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| Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) |
Weirdly I have become more confident since our last article about the candidates, not less, that Biden's running-mate will be a sitting female senator. This is not because other people haven't proven themselves. Particularly several high profile female governors (Gretchen Whitmer, Michelle Lujan Grisham, Laura Kelly) should be on Biden's shortlist, and might actually make better running-mates than some of these women (electorally), but it seems implausible that Biden will want to interrupt any state's chain-of-command while the coronavirus pandemic is happening, and while it's probable that states will be attempting to return-to-normal in November, absent a vaccine or an obvious treatment for the disease, this will be central to any governor's daily life, and it'd look gauche for them to be campaigning for a promotion during it. The only two other women who are not a senator that seem to be under consideration right now are Stacey Abrams (who doesn't hold a current elected office, and feels like a stretch nominee to me still) and Val Demings. Demings is still more plausible than most (I think she's actually being considered, though not as seriously as some on this list right now), but I don't know enough about Orlando politics to be able to wager a guess at who might run in a special election to replace her.
So for the remaining seven women, I want to discuss three things. Who would be the potential replacement for them immediately in the Senate? Would that person be able to clear-the-field, or would they invite a competitive primary? And finally, would the Republicans have anyone that might be able to beat them either in a special, or in 2022 during Biden's first midterms? This is a bit of speculative fun, but it should be taken seriously by anyone who is tweeting "Pick X" as the real world ramifications of whom presidents pick for the Senate can have lasting consequences.
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| Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV) |
The Potential Vice President: Catherine Cortez Masto, first elected in 2016
The Replacement: We'll start with the Senator from Nevada, still one of the least-known of the women that feel very plausible for the US Senate (my vote is she's in the Top 3). In recent years, appointed senators have been strongly encouraged by both Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer to be people who will stand for reelection, so only in two special circumstances below am I considering "caretaker" appointments. Governors have also picked major figures in their administration, particularly their LG's (Tina Smith, John Walsh, Brian Schatz), to go into the Senate in the past decade. Gov. Sisolak is in a weird position where, however, he didn't run for office with a running-mate, as Nevada governors don't run with Democratic LG's. That might not stop him from naming the Democratic LG (Kate Marshall), but I kind of wonder if this is the final chance that Rep. Dina Titus, who endorsed Steve Sisolak in his competitive 2018 primary, might finally get a chance at statewide office after losing a close 2006 election for governor and sitting out the 2016 & 2018 Senate races to avoid an inter-party conflict.
Is There a Primary?: The irony here is that Titus would almost certainly invite an inter-party conflict, particularly if Harry Reid has anything to say about it. It's possible that Reid would be enough of an obstacle to remove Titus from the equation (he did successfully in 2016 & 2018, did not in 2012), but Reid might want to put the finger-on-the-buzzer for a Democrat. Rep. Steven Horsford and LG Kate Marshall have both been favorites of Reid's for a decade, and would surely be on a shortlist for Cortez Masto's seat. If Reid puts the pressure on Sisolak (whom he did endorse in 2018's primary as well) to pick one of these two, though, keep in mind these conversations could reverse-Titus doesn't have a plausible shot at the governorship, and has wanted statewide office for a while. She's also defied Reid's orders before (in 2012), and might do so again setting up a competitive primary against a Sen. Marshall or Horsford.
The Republicans: The biggest question that we'll have for the Republicans is around former Governor Brian Sandoval. There are Republicans who might make this competitive in a midterm if Biden is particularly unpopular (this is still a light blue state, and a figure like former Sen. Dean Heller or Rep. Mark Amodei should be taken seriously in that environment), but Sandoval would start out a favorite over all Democrats. He's turned down the opportunity to run for the Senate (2016), when he would have been the favorite for the seat, so it's possible he doesn't want this position. But this is enough of an issue that if CCM is Biden's running-mate (or quite frankly, to protect her reelection, even if he isn't), Sandoval would be one of the few Republicans I'd consider giving a spot in a Biden administration (give him his pick of ambassadorships).
