Who Biden Should Pick

Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)

Vice President Biden has stated that he will announce his running-mate sometime before August 1st, which means that we have, at most two months or so left of speculation about whom he will pick to be the fourth woman to run on a major party's ticket, and (if polls are correct) to be the highest-ranking woman in the American government.  It seems like everyone has put forward their theory as to whom it should be, and while I have written about who I predict it will be, I have not done an article detailing out who makes the most sense.  That's what today is for.

Biden is probably going to pick from one of the following people based on public conversations: Tammy Baldwin, Catherine Cortez Masto, Tammy Duckworth, Kamala Harris, Maggie Hassan, Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren, Val Demings, Susan Rice, Michelle Lujan Grisham, Gretchen Whitmer, and Stacey Abrams.  These twelve women are a strong cross-section of the Democratic Party, and bring diversity of race, geography, experience, and political ideology.  One could make an argument that there are a few qualified names that probably deserve a spot on this list.  Kirsten Gillibrand would normally be considered a probable contender, but apparently the Biden team has shown little interest in her, the same with Laura Kelly, Sally Yates, and Hilda Solis.  While none of these women are who I would argue is the best option for Biden, I think they're all better fits than at least a couple of the women I just listed, and in the cases specifically of Kelly & Solis, I would at least have included them in the vetting process if I was running Biden's vice presidential selection team (if we were going to seriously vet maybe seven people, they'd both be on my list).

NSA Advisor Susan Rice (D-ME)

So let's work backward from the list of women who are being considered.  I think one of the first questions is what the candidate brings to the ticket, and specifically, if they will harm the ticket.  Only one of these women have a notable public scandal surrounding their tenure, and that's National Security Advisor Susan Rice.  Rice makes a lot of sense on-paper.  She's qualified, a longtime DC fixture, a woman of color, and someone with strong connections to the popular Obama administration.  But picking her would make the fall campaign be entirely about Benghazi, and while I think it's unfair to pin the blame for that attack on Rice, it's probably a conversation that's too costly unless Rice were to have a more lasting legacy elsewhere (i.e. if she became Biden's Secretary of State).  Therefore I'm taking Rice off of the table even though I get the point that her proponents are trying to make, and I don't dismiss it.

So then we take a peak at what we want in a running-mate, and Biden has done some of the handiwork for us there in guaranteeing a woman will be selected.  An all-male ticket would be a bad idea, particularly after women helped win back the US House last year, and seem like they may well do the same in 2020 with the Senate.  As a result, the main things we want from a vice presidential candidate will be someone that progressives can latch on toward, someone that is a good counter for Biden's age and race (ideally someone who would inspire younger communities of color to get out in a way that Biden might not be able to do on his own), and someone who might help with a point or two in some swing states (and here, the only swing states I'm going to count are Arizona, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Texas, NE-2/ME-2, and because Biden has polled softer than he should, Minnesota & Nevada).

Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL)

In my opinion, this takes a few names off of the list, specifically Maggie Hassan and Tammy Duckworth.  Hassan's state is not going to be lost, and while she's got a great resumé, it's not exciting enough for what people are expecting from Biden's running-mate.  The same has to be said for Duckworth-she'd make a solid running-mate, but she doesn't seem interested in the job, and there's little evidence she'd add any swing districts to the ticket or that her military background would be considered a big win for the ticket (Bob Dole, Al Gore, John Kerry, & John McCain are proof that a military record doesn't mean that people will vote for you).

That brings us to nine, and with that, I'm also going to take the governors off of the list.  Gretchen Whitmer does bring popularity in her home state onto the ticket, but Michigan has been a major center state for the Covid-19 pandemic, and I think her running runs the risk of criticism for putting her personal ambitions above her state's needs.  I feel like that'd be slightly less true for Lujan Grisham, but is enough to drop her while cornering down to a single choice.  She'd be in my Top 7, and if we were just picking a Top 7 to vet, she'd be on the list (specifically because unlike Whitmer, she brings congressional experience), but since we're eventually getting to one seat, that'd be why I'd take her off of the list.

Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)

I'm taking Tammy Baldwin off of the list now as well.  Baldwin's a solid bet-she's progressive, she has great strength in a critical state (if Wisconsin is the most important state on the map, Baldwin's proven she can win it twice), and she's the right age.  Baldwin, however, puts a Senate seat in jeopardy, and Biden can't really afford that.  It's probable that Scott Walker would run for Baldwin's seat in a special election, making it probable that the Democrats lose it (it's entirely plausible that there are no Democrats who could win the seat in such a quick campaign, as we discussed before).  Baldwin carries no major political risk, but she does pose a huge hurdle for a Biden administration that is going to need a Democratic majority in the Senate if they have any hopes of getting legislation or judicial nominations through.

Amy Klobuchar could argue that more than anyone else on this list, she is the reason that Biden is at the top of the ticket.  Her endorsement was a big deal, and launched Biden on Super Tuesday (it's doubtful he would have won the Minnesota primary without her), and she'd underline Biden's strategy in the Midwest.  She would be one of the seven candidates I'd vet.  But she comes with a couple of major hiccups.  For starters, she's too moderate-while I do think it's being over-estimated how much the Democrats are going to revolt if Biden picks a moderate, I feel like Klobuchar more than any serious contender is playing with fire, particularly considering her prosecutorial background.  Secondly, while she has no serious scandals, the stories about her treatment of staff, if there's any fire there, would be extremely damaging for Biden, particularly as he's picking someone whom he wants to be a Democratic standard-bearer in the future.  And third, adding Klobuchar to the ticket is adding another white person to the ticket in an era where Democrats need to start talking-the-talk rather than walking-the-walk when it comes to diversity and truly backing up women-of-color.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)

This is ultimately why Elizabeth Warren shouldn't be the choice, despite Twitter and some pollsters insisting she's the best option.  Warren has more deficits than almost any of the twelve women I listed above.  She doesn't add a swing state to the map, she gives up a Senate seat, she's the only candidate nearly as old as Biden, and she's not particularly popular in her home state.  She'd make a great president, but as she proved in 2020, she's kind of a lousy candidate-she got destroyed in New Hampshire, and wasn't even able to beat Bernie Sanders to be the progressive champion.  This sounds harsh, but I think Warren supporters need a cold dose of reality here-Warren might be a game-changing leader, but not enough of the electorate or even the Democratic Party seems to think so enough to give her the keys to the kingdom.  And in a country that is once again torn apart by racism, it's worth remembering that in 2000, 2004, and 2016, the Democrats couldn't get over-the-edge with all-white tickets despite running against deeply flawed Republicans-I don't think this is a coincidence.  So I would take Warren off of the list.

This leaves us with Cortez Masto, Abrams, Demings, and Harris.  I would vet all of these candidates save Abrams.  Abrams is potentially a game-changing leader, but she doesn't have the experience to be president.  Just because she'd be better than Donald Trump doesn't mean she's qualified for the job yet, and she needs to prove in the increasingly purple Georgia what she's like as an actual leader before she becomes POTUS; I would happily support her as a cabinet nominee or as a nominee after she became governor or senator, but not yet as a running-mate.

Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA)

The other three all have a lot going for them, but this is where I show my cards: the nominee should be Harris.  Kamala Harris brings more to the ticket in terms of national experience and legislative experience than Cortez Masto or Demings.  Both of these women are smart, accomplished women-of-color who I think would be strong compliments to Biden, but they don't have the national exposure that Harris comes with-she's already been vetted by the public, and largely came out unscathed.  Yes, like Warren she lost, but she also was smart enough to get out before anyone cast a ballot and proved how little momentum her campaign may have had.  Harris is media-savvy, a new generation of leader, and a perfect complement to Biden.  She has some downsides, specifically her criminal justice background which could be unpopular for a candidate in 2020, and she doesn't bring an obvious swing state to the table (unless she were able to drive up support in African-American communities, in which case she'd bring pretty much every swing state with her), but she's the obvious nominee for Biden.  Everyone else on this list is too unknown, too moderate, or too similar to Biden-Harris should be the nominee.  Biden/Harris is the winning team for 2020, and while that might feel anticlimactic, I'll get over the lack of surprise for our ticket if they beat Donald Trump.