How Stacey Abrams is Breaking the VP Mold

House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D-GA)

Running for vice president is a bizarre sort of contest, essentially because you're not actually running for it.  In many ways, it feels a lot like an old presidential primary, where someone like Hubert Humphrey in 1972 was "running" for president only if he got the nomination handed to you on a silver platter by the powers-that-be.  This is a rarity in American politics, where most things you have to fight tooth-and-nail to get, but running for VP is something you play by a "keep a distance" rulebook.  This is no different this year.  We have figures like Amy Klobuchar, Val Demings, Catherine Cortez Masto, and Kamala Harris who beg off with an "I'm not focused on it" which is basically politician for "I'd do in in a heartbeat, but I don't want mud on my face if I don't get it."  Other figures, like Gretchen Whitmer and Michelle Lujan Grisham, both likely on Biden's shortlist, have been a bit more coy or stand-offish about the speculation, not necessarily turning it down, but insisting "it won't be them, and that's not really something they're interested in" (even though Biden could probably change their mind).  So far we haven't had any Sherman-esque situations where someone has flat out said "no-I will not run" perhaps because considering Biden's age and polling numbers, any person who ever wants to be president would have to be crazy to turn down the running-mate slot (which may be why the only person who won't be the running-mate is Michelle Obama, and media speculation around her running with Biden when she easily could have been at the top of the ticket if she had any ambition whatsoever to do so, is silly).

And then, there's Stacey Abrams.  Abrams is by all-accounts on Biden's radar.  She's a popular figure with progressives, hails from an increasingly swing-y state, is young, dynamic, and a woman of color (in an election where I think Biden would be wise to pick a woman of color).  But Abrams has gone out-of-her-way to insist she should be Biden's running-mate.  While Elizabeth Warren has also stated point-blank she'd say yes to being Biden's running-mate, Warren hasn't really pursued that position.  Abrams, though, has gone out of her way to ensure that she's in the conversation.  In an interview with Elle, she stated "I would be an excellent running mate.  I have the capacity to attract voters by motivating typically ignored communities.  I have a strong history of executive and management experience in the private, public, and nonprofit sectors.  I've spent 25 years in independent study in foreign policy.  I am ready to help advance an agenda of restoring America's place in the world.  If I am selected, I am prepared and excited to serve."

This is a huge statement.  While I've seen on occasion someone who was clearly in the running for a Senate appointment make express similar sentiments (specifically Barney Frank when John Kerry resigned from the Senate), it's not something people normally do when they are running for VP.  At this point in the game, it's kind of a time to see who would be the bigger advocate for Biden-at the end of the day, no one votes for the running-mate-they vote for the top of the ticket.  Warren, Klobuchar, Harris-they're out stumping for Biden, making the case for him at the top of the ticket, mostly because that's what they'll have to do as the running-mate.  While the Vice President has their own agenda and own political future to worry about, from the convention until the election, their only job is talking up and defending the guy at the top of the ticket, because if he's sunk, so are they.

You're probably going to assume that I'm going to chastise Abrams here, and in some ways I kind of want to be critical of this strategy.  There is a certain risk that Biden will see her public entreaties to join his campaign as below the process (after all, Biden himself had to go through the ridiculous "I kind of want to be vice president" route twelve years ago), or that she "won't be a team player."  But I don't know that that's the right message to take away from this, and I don't know if this is actually a terrible move from Abrams.

Abrams has put herself in a unique, potentially dangerous corner politically.  She lost in 2018.  How she lost is abominable and the sort of election that historians will parcel through as a "sham election" because her opponent was able to suppress her voters, but ultimately she did lose, and unlike everyone we just listed up-top, her competitors for this job, she doesn't have an office right now she can use as a perch.  She's not a governor like Whitmer & Lujan Grisham, showing how she can attract great headlines through her leadership.  She's not a senator or congresswoman, casting vital votes that the Biden campaign could use to their advantage.  She is essentially an out-of-work politician, and Biden's success has put a ticking clock on her ability to win another major office.  She declined both Senate races in 2020 (still think this was a foolish move-Steve Bullock looks great for his election, and Abrams may well have two sitting George Republicans in a middle of a scandal she could be facing in November), which means she has to wait until 2022 to run again if she isn't on the ticket.  In 2022, there's a very strong possibility she'd have to run against an incumbent Republican governor in a red state with a Democrat in the White House during what will still likely be a sluggish economy...that's not a great way to win again, and she's at that point a two-time loser (very few of which ever become president, which is obviously Abrams' ultimate goal here).  She could run in 2026, but she'll be eight years out of office-who's to say that the Georgia Democratic Party won't have someone else that might be preferred by that time?  Politics is a fickle business, and the "fresh new face" ages quickly without success keeping it in the limelight.  Abrams' prospects are increasingly looking like that of Beto O'Rourke-once the golden child of the party, now a talking head without an opportunity to advance.

Which is why Abrams' strategy to push Biden's hand might work.  Abrams' biggest skills as a politician is that she's approachable, smart, and gives a great interview.  Better, in fact, than any of the women I've listed above with the potential exception of Harris.  She's genuine, relatable & great at synthesizing complex issues down to a level regular voters feel they understand, again, more than any of the above candidates other than maybe Warren.  And she's the sort of candidate that Sanders & Warren supporters would love.  Her biggest hindrances (that she has never won a major race, never held federal office, and isn't really experienced enough to be vice president, particularly for a man that'll be 78 on Inauguration Day) are ones she can't overcome, but by doing these interviews, by being a very public face, she can show to Biden: "I'd be an asset to your team-I'd be someone who could make the case for you, and bring in voters you will struggle to turn out."  That's the thing here-if Abrams can prove on the campaign trail that she could turn out young, otherwise disillusioned progressives, and in particular young African-Americans in places like Charlotte, Detroit, Milwaukee, and Jacksonville-her deficits don't matter.  And if she proves that she'd be the best, or perhaps only, candidate who could turn out these key swing state voters, Biden will need to take her seriously.  That's because Biden will pick a candidate who ensures he wins in November first, someone who he thinks will be an asset to his administration second.  It's probable that Biden would like someone more experienced than Abrams as his vice president, or someone he has worked with more in the past, but that won't matter one iota if she proves she'd be his best running-mate, if she proves she's the safest bet to get him to 270 electoral college votes.  It's a risky game, but it's one I think Abrams is running quite cannily.  I don't know if she'll end up winning, but Abrams is breaking the mold in the way she's approaching this "silent election" and no other VP candidate has me more fascinated to see how their strategy will fare.