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| Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D-MN) |
The Potential Vice President: Sen. Amy Klobuchar, first elected in 2006.
The Replacement: Klobuchar's stock has risen in my opinion in the past few weeks, to the point I'd probably be including her in the Top 3 most likely running-mates for Biden, maybe even Top 2. She also hails from the state I live in, so I feel like I can state with more confidence who would be her replacement. Gov. Tim Walz has made a point in his first two years in office to put LG Peggy Flanagan in the front of a lot of different conversations about public policy, and she's become more visible than your average lieutenant governor. Combined with that increased visibility is the fact that Minnesota recently had a Senate vacancy, and the lieutenant governor that was picked (Tina Smith) successfully won both the initial primary & the general, and seems probable to win again in November, a good sign for Flanagan's potential. Especially considering Walz will be running for reelection and will want a Senate candidate who will first-do-no-harm to his reelection campaign, Flanagan feels like the safest bet to succeed Klobuchar.
Is There a Primary?: Unlike Smith, I think Flanagan will get some serious competition in the primary. It's not entirely clear if AG Keith Ellison would have won in a less blue midterm or not, but he did prove he can win statewide, and it feels impossible to me that Ellison wants to stay in a lower-grade constitutional office like this for very long after being a prominent figure on Capitol Hill. Klobuchar's seat is the sort of thing he'd pursue, and might have a leg-up on Flanagan in the primary...unless someone like Rep. Ilhan Omar might also run for the office, as she's also a favorite of progressives. Finally, there's the 800-pound gorilla in the race: would Al Franken try to run for this office & seek redemption in DC? I think we need to seriously consider that would happen, and that he'd be the heavy favorite in a primary with Democratic voters who didn't want him to resign in the first place.
The Republicans: Against Flanagan, I think she'd be the favorite. Against any of the other three names I listed, though, Republicans would have a chance-all invite a controversy that would be amplified in a Democratic president's midterm. It's possible, if former LG Michelle Fischbach wins against Collin Peterson, that she'll be in an intra-party primary against either Rep. Tom Emmer or Pete Stauber, likely leading to one of these three going for the Senate seat. My guess is that Stauber, in particular, has to be eyeing higher office.
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| Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) |
The Potential Vice President: Sen. Maggie Hassan, first elected in 2016.
The Replacement: Here's where things get properly tricky. If Maggie Hassan pulls off an upset victory and runs with Biden (he clearly likes her-if he could just pick his running-mate in November, I think she'd be in the Top 3), the governor who picks her replacement is actually TBD since that office is up in November & Hassan could wait to resign as her term as VP wouldn't start until after the new governor was sworn in. Gov. Chris Sununu is the favorite at this point for the November governor's race, and I'm going to assume wins reelection with his current approval ratings, but if Hassan is on the ticket, and knowing that her Senate seat would be in jeopardy, anything could happen (I also said the same thing about Bernie Sanders impact on the VT governor's race when he was running for POTUS). There isn't a wide bench in New Hampshire for Sununu to select from, to be honest. There are no other statewide elected offices other than Governor and the two Senate seats, so there's not a giant swath of options for Sununu there. Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte might be interested (she'd certainly be on any person's shortlist), but I am going to bet on Jayne Millerick, who is Sununu's Chief of Staff and has been a prominent member of the New Hampshire GOP for decades.
Is There a Primary?: For the Republicans, no, but that doesn't mean that Millerick is the nominee. The reason I say that is because Sununu is considered a potential challenger against Hassan already for 2022, and without her in the race, I think he'd make the plunge and try to follow in his brother's footsteps into the US Senate (his brother John was a US Senator from 2003-2009). Millerick would be a decent choice to run for the seat, and maybe even would take a crack at the governor's mansion (Ayotte would also be an option for that race), but Sununu will get his first chance at either of those two offices from the Republicans (he's not prohibited from a fourth term by term limits), and I suspect considering his power in the state, that the GOP would defer to his choices in both.
