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| Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) |
So it's entirely possible that we'll see one more of these rundowns closer to the election, but...I doubt it. Unlike our recaps of actual elections, where polls and raw data actually matter and thus you can make logical guesses as to what is happening, here we're basing all of this on innuendo, anonymous gossip, and gut instinct, and as a result there's not a lot we can go on. As a result, while I do feel like the eventual nominee is on this list, and I do feel very confident she's in the Top 5, this is about as close I'm going to get to knowing the name of the eventual nominee.
That said, there are things that we do know that have changed since our last lineup. Several high-ranking names, including our previous #1, have withdrawn from consideration publicly. These include Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, who for some reason didn't want to go through this (perhaps it was that she's more focused on her work running the DSCC, which is getting a very good cycle with lots of opportunities this year), and thus is no longer under consideration. We also have seen Sen. Amy Klobuchar withdraw, almost certainly due to the backlash she's received since the death of George Floyd. Klobuchar received intense scrutiny for not charging one of the officers involved in Floyd's murder, Derek Chauvin, with criminal charges in the death of Wayne Reyes in 2006 when she was Hennepin County Attorney. Klobuchar has called these attacks unfair, but Biden wasn't going to risk the backlash that came with Klobuchar after such accusations.
I also took two names off of the list. Attorney General Sally Yates was a bit of a Hail Mary pass when I first made this list that went nowhere (it was in the early stages of the conversation about Biden's running-mate), and while I do think Maggie Hassan would be a decent choice for Biden (and she'd be toward the top of his list if he didn't have to worry about winning an election), she's not exciting enough to make it onto the ticket. There is a renewed pressure on the ticket to pick a woman-of-color (you're going to see this does play a pretty big role in shaping my Top 10 list below), and I doubt if they are going to pick a white woman they are going to pick someone without a national profile like Hassan.
So we are now left with a new Top 10, six of whom we have from the previous list, and four of whom are new to the conversation. Below I'll detail out the pro's and con's of these candidates, with #1 ultimately being who I think will be the nominee. I'm still including ten because while reports vary that Biden has cornered the list down to six (or even reports today that it's down to two), I think this is a fluid enough affair that ten names isn't inappropriate.
Honorable Mention: A lot of people are going to ask where Stacey Abrams is, and while I do think her stock has gone up in recent months (particularly as the Biden campaign tries to find a high-profile black woman who doesn't have a career in law enforcement to run with him), her experience is too limited and there's no indication that Biden is vetting her (or is interested in her joining the ticket). Her unorthodox campaign for the #2 spot appears to have failed, but considering the once-in-a-blue-moon sort of poll numbers that Jon Ossoff is getting in the Senate race, this was arguably the second worst decision she made politically in 2020. I also would love to put former Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis on this list, but again-there appears to be no indication that Biden is considering her. That said, Solis could be the sort of last-minute candidate that sometimes gets thrown into the conversation, as she's arguably the most qualified woman of color (Obama administration alumni, former US congresswoman) who is not being seriously listed as an option. Expect both of these women in a Biden cabinet, however.
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| Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) |
Age at Election: 49
Previous Experience: Governor (2019-Present), State Senator (2006-2015), State Representative (2001-2006)
Swing State?: Yes-Michigan
Previous TMROJ Ranking: 8
For Her: Whitmer has become something of a national celebrity in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, getting credit for her work to try and stop the virus in Michigan, and getting into multiple public feuds with Donald Trump that might endear her to the progressive wing of the party. Whitmer was one of the crucial backers of Biden during the primary, doing so at a time when there was still a worry that Bernie Sanders could stage a comeback, so Biden (a guy who values loyalty) knows he owes her. She'd certainly help in one of the most important swing states that Biden must flip (there's pretty much no win without him taking Michigan).
