The State of the Governors

To kick off the 2019/2020 political cycle, we have now taken a year-out look at the races for the White House, Senate, and House (both Democrats & Republicans), which means that we just have the governors before I let my ranking percolate for a wee bit.  That's not to say we won't continue to discuss politics in the next few months (we will, as candidates announce, and there's always room for some trivia articles), but for the most part these races won't change that much in the coming months until we see genuine candidate progress in the race for the White House and as we see the actual candidates in the down-ballot races.  For now, though, I want to get year-out ranking for governor before we close.

You'll notice that I only list five seats below, and this is on-purpose, as the bulk of gubernatorial elections occur in off-year elections, not in presidential or odd-numbered races.  We will only see 14 states have elections either this November or next, and because there is a stronger correlation to presidential elections for these cycles, they don't have as much turnover or as much opportunity for party-switching.  Honestly-if we looked at last year, only maybe the first three races on this list would appear remotely as competitive as the Top 10 of 2018.  Still, these are important seats, all of which will have a play in redistricting in their states as well as governors that will either work with an emboldened President Trump or a new Democratic president, so they are worth discussing.  As always, the #1 choice is the seat I think is most likely to flip.

Attorney General Jim Hood (D-MS)

Honorable Mention: There are two seats that could eventually make it onto this list, but only if their circumstances alter a bit.  The first is Vermont, where Republican Gov. Phil Scott needs to run for a third term in 2020.  Scott is popular, and Vermont has a history of reelecting their Republican governors, but he's also going to have to share a ballot with Donald Trump, and while Scott has been one of the most forceful GOP opponents of the president, he still is a member of the same party and surely a Democrat will try to link them.  The second is Mississippi, where Gov. Phil Bryant (R) is term-limited.  Normally I'd say this is an easy hold for the Republican (there's a number of candidates, but LG Tate Reeves is probably the frontrunner), but the Democrats have a really, really good candidate in AG Jim Hood, who is one of only three Democrats in the Deep South who holds statewide office.  Hood is the underdog, but he's a serious candidate and if his black voter turnout is similar to Doug Jones in Alabama (which is a further-right state than Mississippi), he could be formidable.  The question is whether or not he's Laura Kelly or Drew Edmondson, and we won't have the answer for a few more months.

Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH)

5. New Hampshire

New Hampshire is, in a lot of ways, similar to Vermont in that both states are left-leaning with popular Republican governors.  The problem is that while Scott won by double digits, New Hampshire had a closer election against a third-tier Democratic candidate.  New Hampshire is also notoriously vulnerable to swings, especially from the left; this is how Craig Benson lost in a huge upset in 2004.  New Hampshire hasn't really solved their recruitment issues yet (there's no clear favorite for the primary, though Executive Councilor Andru Volinsky is no slouch), but Sununu hasn't had to share the ballot with President Trump yet, and there's a question of how many people will vote, say, Sanders/Sununu at the end of the day.  My guess is it's not a long list, and as a result Sununu stays here even though the fundamentals of this race do favor him.

Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC)

4. North Carolina

Roy Cooper is, in a lot of ways, just an inverse of Sununu.  The first-term governor appears relatively popular in the Tarheel State, but he's also running for governor in a state that, at least on paper, starts out a favorite for the opposite party in the race for the White House.  Cooper, like Sununu, has defied such odds before (in 2016, Donald Trump and Roy Cooper both won in the state), but he's never done so with a President Trump in tow, which could carry more weight and more partisanship.  Republicans will have to sort out their primary issues here, with former Governor Pat McCrory looking increasingly likely to enter, though as Tim Pawlenty proved last year, that's hardly a guarantee of a win in the primary, and it's doubtful LG Dan Forest will step aside for McCrory, but unless things change there will need to be some Trump/Cooper voters for the Democrat to remain in power-just how many will decide if he's a mild favorite or if he's a one-term wonder.

Gov. Matt Bevin (R-KY)

3. Kentucky

In a party with a lot of renegades, few governors approach that title with as much gusto as Matt Bevin.  He was a surprise victor in the primary four years ago, and then pulled through in the general despite his nasty relationship with Kentucky power-broker Mitch McConnell.  This year he's have an easier time in the primary (though he still has challenges), but he's not popular, and the Democrats have a few good candidates (for my money I think that AG Andy Beshear is the best option, and quite frankly I think former State Auditor Adam Edelen is a fool for pursuing this rather than a Senate run or lower office as he'll be finished with another loss on his resume).  Kentucky has elected Democrats to this office recently (Beshear's father preceded Bevin), but it's also a state that is notorious for hating their incumbents but reelecting them anyway (Mitch McConnell is frequently the least popular senator in the country...and still wins by double digits).  Beshear vs. Bevin could be the nastiest governor's race of the cycle, but it won't be clear until the summer if it will be one of the closest.

Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA)

2. Louisiana

John Bel Edwards in 2015 needed a perfect storm to win a state as ruby-red as Louisiana.  He required a wildly unpopular governor and an opponent that would be easy to vilify; he found both in Bobby Jindal and David Vitter, respectively.  In 2019, he'll be the incumbent so it'll be easier, but this is still a very red state that he'll be running against President Trump in (Trump, sensing the opportunity to beat a Democratic governor, will no doubt become a fixture in the Bayou come the fall).  Rep. Ralph Abraham is the biggest announced name in the GOP race, but he could be joined by former Reps. Charles Boustany and John Fleming before the year is over.  The Democrats will probably want to try and avoid a runoff, as it'll be there best shot (historically, though not always, an incumbent who goes to a runoff in Louisiana tends to lose).  I'd bet slightly on Edwards right now, but that could change as the year progresses-he'll need to win over a lot of people who will vote for Donald Trump a year later in order to take this seat.

Attorney General Tim Fox (R-MT)

1. Montana

This is the only race on this list that, if the election were held today, I'd wager would switch parties.  Gov. Steve Bullock is term-limited, and his party doesn't have an obvious successor to him.  The Democrats could go with former Gov. Brian Schweitzer, arguably their best option, but he's been reluctant to run for office since he left the governor's mansion (he's turned down multiple runs for the Senate and the White House), and I wouldn't count on him to be the savior here.  Without him you have LG Mike Cooney as a theoretical successor, and he'd probably get the nomination, but lieutenant governors are notoriously rotten candidates to succeed their bosses, and the Republicans have two top candidates of their own in AG Tim Fox and SoS Corey Stapleton.  Fox is the better candidate (Stapleton lost a race for governor in 2012 and another race for the House in 2014), but he'll have to make it through a primary to get there.  That primary is about the only thing the Democrats could point to as a saving grace-it's probable the race between Fox & Stapleton gets dirty, especially if Rep. Greg Gianforte (he of "punch a reporter" fame) also gets into the race.  But messy primaries aren't the death knell that most common wisdom suggests, and I'd bet this is a loss for the left with Trump sure to win the state next November.