The Democrats: Rep. Annie Kuster has to be considered at this point the top choice for the New Hampshire Senate seat the next time one opens up. She's gained more power in DC, she's survived a tough midterm (2014), and despite a lot of ambition, probably doesn't have a lot of other options if she wants to get a promotion considering she'd be in her mid-60's when this seat opened up. Rep. Chris Pappas could also consider a run here, but especially if they're taking on Sununu they'd want a unified front, so I think Kuster would be the nominee.
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| Mayor London Breed (D-CA) |
California
The Potential Vice President: Sen. Kamala Harris, first elected in 2016.
The Replacement: Oh boy, here's a list of Democrats. Honestly, the bench in California is so absurd that postulating on whom Gov. Gavin Newsom might pick is an exercise that could take up this whole article. I'm going to add two points here that might argue in favor of a specific name. One, despite the fact that they aren't elected together, Gavin Newsom and LG Eleni Kounalakis have a long-standing professional relationship that extends back to when he was Mayor of San Francisco, and that might help give her a leg up in the contest; she was also a member of the Obama/Biden administration (Ambassador to Hungary), and Newsom might want to appoint a senator who would quickly give him another in with the White House. There's also the fact that San Francisco/Oakland has a weird hold on major statewide offices in California (Harris, Newsom, and Sen. Dianne Feinstein all hail from this region of the state), so San Francisco London Breed would also be someone who might have an in with Newsom in a way other prominent Democrats do not (like Kounalakis, she was also an appointee during his time as mayor).
Is There a Primary?: Yes. Statewide offices in California rarely open up, and after the one-two punch Harris & Newsom pulled (basically arranging so that they wouldn't run for the same statewide office), it's hard to imagine that ambitious Golden State Democrats won't make a play for this office. Toward the top of any list would be Secretary of State Alex Padilla, State Controller Betty Yee, Attorney General Xavier Becerra, Reps. Eric Swalwall, Jackie Speier, & Katie Porter, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, and billionaire financier Tom Steyer who ran for president earlier this year, not to mention of course Kounalakis or Breed if they aren't chosen for the appointment. Some of these people won't want to risk their current offices (all except Breed & Garcetti would be standing for reelection at the time), but I cannot fathom a primary that doesn't have a number of Democratic names.
The Republicans: Honestly, I don't think it'll matter. A Republican will run, certainly, but no Republican short of former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (who has turned down Senate bids before), would be prominent enough to run for the Senate. In all likelihood, we're going to see a repeat of the 2016 & 2018 Senate contests, where two Democrats advance to the general rather than a Republican & a Democrat.
Illinois
The Potential Vice President: Sen. Tammy Duckworth, first elected in 2016.
The Replacement: This is our last of the traditional replacements on this list where a Democrat will definitely replace the incumbent senator. Illinois Democrats, particularly Gov. JB Pritzker, do not want a repeat of the last time a Senate seat was open in Illinois-where the governor ended up in jail and the appointed senator couldn't even stand for a full term there was so much scandal surrounding his appointment. Expect Pritzker to want to appoint a person of color to the seat (particularly to drive up turnout in African-American communities for his reelection), and probably a woman. That math points directly to his lieutenant governor, Juliana Stratton, as the most likely option.
Is There a Primary?: Probably. Stratton, should she be the pick, doesn't have a long list of credentials other than her current perch (she served one term in the Illinois State House, though she did have to beat an incumbent to get that seat), and there's not often openings for the Senate in Illinois. Pritzker's 2018 primary opponents State Sen. Daniel Biss or Chris Kennedy (nephew of President Kennedy) could both be options again, as could Attorney General Kwame Raoul and Rep. Robin Kelly. The biggest question mark, though, would be former Attorney General Lisa Madigan. Wildly popular, with a father who basically runs Illinois (House Speaker Mike Madigan), she has refused repeatedly attempts to run for higher office due to her father's influence, but if the elder Madigan, who will be 80 in 2022 when this election were to happen, decides to hang it up, it's possible the younger Madigan could run (and if she's open to it, would also be a very plausible option for the appointment).