Against Her: Whitmer has three things going against her, which is why she nearly fell off of this list. First, Biden doesn't appear to need her to carry Michigan-it's the Trump state he seems most certain to take in November. Second, Michigan is one of the epicenters of the Covid-19 pandemic; she would (rightly) face backlash for putting her ambition ahead of her constituents if just two years into office she ran for a promotion. And last-I sincerely doubt that Klobuchar said "Biden should pick a woman of color" without permission from the Biden camp...which makes me think he's probably going with a woman of color.
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| Gov. Gina Raimondo (D-RI) |
Age at Election: 49
Previous Experience: Governor (2015-Present), State Treasurer (2011-15)
Swing State?: No-Rhode Island
Previous TMROJ Ranking: N/A
For Her: Raimondo is on this list principally because she's clearly on Biden's list. The Governor of Rhode Island, and the longest-serving sitting female governor, Raimondo is still an unusual choice for this list, and so the fact that she's obviously being vetted means that Biden is intrigued. She is a sitting governor, so she'd get some credit for the Covid-19 handling and Biden could use that to counter Trump, and she's young-only 49 despite a pretty impressive career in Rhode Island.
Against Her: Before the Covid-19 outbreak, Raimondo was not popular, and her tenure as governor has had a lot of bumps (particularly a state foster care scandal that would surely be risky to put out on your ticket considering how reliant Biden is on turning out suburban voters). Also, even her handling of the Covid-19 pandemic has not been without criticism (remember when she briefly tried to ban New Yorkers from entering the state?), and she doesn't bring in a swing state or voting demographic. I'm kind of perplexed, honestly, why she's actually being vetted over other long-shots like Laura Kelly or Kirsten Gillibrand (who make more sense).
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| Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) |
Age at Election: 71
Previous Experience: US Senator (2013-Present)
Swing State?: No-Massachusetts
Previous TMROJ Ranking: N/A
For Her: I said in my last article that I didn't think that Elizabeth Warren would be the ultimate pick, but that there would be a time that she's seriously being considered, and I stand behind that, but there's enough evidence that I should at least consider I might have been wrong. Warren has definitely been vetted, and is the favorite of progressives. It's worth noting she polls well among African-Americans, even when compared to other African-American politicians who are being touted by the press as a way to turnout black voters. Warren & Biden also clearly get along quite well, and she'd be a way to cover Biden's left flank.
Against Her: Warren breaks the rule of being a running-mate: "do no harm." Forgetting that her Senate seat would go red if she was the nominee (which is a big deal), Warren is a risk when Biden's poll numbers indicate a risk isn't what he needs. She's far more liberal than Biden, to the point where she'd either have to lose credibility with the left-wing of the party by denouncing something like Medicare-4-All, or put Biden into an impossible position. Also, she's a senior citizen and white, providing almost no age or racial balance to the ticket. All-in-all, I think Warren is on Biden's list, but she'd be arguably the most foolish option he could go with at this juncture.
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| National Security Advisor Susan Rice (D-DC) |
Age at Election: 55
Previous Experience: National Security Advisor (2013-17), United Nations Ambassador (2009-13)
Swing State?: Not really. Rice has family connections to Maine (her mother is from there), but she lives in DC, which will obviously go blue.
Previous TMROJ Ranking: N/A
For Her: Rice presents a unique profile for Biden if she were to be picked. She's an insider's insider, which would normally be a deficit, but she's also someone who is incredibly experienced in a campaign where the media has put a disproportionate amount of pressure on Biden to pick someone who is "very qualified" to be president (considering her age). She's also one of the few black women who are in contention for the nomination that doesn't have a history in law enforcement, which the Biden administration is trying to avoid considering the popularity of judicial/police reforms in the Democratic Party.
Against Her: Rice comes with two major headaches. First, she's never held elected office before, and Biden's going to need someone who knows how to campaign-that might be Rice, but unlike every other woman on this list, we don't know what she's like in an actual retail politicking situation. Second, and more important, Rice comes with a renewed conversation about Benghazi. We saw how that scandal brought down one other woman on a major party ticket-will Biden really want to risk that conversation again? I'd bet on Rice for Secretary of State, but VP might be a tougher sell.
