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| Gov. Matt Bevin (R-KY) with President Trump |
While I don't think that we can infer a lot from whether or not Trump will win reelection (I owe this blog an article about the recent string of polls showing Trump in a better position against Democratic frontrunner Elizabeth Warren, but that'll probably be out next week), last night was an indication of how he could be looking at a big loss next year. The headline victory was in Kentucky, where Attorney General Andy Beshear (D) overcame the state's solid red tint to beat incumbent Gov. Matt Bevin. Never mind that Bevin was wildly unpopular, likely headed to a loss due to his attacks on teachers and the state's popular Medicaid program, and that Trump probably helped him by nationalizing the race in the waning days of the election. Trump is on-record as saying that he wanted the Kentucky Republicans to do him a personal favor and reelect Bevin...and they didn't. This is a sign that Trump's coattails might not extend much past himself, and could be trouble for candidates like Martha McSally & Thom Tillis who are counting on them next year. Trump will get a chance to redeem himself slightly a week from Saturday when Gov. John Bel Edwards stands for reelection, but how much will he want to put his neck on the line after he asked the voters for a win and they made him a loser?
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| Senate Maj. Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) |
Trump's lack of coattails aside, it's worth remembering that Bevin was the only statewide Republican who went down last night in the Bluegrass State. Democrats lost the Secretary of State's office and the Attorney General's office despite putting up solid candidates, and it's not like they didn't score the campaign lottery with Beshear-a candidate with an A+ last name who held the easiest launchpad into the governor's mansion, and who was up against a governor who was as popular as indigestion. This is all to say that while the daydream for Democrats that this could mean Mitch McConnell's defeat next year is alluring, it's not practical. McConnell is unpopular, but federal elections are more likely to stay straight-ticket (Trump is still winning this state in 2020), and Amy McGrath is hardly as strong of a candidate as Beshear. The more likely question mark will be around McConnell's majority, as if Trump has limited-to-no-coattails, the above-mentioned Tillis and McSally will be vulnerable since they seem to be under-performing him in polls. McConnell might not lose next year, but his power would be significantly reduced if he loses his majority, which feels very much in play at this point.
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| Superior Court Judge-Elect Megan McCarthy King (R-PA) |
Pennsylvania Democrats had (with one exception) an awesome evening. Delaware County, adjacent to Philadelphia in the suburbs, went hard blue last night, with the Democrats sweeping the County Council. They also took the majority in nearby Bucks & Chester Counties, and the GOP couldn't even get a spot on the At-Large City Council in Philadelphia, a seat reserved for minority parties, as they lost to a third-party candidate in a city so blue the Republicans aren't even second place anymore. This is a big deal, as Democrats desperately need to put Pennsylvania back in their column next year after it went red in 2016, and should be some comfort to the party. That being said, they did lose one statewide election-the Superior Court races remained too close to call, but it appeared that the Democrats would only take one of the two seats (Pennsylvania has partisan judicial elections), as while Daniel McCaffery (D) was the biggest vote getter of the day, Republican Megan McCarthy King (R) bested the other Democrat Amanda Green-Hawkins. Had both McCaffery and Green-Hawkins won, it would have been enough to get the Democrats a majority. Considering these were the only statewide races last night in the Keystone State, Democrats should be hopeful but cautious considering they still failed to win both races.
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| State Sen-Elect Ghazala Hashmi (D-VA) |
The state they should feel more confident about is Virginia. The Old Dominion was nothing but a home run for the Democrats last night, as the party took over the last vestiges of power in the state with majorities in the State Senate and General Assembly. It's hard to imagine, but just a decade ago the Republicans had won decisive victories for Gov/LG/AG, and people were assuming that President Obama's win there in 2008 was something similar to Indiana (a fluke). Now the Democrats hold every statewide office, including both Senate seats, and no Republican has won statewide since 2009. This could be critical from a policy perspective, as the Democrats will now be able to enact progressive reforms for women's health, LGBT rights, immigration, and a host of other issues. They will also control redistricting, which could involve them taking on even more seats in the coming elections post the census redistricting, and could shore up recently elected Reps. Elaine Luria & Abigail Spanbarger, who are in Trump seats but (provided they make it through 2020) would surely get easier districts going forward. And in a truly seismic moment, Virginia will likely become the 38th state to ratify the Equal Rights Amendment, meaning that the coming congress will have to vote on a wildly popular constitutional amendment, and either ratify it (making our first amendment in almost 30 years) or have Senate Republicans not pass it and risk an emboldened electorate who supports the bill.
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| Mayor-Elect Brandon Whipple (D-KS) |
The final election of the cycle I want to discuss is, on the surface, seemingly minor. While Wichita is the largest city in the state of Kansas, it's not a metropolitan area that frequently makes the news. But last night State Rep. Brandon Whipple (D) walloped incumbent-Mayor Jeff Longwell (R) to become the state's biggest city mayor. Whipple's win is curious because Kansas has been a strange abnormality in the Trump years. After a decade of an unpopular Republican governor, Trump's approval ratings in the state are about even, unexpected for a state as ruby red as Kansas, and last year the Democrats ousted an incumbent member of Congress (giving Kansas its first House win since 2008), and won the governor's mansion after eight years in the wilderness. Next year, the Republicans have a competitive primary that could well give the man who lost that governor's race, former Secretary of State Kris Kobach, the nomination again, which would leave the GOP vulnerable as the Democrats picked a stellar recruit for 2020-State Sen. Barbara Bollier, a moderate Democrat who this time last year was a moderate Republican. Bollier is uniquely qualified to talk to voters about how she "used to feel at home in the GOP, but not any longer," a message that will resonate with an electorate that votes red, but dislikes Brownback & Trump. Bollier, if she were to win, would need massive turnout in the Kansas City suburbs and Wichita-Whipple's win last night proved that the momentum is there if there's a candidate who can reach the rest of the state. Bollier might be positioning herself to the be the Heidi Heitkamp (circa 2012) of the 2020 cycle if she can get her ducks in a row. If she won, she'd make history-no Democrat has won a Kansas US Senate seat since 1932.
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