The Republicans: Similar to California, there's not a lot of options here for the Republicans. Most of their best candidates (people like former Lt. Gov. Evelyn Sanguinetti or former Rep. Sean Casten) have lost their most recent elections. It's probable that one of the Illinois US House seats will disappear after the census-depending on how you gerrymander, that could make it so that a Republican goes on a quixotic bid for the Senate (perhaps Reps. Darin LaHood or Adam Kinzinger), but the state is very blue statewide, even in a Democratic midterm.
The Replacement: Oh boy, here's a list of Democrats. Honestly, the bench in California is so absurd that postulating on whom Gov. Gavin Newsom might pick is an exercise that could take up this whole article. I'm going to add two points here that might argue in favor of a specific name. One, despite the fact that they aren't elected together, Gavin Newsom and LG Eleni Kounalakis have a long-standing professional relationship that extends back to when he was Mayor of San Francisco, and that might help give her a leg up in the contest; she was also a member of the Obama/Biden administration (Ambassador to Hungary), and Newsom might want to appoint a senator who would quickly give him another in with the White House. There's also the fact that San Francisco/Oakland has a weird hold on major statewide offices in California (Harris, Newsom, and Sen. Dianne Feinstein all hail from this region of the state), so San Francisco London Breed would also be someone who might have an in with Newsom in a way other prominent Democrats do not (like Kounalakis, she was also an appointee during his time as mayor).
Is There a Primary?: Yes. Statewide offices in California rarely open up, and after the one-two punch Harris & Newsom pulled (basically arranging so that they wouldn't run for the same statewide office), it's hard to imagine that ambitious Golden State Democrats won't make a play for this office. Toward the top of any list would be Secretary of State Alex Padilla, State Controller Betty Yee, Attorney General Xavier Becerra, Reps. Eric Swalwall, Jackie Speier, & Katie Porter, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, and billionaire financier Tom Steyer who ran for president earlier this year, not to mention of course Kounalakis or Breed if they aren't chosen for the appointment. Some of these people won't want to risk their current offices (all except Breed & Garcetti would be standing for reelection at the time), but I cannot fathom a primary that doesn't have a number of Democratic names.
The Republicans: Honestly, I don't think it'll matter. A Republican will run, certainly, but no Republican short of former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (who has turned down Senate bids before), would be prominent enough to run for the Senate. In all likelihood, we're going to see a repeat of the 2016 & 2018 Senate contests, where two Democrats advance to the general rather than a Republican & a Democrat.
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| Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D-IL) |
The Potential Vice President: Sen. Tammy Duckworth, first elected in 2016.
The Replacement: This is our last of the traditional replacements on this list where a Democrat will definitely replace the incumbent senator. Illinois Democrats, particularly Gov. JB Pritzker, do not want a repeat of the last time a Senate seat was open in Illinois-where the governor ended up in jail and the appointed senator couldn't even stand for a full term there was so much scandal surrounding his appointment. Expect Pritzker to want to appoint a person of color to the seat (particularly to drive up turnout in African-American communities for his reelection), and probably a woman. That math points directly to his lieutenant governor, Juliana Stratton, as the most likely option.
Is There a Primary?: Probably. Stratton, should she be the pick, doesn't have a long list of credentials other than her current perch (she served one term in the Illinois State House, though she did have to beat an incumbent to get that seat), and there's not often openings for the Senate in Illinois. Pritzker's 2018 primary opponents State Sen. Daniel Biss or Chris Kennedy (nephew of President Kennedy) could both be options again, as could Attorney General Kwame Raoul and Rep. Robin Kelly. The biggest question mark, though, would be former Attorney General Lisa Madigan. Wildly popular, with a father who basically runs Illinois (House Speaker Mike Madigan), she has refused repeatedly attempts to run for higher office due to her father's influence, but if the elder Madigan, who will be 80 in 2022 when this election were to happen, decides to hang it up, it's possible the younger Madigan could run (and if she's open to it, would also be a very plausible option for the appointment).