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| Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) |
Age at Election: 58
Previous Experience: US Senate (2013-Present), US House (1999-2013), State Representative (1993-99)
Swing State?: Yes-Wisconsin
Previous TMROJ Ranking: 6
For Her: Baldwin is the highest-ranking white woman on this list for a reason-she's the only white woman being vetted who, in my opinion, could genuinely help Biden add to his electoral column. Unlike Warren, Raimondo, or even Whitmer, Baldwin comes from a state that is truly a tossup. I think the conversations about Wisconsin being critical for Biden are not as omnipresent as they were four months ago (polling in Arizona, Florida, and to a lesser degree Georgia & North Carolina have opened up the map a bit more for him), but that doesn't mean it's not important, and not a state that Biden is desperate to pin down. If they feel that Baldwin is the edge they need to win the state, I wouldn't be stunned to see her as a surprise nominee.
Against Her: A few things. First, I think Klobuchar's comment was a proxy from the Biden camp-they're signaling that they want a woman-of-color to the public. Second, Baldwin to some degree is in a similar boat to Warren-she's much more progressive than Biden, and she'd have to sacrifice some of that on a ticket. And third (and most importantly), her seat would be at risk of going red in a special election, costing the Democrats a Senate seat. These are a lot of debits that come with pinning down a swing state that Biden might well win on his own, and that is less pivotal than it was a few months ago.
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| Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) |
Age at Election: 52
Previous Experience: US Senate (2017-Present), US House (2013-17), Assistant Secretary of Veterans Affairs (2009-11)
Swing State?: No-Illinois
Previous TMROJ Ranking: 3
For Her: I'm moving Duckworth down a couple of slots, but it's worth noting that that's not because I have lost faith in her as a quality nominee, just that I think other people have a better chance. Duckworth has a lot going for her. Senator, veteran, young mother, and a woman-of-color (whose Senate seat isn't at risk if she's the nominee), Duckworth is the sort of underdog who wins in these situations. She's also an Obama administration alum, and considering that a large part of Biden's campaign appears to be a "third term of Obama," picking someone who underlines that message is a good call.
Against Her: Two major things. For starters, there's no obvious avenue that she brings to the ticket other than she'd be a qualified president-she doesn't come from a swing state and doesn't appear to be the favorite of a specific important Democratic constituency. The second big thing is, though, that she has quite young children (including one who just turned two) & is very young herself (by political standards)-she'll have other opportunities to go on a national ticket...would she want to subject herself to a campaign this brutal?
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| Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D-GA) |
Age at Election: 50
Previous Experience: Mayor of Atlanta (2018-Present), Atlanta City Council (2010-18)
Swing State?: Yes-Georgia
Previous TMROJ Ranking: N/A
For Her: Lance Bottoms is the highest-ranking new name on this list, and that's because, quite honestly, I think we genuinely need to take her seriously as a running-mate for Joe Biden. While Lance Bottoms does have a history in law enforcement (as both a prosecutor and a judge), she has made much of her tenure as Atlanta's mayor about judicial reforms. She's a black woman from an increasingly important swing state (where Biden will need mad turnout in-and-around Atlanta to win), and has made headlines for getting into high-profile public fights about Covid and criminal justice with Brian Kemp & Donald Trump.
Against Her: The biggest deficit for Lance Bottoms is she's still pretty new to the limelight, and it's unusual to pick a mayor as a running-mate even though Atlanta has roughly the same amount of people as Wyoming. Lance Bottoms therefore comes with risks that people will claim she's not "ready" to be president, and also her tenure is less-vetted by the public. For example, her votes while on the City Council on giving non-violent repeat offenders harsher criminal sentences (the panhandling bills in 2012) will not play well if the election focuses on progressive judicial reforms.
