If you're new around here, I use these articles to rank the candidates based on how likely they are to be the Democratic nominee for president, but today we're going to amend this for two reasons. One, I think it's becoming increasingly clear that the Democratic nomination battle of 2020 might be headed into uncharted territory, as the frontrunner is now someone whose candidacy is built on a very specific deck of cards, and shuffling those could be a big hit to his campaign. And two, I think the concept of a contested convention is no longer a political junkie's wet dream, but instead could become reality if the Democratic Party continues to be torn in 4-5 different directions (and key players don't drop out). In fact, I would put "contested convention" at at least #5 on this list, and possibly as high as #3 if I was ranking such a possibility. A contested convention is still clickbait, so I'm going to skip it for now, but almost anything could come out of such a contest (including unity tickets, candidates who dropped out already, or even candidates who never ran such as Hillary Clinton or John Kerry being the nominee). But for now, let's focus on the race at hand. I will be telling not only the ranking, but what I think would need to happen for the candidate to be the nominee (and not just "do well").
Honorable Mention: Amy Klobuchar and Tom Steyer will not be the Democratic nominee. But that doesn't mean they aren't important. There are clear candidates who are gaining from their presence in the race (namely Bernie Sanders & Mike Bloomberg) and clear candidates who are losing as a result of them still being in the race (namely Pete Buttigieg & Joe Biden). If they dropped out last week, we'd have a very different New Hampshire & South Carolina primary (honestly if neither were in this race today, I'd have a different #1 on this list), but as-it-stands they are nothing more than (important) spoilers without any shot at the White House in 2020.
Thoughts: Warren has slid up and down this list so many times I am keeping this five-wide in part due to sentiment and in part due to me counting her out always proves me wrong and never her. That being said, her campaign is in trouble. Iowa she got a respectable third place, and could well get another respectable third place in New Hampshire, but that's only good if you want to "meet expectations," not if you want to eventually become the president. Warren cannot continue to collect bronze medals and stay in this race, or maintain viability.
What She Needs: Warren's going to, quite frankly, need a miracle. Polling in New Hampshire has been rough for her, and it's probably a state she at least needs to beat Bernie Sanders in in order to maintain viability. South Carolina & Nevada are not going to open many doors for her, and while I think she'd have a decent Super Tuesday (she might even win a state like California), the stalled media momentum will hurt her there, especially if Sanders beats her in all four early states. Warren's best shot might be as a consensus candidate at the convention (Warren/Buttigieg or Biden/Warren, perhaps?), but counting on a contested convention is a pipe dream, and she'll need delegates to get there. She won't have enough unless she gets a "W" soon. (Previous Ranking: 3)
Thoughts: Bloomberg might be running the savviest campaign of the year, or he may be an idiot. It's hard to tell right now, because skipping the early states would be a death knell for anyone who doesn't have $20 billion worth of resources to get into the later states, but Bloomberg has that. He won't be an option, though, if there's no lanes for him to run in, and while his polling standings have improved (he's as high as third in some national polls), third is not good enough to actually matter even if you buy every commercial in America.
What He Needs: Why Bloomberg looks good right now is because the thing he needs is for Joe Biden to fall, and that's what's happening. Bloomberg does well with black voters, and is the most likely candidate to pick up this crucial Super Tuesday voting demographic if Biden were to be in an actual free fall (and not just a "bad week"). If Biden crashes, Bloomberg can pick up both black voters and "electability" voters who might have given Warren a second look, but aren't going to be big on either Buttigieg or Sanders. If Biden rebounds, Bloomberg's entire strategy gets thrown asunder as he ain't picking up the Bernie Bros considering his moderate politics & background. (Previous Ranking: N/A)
Thoughts: Buttigieg has had arguably the best week of any candidate since Iowa. His numbers in New Hampshire are running up, to the point where he might pull off an upset over Bernie Sanders, and he came away with at least something of a victory in Iowa. Buttigieg's biggest deficits remain too many moderate candidates (Klobuchar, Biden, & Bloomberg voters are all potential places he should be able to get votes but hasn't been able to yet) and his continued under-performance with voters of color, which even with Biden support slipping just hasn't been an option for the South Bend mayor.
What He Needs: Buttigieg needs to win New Hampshire outright. I think he's in until Super Tuesday, but if we're talking crossing the line from "better than expected" to the "Democratic Nominee for President," a line I think Buttigieg could conceivably cross, he needs to start taking out candidates as he can't beat Sanders in a fractured race. Winning both Iowa & New Hampshire might be what Buttigieg needs to get a second look from Latino & African-American moderates, as he'll have proven his electablity by overcoming the odds twice. If that happens, this becomes a completely different race. (Previous Ranking: 4)
Thoughts: Biden might surprise you to be this high, as some have already started to write his political obituary, and honestly I could be wrong here in displacing Buttigieg & Bloomberg in favor of Biden. That being said, I think Biden has a couple of things going for him. For starters, he's still in the Top 2 in national polls, and is still leading in South Carolina. A comeback in that state, especially considering Iowa was such a disaster, will help him reframe the narrative headed into Super Tuesday, a day when places like North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama, & Arkansas could all help give Biden a major boost, possibly even making up for most of the Sanders' delegate math if Biden does well enough. This ranking is of the candidates most likely to be the next Democratic nominee, and while I think Biden is closer to 3rd than 1st on this list, I still think he's the best-positioned to beat Bernie Sanders...if anyone is going to beat Bernie Sanders.
What He Needs: A big, gigantic win in South Carolina. New Hampshire matters, and getting a respectable third might help (he's not going to get that though-he'll be lucky to not get fifth), but South Carolina is where his race is going to be repositioned. This will require him to not hemorrhage black support and to win or at least come close to winning Nevada. Steyer could act as a spoiler here (as could Bloomberg & Sanders) so if Biden is getting a "barely there" win or even a "close second" he's finished. Biden has not done well when it comes to "must hit" goal posts this cycle, but South Carolina will make-or-break his campaign. He must deliver a decisive victory to stay in the game. (Previous Ranking: 1)
Thoughts: Sanders has everything he needs to win the Democratic race. Despite a swath of anti-Bernie voters that refuse to acknowledge it, his five-year campaign to become the Democratic nominee in Iowa paid off, and in particular the implosion of the Warren campaign (and to a lesser degree, the Biden campaign) has put him in the driver's seat. Sanders is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, and while he's not in John Kerry in 2004 or Hillary Clinton in 2016 position yet, he's getting dangerously close to being Barack Obama in 2008.
What He Needs: Status quo. Let's say on Wednesday Warren & Klobuchar thought they couldn't win, and suddenly dropped out, or by Super Tuesday it became clear that Biden was the most likely person to beat Sanders-Sanders would suddenly become very vulnerable. Sanders only has a shot at this because the race is fractured. He needs it to stay fractured at least through Super Tuesday so he can be the "frontrunner" through a large enough number of states that it would take something weird to best him. Sanders essentially needs several politicians in the next few weeks to put their own beliefs above their egos-that's not a bet anyone should make. (Previous Ranking: 2)
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