The Republicans: Similar to California, there's not a lot of options here for the Republicans. Most of their best candidates (people like former Lt. Gov. Evelyn Sanguinetti or former Rep. Sean Casten) have lost their most recent elections. It's probable that one of the Illinois US House seats will disappear after the census-depending on how you gerrymander, that could make it so that a Republican goes on a quixotic bid for the Senate (perhaps Reps. Darin LaHood or Adam Kinzinger), but the state is very blue statewide, even in a Democratic midterm.
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| Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito (R-MA) |
Massachusetts
The Potential Vice President: Sen. Elizabeth Warren, first elected in 2012.
The Replacement: Right now, Warren is the only person on this list that would be guaranteed to be replaced by a Republican, arguably the most important reason for Biden not to select her (it would be heartbreaking if the Democrats netted the three seats for the Senate they needed and had to give one up because Warren was the VP, particularly if Biden won by enough of a margin that his running-mate clearly didn't matter). My gut says that Baker would be very cautious in whom he would select, likely a Republican in his administration rather than a member of the state legislature (there are no other statewide elected Republicans), and likely a woman (similar to recent Republican appointments in Mississippi & Georgia). The two best bets would be his LG Karyn Polito or his Chief of Staff Kristen Lepore.
Is There a Primary?: No, there would not be, but like New Hampshire, this doesn't mean that Polito or Lepore would be the nominee. Baker is wildly popular (at times during his tenure he's been the most popular governor in America), and is in his second term. Now, Baker can run for a third term, but if he has any designs on federal office, this would be the place to do it. Scott Brown proved that you can't automatically assume you'll win in Massachusetts if you're a Democrat, and so Baker as a Senate candidate would have to be taken as seriously as we consider Steve Bullock, at least. Without Baker in, Polito or Lepore would be considered severe underdogs.
The Democrats: Loads of options here, but I'll list three. If Rep. Joe Kennedy somehow doesn't win his primary against Sen. Ed Markey (he's the favorite, but not yet a lock), he'd be an idiot not to quickly get into this race, as without it his political future would be over (the bench in the Bay State is way too thick for the Democrats for him to be able to handle being out of office for longer than a year without becoming an afterthought). Considering her House seat wouldn't be at risk, I doubt that Rep. Ayanna Pressley wouldn't seriously look at this contest as well, particularly with her strong working relationship with Warren. And then there's Attorney General Maura Healey, who clearly wants to be governor at some point, but considering Baker's popularity, would surely have to look at this seat if he wasn't in the contest, as she may not want to wait much longer to make a play at the national stage.
Wisconsin
The Potential Vice President: Sen. Tammy Baldwin, first elected in 2012.
The Replacement: Wisconsin is weird, because the replacement, initially, would be no one. Wisconsin is one of five states that don't allow the governor to replace a US Senator, even temporarily, and so Baldwin's seat would be open until Gov. Evers called a special election, which would be in the early spring.
Is There a Primary?: Hard to tell. I honestly don't know who would be the nominee for the Democrats for this seat, and indeed, this is a conversation we're going to need to have as Ron Johnson's seat is up in 2022, so Democrats are going to need someone to run for the Senate soon. I doubt it'd be Sen. Russ Feingold or Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, since both have suffered multiple statewide losses in the past decade, but they're still young enough that they might see this as an opportunity. Evers' LG Mandela Barnes is a possibility, particularly considering that he wouldn't put his seat at risk, as would be Attorney General Josh Kaul and Rep. Ron Kind (again, neither would be risking their seat in a special election), but the bench is pretty paltry for the Democrats, which may be one reason why Baldwin would be a tough pick-like Warren, she'd be putting her seat immediately at risk.