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| Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM) |
Age at Election: 61
Previous Experience: Governor (2019-Present), US House (2013-19), State Secretary of Health (2004-07)
Swing State?: No-New Mexico
Previous TMROJ Ranking: 5
For Her: I'm moving Lujan Grisham up the list for a few reasons. First, she's purportedly the only governor that's still at the top tier of candidates, and I think Biden would be smart to pick a governor to capitalize on the popularity they gained due to their handling of the Covid-19 pandemic (plus, she comes with experience in Congress, which is crucial if she's going to be stumping for bills on Capitol Hill, a big part of the VP's job). Second, while she is a lawyer, I can find no evidence that she ever worked in criminal justice (instead, she worked on other legal matters for the state). And finally, with Arizona & Florida becoming more pivotal states on the map for Biden, he needs to find a way to shore up Latino votes in swing states-the first Latina running-mate might be a way to do that.
Against Her: The biggest issue with Lujan Grisham is that New Mexico is still in the middle of a pandemic, albeit not to the same degree as Whitmer in Michigan. She could also face similar criticisms about abandoning the state when it needs her leadership...but it's not to the same degree as Whitmer, whose state has had more public issues with the pandemic. I think Lujan Grisham makes a lot of sense, and is being underestimated by pundits.
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| Rep. Val Demings (D-FL) |
Age at Election: 63
Previous Experience: US House (2017-Present), Orlando Police Chief (2007-11)
Swing State?: Yes-Florida
Previous TMROJ Ranking: 9
For Her: Demings has gone from the kind of "they should totally look into her" sort of spitballing that always happens when you pitch someone in the US House as a running-mate to "this person seriously could be the next vice president." Demings comes from the voter-rich Orlando area (she could get enough turnout there to carry the state for Biden), and she's been acing all of her press tour spots as a campaign surrogate (she's great on the stump). Demings would be an atypical choice, but the Biden campaign has been taking her seriously, and part of being chosen as the VP nominee is being the right person for the right time-is that Demings?
Against Her: Two things, and they are pretty clear. One, she's a congresswoman in her second term-while I think she's proven in interviews she's ready to take on this critique, the "ready from Day One" conversation is going to happen with Demings in a way it wouldn't with Harris, Lujan Grisham, or Duckworth. Secondly, and more pressing, her tenure as Orlando Police Chief opens her up to criticism in a way no other candidate on this list would on the forefront of criminal justice; this is why Demings has made a point of talking about judicial reforms in interviews (she knows she's vulnerable). If the Biden campaign doesn't want to go with Harris and there isn't something particularly damning in her Orlando Police files, I think Demings could be the pick.
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| Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) |
Age at Election: 56
Previous Experience: US Senate (2017-Present), California Attorney General (2011-17), District Attorney (2004-11)
Swing State?: No-California
Previous TMROJ Ranking: 2
For Her: I mean, at this point the conversation isn't so much "will it be X or will it be Y"-it's "will it be Kamala or will it not be Kamala?" Harris makes sense-she's a sitting US Senator, she comes with experience, she's had most of her dirty laundry already aired on the presidential campaign, and she gets along well with Biden. Harris is a dynamic speaker, funny, and would be set up well if indeed Biden only serves one term (a conversation for another day). I think if Biden wants to pick a black woman for his ticket (and that does appear to be the case based on who he's vetting), you basically need a reason as to why Harris wouldn't be that choice since she's the most qualified. I haven't seen (publicly) a reason that she wouldn't be.
Against Her: Her career as a prosecutor could come back to haunt her-despite her putting criminal justice front-and-center (like Demings, she knows she's vulnerable here and she also knows she's a serious candidate for VP, so she's trying to negate these attacks), this will come up, and could dampen enthusiasm for her in communities of color which Biden needs to win the White House. But I think what might ultimately stop her is that there's no surprise around her nomination. This might be a good thing (Biden wants a VP, not a candidate), but without a traditional convention, picking an expected VP is going to rob him of successive days of headlines that he might have otherwise had with a jam-packed DNC.
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