Monday, February 10, 2020

Thoughts from a First-Time Undecided Voter

Tomorrow is the New Hampshire Primary.  And in three weeks, we will have Super Tuesday, where I will be voting.  I have voted in, by my count, at least three caucuses (I cannot remember if I voted in the 2012 caucuses since it was a foregone conclusion for Obama and I don't believe in being a "disrupter" of elections).  In all of those caucuses I voted for someone that would ultimately lose my home state of Minnesota, and in all but one of those cases, I voted for someone that would not be the Democratic nominee for president.  However, 2020 marks a new chapter for me not just because I'm voting in a primary (hooray!) but because with three weeks left, I am something I've never been this close to an election-undecided.

This hasn't been the case all year, and it's not me being a pain-in-the-ass (at least that's not my intention).  By-and-large I'm someone who is very decisive, particularly for elections.  I look at the facts, determine who is best based on my views (and equally important, who has the best chance to win), and vote.  I don't believe in casting protest votes in competitive elections (I have, on occasion, cast protest votes when the nominee was a foregone conclusion such as the 2004 presidential primaries or the 2008 Senate primary because I wanted to make a stand), and this is certainly a competitive primary so I have every intention of voting for someone whom I think can win.  But of the candidates still in the race, I either cannot decide if the candidates I like are viable or who the "best of the worst" is for me of the remaining candidates who do seem viable.

This is a bummer, because a lot of the 2020 presidential candidates I was thrilled about.  I was very ready to vote for Kirsten Gillibrand and Kamala Harris, before they dropped out.  I grew to admire Jay Inslee & Beto O'Rourke...but then they dropped out.  I've always had respect for men like Cory Booker or Julian Castro...but then they dropped out too.  At this rate, I honestly don't know that any of the remaining candidates would make my Top 5 overall for 2020, and certainly wouldn't be on my Top 3.

Headed into Iowa, I had kind of made up my mind to vote for either Joe Biden or Elizabeth Warren in Minnesota, whichever stood the best chance at winning  (I like Amy Klobuchar, but she has not proven herself viable in any fashion to actually win, and I don't see that changing).  Biden is, in my opinion, not ideal as he's too old to be the nominee and has never had the fire in his belly necessary to win a primary (which became clear when he got destroyed in Iowa).  However, he reminds me a lot of George HW Bush, who was less a winner and more a way for voters to extend the Reagan years (but in the process he still won, and winning is the most important thing for me when someone like Donald Trump is your opponent).  People talk about how Biden is winning based on name recognition, and I don't entirely think that's the case-I think he does so well in matchup polling because people view him as "four more years of Obama," which sounds incredibly appealing to a lot of Americans even if there's a group of Democrats who would like to go further left.

Warren, on the other hand, has proven herself to be arguably the best potential president in this crowd.  I worry about her being too left-leaning for Wisconsin & Michigan, but honestly-she's done very well with addressing those concerns head on, and she's folksier than someone like Al Gore or John Kerry, and could overcome the anti-intellectual campaign that would be headed her way.  She has proven to be a candidate that could tie together all of the ends of the party, and while I don't agree with her on all issues (and would need someone to figure out how to keep her Senate seat blue), she'd be a candidate that I could vote for with pride.

But Warren & Biden are both teetering between "could be president" and "should drop out," with each passing poll shoving them into the latter camp.  Amy Klobuchar & Tom Steyer haven't caught fire, and honestly I'd never consider Steyer unless I was forced to do so.  While I think Biden ultimately has a shot at the White House (Warren has the steeper climb) thanks to his support amongst black voters, it's entirely possibly in three weeks time that these candidates, the last candidates I could muster even a modicum of excitement for, will be gone come Super Tuesday.

Which leaves us with Bernie Sanders, Mike Bloomberg, and Pete Buttigieg.  Unless Biden or Warren (or, much less likely, Klobuchar) can save me from such a fate, it's possible that on March 3rd the only candidates with a real shot at the nomination will be these three men, three men that I just cannot get excited to vote for.

As a gay man, I want to like Buttigieg, I really do.  I want to see the "next JFK" vibes people attribute to him.  But all I see is someone woefully unqualified to be president and who will struggle to connect with midwestern voters in the way that Biden or Warren or Klobuchar would not (he's a gay Oxford-educated veteran who is barely old enough to remember the Berlin Wall collapsing-you don't think that Trump won't be able to have multiple effective attack lines there?).  I also don't see a way that he'll win the White House.

I arguably agree with Bernie Sanders on more issues than anyone, but I think his campaign is gross.  The demonizing and sexism from his supporters is not coming from Sanders himself, but he has done little to squash it & done much to benefit from it.  In many ways he feels like the Democratic Trump, or worse, the Democratic Jeremy Corbyn.  I don't think a 79-year-old Socialist who recently had a heart attack and has shown almost no ability to change so much as his stump speech will be able to beat Donald Trump, and I worry that not only will he lose, he'll put candidates like Mark Kelly & Cal Cunningham into unwinnable races that someone like Biden or Klobuchar might be able to keep viable.  I also worry that he might be a different kind of horrible if he were to actually win.

And then there's Mike Bloomberg.  Bloomberg on paper makes the most sense.  I think he'd be able to beat Trump.  I think he wouldn't put candidates like Kelly & Cunningham in peril.  And I think he has at least some experience that would be important to becoming president.  But I think the way he's trying to become president is morally repugnant, and something I would struggle to put my name behind.  Unlike Tom Steyer, Bloomberg is basically abusing his massive net worth to buy the race, spending money that other candidates simply cannot afford to scoop up, say, delegates in a state such as Arkansas (which no one else can afford to have in their window).  He has not shared his vision against his opponents because he's not in the debates (since he isn't fundraising).  There are admittedly appealing aspects of this (if Bloomberg doesn't need to fundraise, that money can be poured into winning Senate & House races in a way that the Republicans simply couldn't compete with), but it also essentially ruins the electoral process because it guarantees that "not every child can become president-only those who are billionaires can do so."  If in three weeks I feel like Bloomberg is the only candidate who can win (that these three are the only viable options and Buttigieg & Sanders have not assuaged my fears), I might vote for him, but man will I feel dirty afterwards.  I'd feel considerably more comfortable voting for a dedicated public servant like Biden, Klobuchar, or Warren than giving the Oval Office away to the highest bidder, which is what a vote for Bloomberg is.

So I'm honestly undecided.  I'm praying that Biden or Warren are still options in three weeks, but I'm not voting for them if they're just on the ballot because they can't admit they can't win-I'm voting for someone that can actually become the nominee.  So I sit and wait, nervously wondering if I'm going to become one of those people who says "lesser of two evils" on election day rather than feeling good about where my vote is cast.

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