The Republicans: Well, the first name we have to address here is former Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. Walker has stated he won't run for Johnson's seat, but that doesn't mean that he wouldn't be hugely persuaded to run here. Only 52-years-old and with the Koch financial machine behind him, it's hard to imagine Walker is done with electoral politics, and a US Senate seat, particularly one where he'd be favored in a special election, would give him the kind of perch that could launch another presidential bid. Reps. Glenn Grothman, Sean Duffy, or Mike Gallagher would all be options as well, but Walker would get rite-of-first-refusal, and he'd be an idiot not to consider the position.
The Replacement: Right now, Warren is the only person on this list that would be guaranteed to be replaced by a Republican, arguably the most important reason for Biden not to select her (it would be heartbreaking if the Democrats netted the three seats for the Senate they needed and had to give one up because Warren was the VP, particularly if Biden won by enough of a margin that his running-mate clearly didn't matter). My gut says that Baker would be very cautious in whom he would select, likely a Republican in his administration rather than a member of the state legislature (there are no other statewide elected Republicans), and likely a woman (similar to recent Republican appointments in Mississippi & Georgia). The two best bets would be his LG Karyn Polito or his Chief of Staff Kristen Lepore.
Is There a Primary?: No, there would not be, but like New Hampshire, this doesn't mean that Polito or Lepore would be the nominee. Baker is wildly popular (at times during his tenure he's been the most popular governor in America), and is in his second term. Now, Baker can run for a third term, but if he has any designs on federal office, this would be the place to do it. Scott Brown proved that you can't automatically assume you'll win in Massachusetts if you're a Democrat, and so Baker as a Senate candidate would have to be taken as seriously as we consider Steve Bullock, at least. Without Baker in, Polito or Lepore would be considered severe underdogs.
The Democrats: Loads of options here, but I'll list three. If Rep. Joe Kennedy somehow doesn't win his primary against Sen. Ed Markey (he's the favorite, but not yet a lock), he'd be an idiot not to quickly get into this race, as without it his political future would be over (the bench in the Bay State is way too thick for the Democrats for him to be able to handle being out of office for longer than a year without becoming an afterthought). Considering her House seat wouldn't be at risk, I doubt that Rep. Ayanna Pressley wouldn't seriously look at this contest as well, particularly with her strong working relationship with Warren. And then there's Attorney General Maura Healey, who clearly wants to be governor at some point, but considering Baker's popularity, would surely have to look at this seat if he wasn't in the contest, as she may not want to wait much longer to make a play at the national stage.
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| Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D-WI) |
The Potential Vice President: Sen. Tammy Baldwin, first elected in 2012.
The Replacement: Wisconsin is weird, because the replacement, initially, would be no one. Wisconsin is one of five states that don't allow the governor to replace a US Senator, even temporarily, and so Baldwin's seat would be open until Gov. Evers called a special election, which would be in the early spring.
Is There a Primary?: Hard to tell. I honestly don't know who would be the nominee for the Democrats for this seat, and indeed, this is a conversation we're going to need to have as Ron Johnson's seat is up in 2022, so Democrats are going to need someone to run for the Senate soon. I doubt it'd be Sen. Russ Feingold or Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, since both have suffered multiple statewide losses in the past decade, but they're still young enough that they might see this as an opportunity. Evers' LG Mandela Barnes is a possibility, particularly considering that he wouldn't put his seat at risk, as would be Attorney General Josh Kaul and Rep. Ron Kind (again, neither would be risking their seat in a special election), but the bench is pretty paltry for the Democrats, which may be one reason why Baldwin would be a tough pick-like Warren, she'd be putting her seat immediately at risk.
The Republicans: Well, the first name we have to address here is former Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. Walker has stated he won't run for Johnson's seat, but that doesn't mean that he wouldn't be hugely persuaded to run here. Only 52-years-old and with the Koch financial machine behind him, it's hard to imagine Walker is done with electoral politics, and a US Senate seat, particularly one where he'd be favored in a special election, would give him the kind of perch that could launch another presidential bid. Reps. Glenn Grothman, Sean Duffy, or Mike Gallagher would all be options as well, but Walker would get rite-of-first-refusal, and he'd be an idiot not to consider the position.
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