But there are three governor's races up in 2019 that I think are worth discussing, particularly since they have a recurrent them, and so we're going to give them their due (as well as the hugely consequential Virginia legislative elections) today with some analysis, predictions, and a guide for you to watch the returns on Tuesday. All the states have election night closures before 7 PM CST, so it'll probably be an early night for me on Tuesday, and I'll include the Louisiana race even though it's not for a couple of weeks (and we might get some indications on how it'll go on Tuesday). Without further adieu...
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| Attorney General Andy Beshear (D-KY) |
Arguably the election that has the most national interest in it, Kentucky will host a governor's election on Tuesday between incumbent Republican Matt Bevin and sitting-Attorney General Andy Beshear (D), the son of popular former governor Steve Beshear. You're going to notice a theme between these three governor's races this year-all three take place in very red states (these states are all going for Trump in 2020 by double digits), all feature Republicans who are either unpopular or survived bruising primaries, and all have Democrats putting up solid, Tier 1 candidates, a big deal for a cycle where usually the Democrats only attempt to play in maybe 1-2 races. The big question here is whether or not Republicans will hold their noses and vote for Matt Bevin, who as recently as July polled as the least popular governor in the country, or whether they try someone new like Beshear, a trusted brand in Kentucky, but a Democratic brand in a state that has shown an increasing unwillingness to split their ballots. Trump knows that he can score some political wins on Tuesday night in a time when he needs them, and has been campaigning hard to sweep these three offices. Arguably Kentucky is the biggest question mark, because it will likely be a battle more of Trump Support vs. Bevin Hate, but considering the most recent non-partisan poll shows a tie, and a tie usually goes to the state's national inclinations, I'm going to predict a mild Bevin win here. If Beshear does take it, look to see if he can also carry the open races for Secretary of State and Attorney General, two key offices in the Bluegrass State where the Democrats put up solid challengers (former Miss America and former Second Lady of Kentucky Heather French for SoS and former House Speaker Greg Stumbo for AG), but might be swept away if Kentucky gets rid of its last specks of blue.
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| Eddie Rispone (R-LA) |
Louisiana is odd in that it's entirely possible we don't know all of the pieces yet to see if the Democrats can win. The contest between Gov. John Bel Edwards (D), who won four years ago thanks to the weird delayed disgust against Sen. David Vitter and his prostitution scandal (something no one seemed to care about in 2010 when he faced Rep. Charlie Melancon in a bid for reelection in the Senate, despite having the full story at that point), and Republican businessman Eddie Rispone has been an odd one. Edwards is popular in Louisiana, but he's also a Democrat (albeit a conservative one that would run to the right of someone like Susan Collins on a number of issues), and he's not Donald Trump's preferred candidate, and Trump is well liked in the Pelican State. Polling has shown Edwards ahead over Rispone for pretty much the entire race, but the margin has closed, and Trump seems to want to take all three of these races, and personal appearances by the president in red territory have been effective in GOP turnout in recent weeks (Trump is expected to be in Monroe, Louisiana, before the election for a rally). If Edwards loses, Trump can rightfully take credit, but it's also possible that Tuesday's elections could matter, as a Republican wave might ease pressure on Edwards (similar to how Mary Landrieu won the 2002 runoff) or a Democratic victory in Kentucky might increase GOP fervor to get Trump a win in Louisiana. It's possible that even if Edwards does win that the Louisiana state legislature will earn a veto-proof majority, basically turning the governor into a figurehead.
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| AG Jim Hood (D-MS) |
Of the three gubernatorial contests, Mississippi seems the least likely to go awry for the Republicans. Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Bryant is not eligible to run for reelection (term limits), and both sides ended up with their preferred candidate. Republicans went with Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves, a longtime local politician (he's held some statewide office since 2004), and is the sort of boring, scandal-free candidate that should be able to hold a red state unless something odd happens. Democrats went with the last Tier 1 candidate they have left in the Magnolia State, Attorney General Jim Hood, who became a statewide official the same year as Reeves, and has held the AG's office for 16 years. Hood is the only Democrat (other than Doug Jones) to hold statewide office in the Deep South, and is literally the only Democrat that has even the remotest chance at winning the seat. However, polls have shown Reeves with a consistent lead for the past month or so. Complicating matters is that Mississippi has a weird (probably unconstitutional, but who knows in the Court of Brett Kavanaugh), rule about a candidate having to win the most state legislative districts, so even if Hood were to win the majority somehow, he might still lose the election...but that would be decided by the courts. Hood's likely loss basically puts the Democrats in a situation where they may not have a single plausible contender to hold statewide office in the near future just a year after Mike Espy did better than any Democrat for the Senate since 1982.
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| Shelly Simonds (D-VA) |
If Democrats are hoping to have at least some good news on Tuesday night, it will come in the Old Dominion, and it might be the most meaningful election on the ballot considering the long-reaching effects. This is because both Gov. Ralph Northam and Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax (both involved in scandals last year that have seemingly slipped off the radar...for now, at least), are not on the ballot. As a result, there is no risk of the Democrats losing these offices, and so if they can win the State Senate and General Assembly, they will control Virginia during redistricting for the first time in decades. This would allow them to shore up recently elected candidates like Reps. Elaine Luria & Abigail Spanbarger, and potential even expand their congressional hold in the state. The State Senate seems the likelier of the two to flip, as the Democrats need just one seat, and this body hasn't had an election since Trump took office (so there's more chance for the suburban shift to take hold). Republican incumbents like Glen Sturtevant (10th district) & Siobhan Dunnavant (12th) both represent districts that Hillary Clinton & Ralph Northam won (Northam won Sturtrevant's seat by 15-points), and an open seat (the 13th) in the Northern Virginia exurbs (an area swiftly turning blue) could also provide Democrats with a pickup. Rounding out the list of Senate candidates most likely to be "the one" is the 7th district, where an open seat pits naval nurse Jennifer Kiggans (R) and State Rep. Cheryl Turpin (who is the only Democrat who won a State House district won by Donald Trump in 2017, and ambitiously is already running for a promotion). This is a marginal race, so watch to see if Turpin wins it's probably a sign the Democrats are winning both legislatures with relative ease.
The General Assembly they need to win at least one seat, probably two (one seat would be a power-sharing tie). The lower house had court-ordered maps so we're getting a different playing field than two years ago, but is the tougher flip for the Democrats since they did so well two years ago (winning 15 seats). At the very top of the list of candidates most likely to pickup a seat is Shelly Simonds (94th), whom you might remember from two years ago was the woman who lost in a "tie" even though she probably won since one of the ballots should have been deemed illegal. Republicans currently hold seven seats that were won by Hillary Clinton that are worth looking at, including the 66th where House Speaker Kirk Cox is up. If the Republicans take a seat, it'll be the 85th, Cheryl Turpin's open seat, where the man she beat in 2017 (Rocky Holcomb) is running again and might benefit from name recognition.
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