.  Pat Timmons-Goodson, a former North Carolina Supreme Court Justice, is running against Rep. Richard Hudson in a district that was recently redrawn, but still went for Trump by 9 in 2016 & Romney by 4 in 2012.  She's been out-raised 2:10, but the district has some new territory for Hudson, and she's still raised over $1 million with multiple high-profile endorsements, and is in a state that will get a lot of national money due to its Pres/Gov/Sen races.

State Sen. Joyce Elliott (D-AR)

The second race doesn't have that support-Democrats won't be spending money in Arkansas, which could hurt former State Sen. Joyce Elliot in the 2nd congressional district.  This is the bluest of the Natural State's districts, but it's still pretty red (an 11-point victory for Trump), so the main question is how much ground can Biden take back with Trump increasingly unpopular, and will that translate to Elliot (rather than crossover support for Rep. French Hill).  Elliott is also being out-raised 2:1, but has amassed over $1 million in donations.

The final race I want to mention is in Ohio's 10th.  This feels like the biggest stretch of the bunch, mostly because the Democratic challenger, former congressional aide Desiree Tims, has not raised the kind of money you expect from someone who will knock out an incumbent (in this case Rep. Mike Turner); Tims has only gotten $600k in this race, pretty low compared to Gordon, Timmons-Goodson, & Elliott.  That said, OH-10 has potential.  Trump won it by seven, but Obama only lost it by two points; it also includes the Cincinnati suburbs, and as we've seen in the past few years, Trump has hemorrhaged support in the suburbs across the country.  I wouldn't bet on Tims, but this race at least warrants a place on your Election Night scorecard.

So, it doesn't look likely that someone will match McBath & Underwood this year; Gordon is by-far the best chance the Democrats have of a black woman picking up a Republican-held seat, but not against an incumbent.  However, if the wave is strong enough, as I mentioned last week when we were taking a look at if the House Democratic caucus have 100 women, Elliott, Timmons-Goodson, & even Tims are in a position where they might be able to capitalize on such a wave.